The Flaws In the Iran Report (John Bolton Reports)

Washington Post ^ | December 6, 2007 | John R. Bolton

[Anti-Bubba182]

Rarely has a document from the supposedly hidden world of intelligence had such an impact as the National Intelligence Estimate released this week. Rarely has an administration been so unprepared for such an event. And rarely have vehement critics of the "intelligence community" on issues such as Iraq's weapons of mass destruction reversed themselves so quickly.

All this shows that we not only have a problem interpreting what the mullahs in Tehran are up to, but also a more fundamental problem: Too much of the intelligence community is engaging in policy formulation rather than "intelligence" analysis, and too many in Congress and the media are happy about it. President Bush may not be able to repair his Iran policy (which was not rigorous enough to begin with) in his last year, but he would leave a lasting legacy by returning the intelligence world to its proper function.

Consider these flaws in the NIE's "key judgments," which were made public even though approximately 140 pages of analysis, and reams of underlying intelligence, remain classified.

First, the headline finding -- that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 -- is written in a way that guarantees the totality of the conclusions will be misread. In fact, there is little substantive difference between the conclusions of the 2005 NIE on Iran's nuclear capabilities and the 2007 NIE. Moreover, the distinction between "military" and "civilian" programs is highly artificial, since the enrichment of uranium, which all agree Iran is continuing, is critical to civilian and military uses. Indeed, it has always been Iran's "civilian" program that posed the main risk of a nuclear "breakout........"

[Anti-Bubba182]

There is no doubt that the Intelligence community wants to feather its own nest at the expense of the Bush administation. I don't know what can be done about it when even illegal leakers are rarely found and prosecuted. The system is toxic.

[exit82]

The CIA and the State Department need to be flushed like a toilet.

They are vile, anti-American organizations and I have no trust in them—at all.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

This is absolutely the most hideous thing the Leftists have done in some time....clearly demonstrates their callous disregard for this country and our allies...

[america4vr]

This report is unmitigated, brazen mendacity. It defies everything about what Iran has so palpably demonstrated in diametric opposition. This is an utter travesty that unravels the only realpolitik
approach to stopping Iran.

[Lancey Howard]

The CIA and the State Department need to be flushed like a toilet.

Add to that the UN and you have a winning trifecta.

[SierraWasp]

I can’t add anything to that, except for what’s in my tagline... Besides we needed to purge these pukes when George took office with his new broom... But, NO! We had to try for that “new tone in Warshington!” Phhhhhhhhhhht!!!

[shield]

Another attempt to push their commie lefty views/policies...they've lost on every turn...Bush has always been the winner...as Reagan did against the commies...truth in the end always wins...and we've had complete truthfulness from both of those administrations.

Then you compare the pathological liars as the clintoons' both are and have been. The comparison is light vs darkness...good vs evil...

[Brad from Tennessee]

“It defies everything about what Iran has so palpably demonstrated in diametric opposition.”

And it defies common sense. If Iran halted its weapons program in 2003 it seems like the Iranian leadership would use that to avoid the sanctions, as a diplomatic bargaining chip, and as propaganda. They could have gotten all kinds of goodies out of the U.S., the Europeans and maybe the Gulf countries. Instead they have put themselves in the cross-hairs of the U.S. and Israel—who still may attack them at any time.

[SoCalPol]

The Flaws In the Iran Report (John Bolton Reports) ping

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From the captain's Quarters:

When Did Fingar Change His Mind?

*************************EXCERPT***********************

One of the main authors of the recently-released NIE on Iran sang a different tune to Congress less than five months earlier. Thomas Joscelyn at the Weekly Standard notes that Thomas Fingar testified to the completely opposite conclusion on July 11th, 2007 -- that Iran continued to pursue nuclear weapons. This tends to substantiate that the change in posture came very recently:

[Anti-Bubba182]

This is part of election year shenanigans where bureaucrats make new friends.

[america4vr]

And it defies common sense.

Couldn't agree more. These Iranians are the wiliest, most nefarious bunch of gangsters that's for sure. Their foreign policy moves have been overwhelmingly successful, Hezbollah in Lebanon, bombings of
US, Israeli interests, Iraq.

Why this abandonment to acquire nuclear weaponry in the face of what has been one foreign policy success after another in a regime hell-bent to wreak as much havoc as possible?

I am overwhelmingly perplexed, stymied by what has been the unraveling of the only way to stop Iran.

[Colorado Doug]

One would think that in two terms Bush would have cleaned out this cesspool. I am sick of reading about matters of national security in newspapers. How hard can it be to stop this? I haven’t heard of a single prosecution. What? Does the Administration like to be made a fool of?Our government is rotting from within. Fire someone already!!

[Mogollon]

We need a conservative president to fire all the leftist clinton hold-overs in the CIA.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Ernest!

[Brad from Tennessee]

Fortunately, after the partisan sound-bites are over, even the liberal news media is skeptical about this report. They are beginning to dissect it and will soon discredit it thinking it might embarrass Bush. Hans Blix claimed today that the U.S. intelligence community doesn’t want to take the blame for a new war so they reversed their assessment. Mohamed ElBaradei said the U.S. is being “more generous” in its assessment of Iranian nuclear activities than the U.N. They’re both saying it’s bogus.

[Anti-Bubba182]

If they are civil service, they can’t be fired easily.

[dr_lew]

What hath God wrought?

[Brad from Tennessee]

I don’t know but it is amazing when two U.N. figures who both tout the NIE report as a giant Valium for the Mideast hint in the same interview that the assessment is a charade.

[JasonC]

Well, the people could refuse to ever vote for another leftist. Might get their attention. Not holding my breath, but it is not like they have any magical ability to mess things up, absent the full consent of the American people to be royally messed up by them. In other words, lots of escapist fools want their lies to be true, that is the real cause of their existence.