Mike Huckabee: The Howard Dean of 2008?

PowerLine ^ | 12/7/07

[LdSentinal]

Mike Huckabee's sort-of-meteoric rise continues, as Newsweek now has him running away with the Iowa caucuses. So is Huckabee becoming the phenomenon of 2008, as Howard Dean was in 2004?

There are some superficial similarities. Dean and Huckabee are (or were) relatively little-known governors of small states. Each appeals to an important part of his party's base on issues that other candidates have skirted, or on which they are at least less rabid. So is it likely that Huckabee will take off as Dean did, before his collapse in, coincidentally, Iowa?

I doubt it, for several reasons. First, while Huckabee is doing very well in Iowa and surprisingly well in national polls, he is second tier in almost all of the early primary states other than Iowa. In the current RealClear Politics standings, he is a distant fourth in New Hampshire, barely on the charts in Michigan, nowhere in Nevada, and lagging badly in Florida. Granted, he is competitive in South Carolina. But as actual returns begin to come in, attention will focus on the candidates who win. Outside of Iowa, that's unlikely to be Huckabee.

Second, Howard Dean's special genius--or, more likely, Joe Trippi's--was fundraising on the internet. So far, Huckabee has shown little ability to raise money, on the internet or elsewhere.

Third, and most important, there are severe limitations on Huckabee's appeal to Republican voters. Howard Dean made his name as an antiwar candidate, but his other positions were also reliably liberal. Huckabee's record, on the other hand, is mixed. On fundamental issues like taxes and immigration his record is not at all conservative, and, not only does he have zero experience in foreign policy, his comments on security issues have been less than reassuring. As Republican voters learn more about Huckabee, most of them will like him less, not more.

Of course, this evaluation omits one important factor: Huckabee is an infinitely more skilled politician, and more likable guy, than Howard Dean. That gives him a fighting chance. But whether it will be enough to carry him anywhere near the nomination is another story.

[lookout88]

No, the Jimmy Certer of 2007

[PeterFinn]

Trashing on Huckabee just as he starts to move up in the polls smacks of political wonkery. PowerLine is probably *afraid* of Huckabee thus the smear equating him to Howard Dean. Dean was the media darling right up until the votes were counted and the scream broadcast.

Huckabee is a curiosity to the media who are seeking ways to explain away his sudden and meteoric rise in their polls.

If you're going to equate him with a Democrat I'd compare him to Bill Clinton who was in 3rd and rising in most polls going into Christmas of 1991.

[MittFan08]

“Granted, he is competitive in South Carolina.”

Competitive? Rasmussen’s poll yesterday showed Huck *leading* in South Carolina.

[RichInOC]

I wouldn’t say that. Howie was at least good for comic relief.

[goldstategop]

Howard Dean was just plain nuts, a goofy candidate with a screw loose. Mike Huckabee is a likeable guy who is a populist. I would describe as conservative only on guns and abortion and more liberal on government spending and immigration. There's no comparison between the two apart from a meteoric rise to national prominence. What the Hawkeye Cauci will reveal is whether Mike has any real momentum beyond Iowa. Dean's now famous scream finished him off there. Its still too early to tell to whom the GOP race will go at this time.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[MinuteGal]

It's the dance you should know when the lights are down low
Grab your stylus, then poke, poke for Hucklebuck, poke for Hucklebuck
Push your stylus in, then you pull it back
Have a little movement in your sacroiliac
Wiggle like a snake, wobble like a duck
That's the way you'll vote when you vote for Hucklebuck

Leni

[FreedomProtector]

Romney/Guiliani have skewed numbers because of their fundraising $ and MSM attention for the past 12 months.

What is remarkable about Huckabee is his surge with very little funds. The more intersting question is where would Huckabee be now w/ similar funds?

1) The futures markets have Huck winning Iowa and South Carolina.

2) Southern and western governors and Vice Presidents get elected. Truman, Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush.

Senators and congressman and northern governors don’t. Dewey, Stevenson, Goldwater, Humphrey, McCarthy, Ford, Mondale, Dukakis, Dole, Gore, Kerry.

3) If Huck wins South Carolina and Iowa, it is likely that some heroic yet underperforming candidates will exit the race. If that happens then the pro-life vote won’t be split between several candidates. Rudy could be swamped at that point.

[Laptop_Ron]

I see Huckabee as another George Bush—with better oratory skills. I don’t think Huck will see a spending bill cross his desk that he doesn’t like, nor an illegal alien cross the border that he doesn’t like. Just an impression.

[Def Conservative]

LOL, this is great for Rooty. Huckabee’s surge will know out the other social conservative candidates, and when Rudy gets to the west and east coast, he’ll obliterate that Huckster. Maybe he’ll get a nice VP slot!

We’ll have a social liberal and a fiscal liberal on our 2008 ticket. LOL, at least the old Rockefeller republicans will be kinda happy...

[timer]

Huckabee is rising above the herd because real folks see him as one of them. Chuck Norris sees it, millions of others do as well, a regular guy you can relate to. No, no great foreign policy expert, shortcomings in several key areas that a president has to be competant in, but someone you know in your gut is the right kind of guy you want in the oval office.

Historically it would be funny : Bush I, then a former Arkansas gov, then Bush II, then a former Arkansas gov...

[fluffdaddy]

Howard Dean’s candidacy didn’t fall apart because he had a screw loose. That’s what so many Democrats liked about him. His candidacy came apart because it wasn’t credible. When push came to shove, almost nobody thought he was equipped to be President. Huckabee faces the same limiting factor. He is much too liberal lightweight to be a plausible candidate and he can’t sustain the scrutiny of a front runner. I very much doubt he finishes better than third in any state. He’s good enough to flirt with but Republican primary voters (and caucus goers) are much to sensible to marry him.

[jmyrlefuller]

I was thinking Pat Robertson... former preacher, does well in Iowa, then crashes to the ground.

[org.whodat]

but someone you know in your gut is the right kind of guy you want in the oval office.

Not in your wildest dreams would I want to see that nanny stater open border loon in office.

[KevinDavis]

I see Huckabee as a busybody.. He wants to raise taxes on Cigarettes.. Plus I don’t vote for Baptist anyway.. Since Clinton and Carter where Baptist Presidents..

[Callahan]

I see Huckabee as another George Bush—with better oratory skills. I don’t think Huck will see a spending bill cross his desk that he doesn’t like, nor an illegal alien cross the border that he doesn’t like. Just an impression.

Your comparison to Bush is right on. The difference is Bush had the establishment behind him and Huckabee is an outsider. I think Huck also proves that the abortion/faith issue cuts deeper than immigration.

[Laptop_Ron]

Well, Huck is still going through his Obama Stage where people are hearing one or two things that sound real good (abortion stance), but haven’t heard the whole pitch yet.

The Howard Dean comparison is unfair. Dean was a nut-case. Huckabee is not. Besides, wasn’t Dean getting all that support from the internet? I don’t see Huckabee getting that kind of support. Just mostly from conservative bloggers. Ron Paul is supposedly getting lots of internet $$, I think.

[Kevmo]

bmflr

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

[scrabblehack]

I think Ron Paul is the Howard Dean of ‘08 — the coffee shops around here are full of his supporters.

[Callahan]

This Huckabee surge is forcing us to confront that there is a breed of Republican voter out there that doesn’t mind bigger government as long as it’s applied from a Christian perspective. We’re going to find out exactly how many of those types Rove brought on board in 2000 and how far they will carry a guy like Huck.