Iran NIE Is Not A Typical Intel NIE

Wild Speculation Alert: I have listed a lot of coincidental and circumstantial evidence in this post folks. I feel compelled to warn everyone when I see links to this NIE and Valerie Plame!

It seems the NIE was NOT a consensus view of the US Intelligence Community but a hack job by some folks with possible political aspirations (wonder what CNN debate these folks will turn up in):

A highly controversial, 150 page National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear programs was coordinated and written by former State Department political and intelligence analysts — not by more seasoned members of the U.S. intelligence community, Newsmax has learned.

Its most dramatic conclusion — that Iran shut down its nuclear weapons program in 2003 in response to international pressure — is based on a single, unvetted source who provided information to a foreign intelligence service and has not been interviewed directly by the United States.

H/T Reader Kathie. No NIE Key Judgments would EVER be based on a single source that had not been vetted. Even the Israelis believe Iran has restarted their weapons program. Is someone trying to pull a Curveball on the US again? I mean this sounds like your classical “slam dunk” - doesn’t it? Well there are political animals sprinkled all through the Federal Government - and this one just went too far:

The National Intelligence Council, which produced the NIE, is chaired by Thomas Fingar, “a State Department intelligence analyst with no known overseas experience who briefly headed the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research,” I wrote in my book “Shadow Warriors: The Untold Story of Traitors, Saboteurs, and the Party of Surrender.” [Editor’s Note: Get “Shadow Warriors” free — go here now.]

Fingar was a key partner of Senate Democrats in their successful effort to derail the confirmation of John Bolton in the spring of 2005 to become the U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations.

As the head of the NIC, Fingar has gone out of his way to fire analysts “who asked the wrong questions,” and who challenged the politically-correct views held by Fingar and his former State Department colleagues, as revealed in “Shadow Warriors.”

In March 2007, Fingar fired his top Cuba and Venezuela analyst, Norman Bailey, after he warned of the growing alliance between Castro and Chavez.

Yeah, like there is no bond between Chavez and Castro. I am looking into the names of the folks behind this NIE. They look to be targets of the left most of the time, but I did find some interesting points. It seems Fingar is more of an Academic than one would suspect:

Six months later, Director George Tenet delivered the CIA’s conclusion in testimony before the Senate: Contrary to its own earlier analysis, the CIA now believed that North Korea would test an intercontinental missile in the “near future.” In response to this new threat, the Clinton administration earmarked $6.6 billion over five years to develop a missile-defense system.

Over at the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), analysts argued that the North Koreans were much farther off than the CIA believed. North Korea could potentially threaten the United States within a decade “only if it abandons its current moratorium on long-range missile flight testing,” Tom Fingar, then-acting principal deputy assistant secretary of INR, testified before Congress in February 2001. Although the White House and Congress accepted the CIA’s analysis, INR ultimately proved to be correct. In the five years since Tenet’s testimony, North Korea has yet to test an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Second, INR gets a different kind of analyst. The CIA, under the gun to staff up mightily after its ranks were thinned by budget cuts in the 1970s and 1990s, tends to recruit kids right out of college and train them in their new “specialties.” (All new CIA hires must be under 35 years of age, although that requirement is occasionally waived.) And while the CIA’s young analysts occasionally travel to their countries of responsibility and bone up by reading at their desk, they have little first-hand experience of their regions. INR couldn’t be more different. Among the civil servants who make up two-thirds of its staff are many scholars lured out of the academy who come with years of knowledge. Fingar is one of them: He spent a decade-and-a-half as a scholar at Stanford’s U.S.-China relations program, speaks fluent Mandarin, and has traveled widely in China. The other third of INR’s staff are Foreign Service officers rotating through who usually have spent several diplomatic tours in the country or region they are focusing on at INR, and who thus have both a reservoir of knowledge about its personalities and history, and a deep well of personal contacts.

Whoever wrote this really had it wrong on North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile tests - they have been trying. Just not succeeding. But one thing is clear, Fingar is a hang-on from the Clinton days. And everyone should recognize the initials INR from the Plame Games.

So what about Kenneth Brill? Well, he also has some interesting intersections with Plame and Wilson - he worked with Joe Wilson at State. More than that he claimed in 2005 that Iran has lied to fit the facts on its nuclear weapons programs:

Following disclosures of previously undeclared nuclear activities, in March 2004, Brill said, “The Iranians change their stories to fit the facts.” He added, “I think it’s striking that the more the agency learns, the more the Iranians have to change their stories,” and he predicted the IAEA would have to deal with Iran “for many years to come.”

Needless to say he too is a Clinton holdover. My guess is we will discover these folks linked to the last big INR/CIA intel leak - the Wilson claim that Bush and Cheney used forged documents to go into Iraq. The timing is way too similar.

DNI Negroponte is appointing Kenneth C. Brill, a frequent antagonist of Bush administration hardliners on policies toward North Korean and Iraq, to the new post of director of the National Counterproliferation Center, an Executive Level II job that outranks undersecretaries, the Washington Post reported.

Is the timing of these old Clinton hands coming out with this stuff tied to the coming election? Hmm,….

Thomas Fingar, like a number of members of John Negroponte’s inner circle, hails from the State Department. He led the department’s intelligence unit, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), which raised some of the strongest objections to the determination by the CIA and others that Iraq was trying to build nuclear weapons rather than enhancing its conventional arsenal. The twist of fate in Fingar’s new job will not be lost on intelligence observers.

Recall Plame was heading up the entire Intelligence Community’s Joint Task Force on Iraq and WMDs at the time I believe Fingar was at INR. If Fingar was one of those few, like Plame, claiming Iraq was NOT attempting to acquire nuclear weapons then they would become fast allies in the small IC world. These two people rubbed shoulders - trust me. It is no secret the INR Fingar led played such a central role in Wilson’s trip as well. Coincidence? And now we come back to the big mystery of the Wilson trip to Niger - why DID the IC debrief Joe Wilson at his house with Valerie when he came back from Niger? Why not bring him in? And who were the two INR/CIA folks at the debriefing (and possibly provided corroboration to the Kristof pieces when Joe was still anonymous)?

When this report came out I was furious.... it just had to be the liberal career analyst’s attempt at 11th hour subterfuge of Bush’s foreign policy goals.... either that or a coordinated ruse to give the USS Truman’ strike force a small degree of operational surprise.

Then I swung to the other extreme..... with reports of the Russian fuel rods being sealed and ready for transport to the Bushehr, the time had arrived for Bush to strike or punt..... the one thing this pacifist report accomplishes is it gives Bush political cover NOT to fulfill his promise of taking out Bushehr before it goes critical. Now Bush can point to this report as tying his hands from finally acting......

.....having slept on it now.... I have another theory.

Its still no coincidence that this declassified report was released the day after the Fuel Rods were sealed and the Truman made it a threesome in the Arabian Sea.

This report has caused an “Oh S%$t” moment in the Capitals of Israel, Europe, The Gulf Arabs, and Turkey.....they were all counting on the US to do the dirty work again..... this report lit a fire under their arses.

What was going to happen if the US destroyed the Mullah’s Nuclear and Military infrastructure in an unprovoked attack?

Not only was the American Left going to go apes$*t..... but the entire world was going to ostracize us for doing the right thing.

What was Iran planning to do in response? They were going to lob long-range missiles and Hezbos at Israel (which any damage caused would be seen as our fault).... and they were going to use their shorter-range assets to swarm US naval assets in the Gulf..... and also target allied bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Iran, and Qatar. (any collateral civilian damage they caused would be blamed on us as well)

NOW..... this pretty much assures an Israeli strike on at least Bushehr..... they have to..... their survival hinges on it. They have already started the “our intelligence is different, and we have to act on our intelligence” rhetoric..... and there appears to be a sudden rift between America and Israel.

There have been rumors of Israel being told “you’re own your own” since Cheney visited the region a few months back. Suppose Bush knew that the fuel rods leaving Russia was going to be the trigger for an Israeli strike on Bushehr. He has this report released.... makes a public spectacle of our new position, and the political rift with Israel. (He’s planning a trip to Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Ramallah?). Has the Mullahs and Liberals hailing this change of attitude, mocking him for having his hands tied.......... and the Israel attacks Bushehr.

We join the chorus of Arab and European cowards immediately condemning Israel....... WHAT IS IRAN GOING TO DO NOW?

Assuming they dont have an operational Ukrainian nuke, they are going to lob a large portion of the long-range conventional warheads at Israel (Dimona?), and Israel’s Patriot and Arrow batteries are going to intercept them over Jordan.....the world clamors for a ceasefire.

But the Iranians have been gearing up for years for a short-range response in the Gulf. Are they still going to launch attacks against US interests in the region? You know they’re gonna wanna. They’ve waited all their lives for this moment to attack the great Satan.

Let say we just happen to have a soft target of opportunity floating around just outside Iranian waters.....are they going to be able to resist attacking it? We’re an innocent 3rd party now...... we are condemning Israel and calling for calm like everyone else.....and the Iranians just attacked us first (real or fabricated) ........is that the moral high ground I see off to starboard?

Well we just have to something about that wont we.....cause we’re the innocent victims of Iranian aggression now. What do the liberals and the UN expect us to do .... not respond with total devastation?? What idiot in congress would oppose a response to such an unprovoked attack in an election year?

Its a win-win situation. Either we get to sit back and watch Israel, with perhaps some European, Arab, or Turkish assistance, take care of the problem for us....or we get to open up a can of return fire across Persia and no one can reasonably complain.

Truly a picture that should hang in all Museums of Art. LOL!
As for this latest fiasco to muddle the waters for the gross masses, in hopes somehow one of the two Commies representing the demowits will gain points toward a bid for the POTUS, let us hope enough counter analysis shall be made public to at least make people wonder just how accurate this supposed joint effort by some 16 American Intelligence Agencies somehow came to the conclusion the Iranians simply stopped very expensive programs regarding nuclear weapon manufacture.
Clearly the job of more fair minded and responsible journalist (there are a few out their yet, thank God), can somehow bring out in general terms how this latest suspect assessment really should be viewed at best as a political ploy from the far left.
It is beyond ludicrous at this point to believe what is being broadcast as a accurate assessment of the Iranian nuclear weapon research program.
They invested huge amounts of money and effort in this pursuit, why on earth would they just stop.
This is paramount to say a loose analogy, well really not so loose, where say the American oil companies in the 1930-1950 period would have simply dropped their efforts to come up with new chemistries, methodologies, manufacturing techniques, etc., in refinery processing, both to produce heating oil, gasoline, aviation fuels, jet fuels, the literally hundreds of fractions that then would be shipped to specialty petrochemical plants to then further use various fractions to create literally thousands of new compounds, say vitamins, all forms of special lubrications, chemicals that are used in vast arrays of chemical processing to create a myriad of plastics.... the lists are long...IMHO... the analogy is on the money.
These goons in Persia have no attentions of not obtaining nuclear weapontry either through their own direct efforts and or a mix of obtaining the raw 87 percent plus levels of weapon grade uranium and highly purified Plutonium to build small and medium size atom bombs.
Anyone that thinks they are not hell bent on this objective must not only have their heads buried in the sand but their whole bodies. Totally insulated from any level of understanding of what has been going down.
Meanwhile the weasels shall work hard at getting that 3,000 plus gas centrifugal system fully operational. They are most probably having problems with the almost junk the Bulgarians shipped to them via. Pakistan sources.
We of course went down that particular path in intensive debates a year back or so. No use having to resurrect arguments as how far along they really are on their uranium enrichment program. It is beating a dead horse. We know they are on the path to enrich their own nuclear fuel. Period.

Good to hear from you. Recovering here, from a string of server crashes, slowly rebuilding ping lists, you’re back on, sorry for the gap.

I’ve been sitting on this one since it came out, since rumors of it surfaced.

Still am.

This NIE changes none of the basic scenarios, though it opens the door to one I’d looked at and discarded, as too unlikely to be worth consideration.

The Iranians might be pulling a Qaddafi, and disarming, voluntarily. Before you snort coffee all over your monitor, consider, they’ve stopped sending IED components into Iraq, pulled their militia leaders back for consultation, and even threatened Ahmadinehad, via Khameinei’s private newspaper.

Agreed, the chances Iran has seen the light are still miniscule, but they have gone from one in a trillion to one in ten billion.

Per George Tenet, an NIE is a multi-tiered document. It can reflect a consensus between various intel gathering services, but it can also mask deep divisions. CIA felt burned when political leaders based decisions on the Key Judgements of the 2002 Iraq NIE, without reading the rest of the 90 page report, where doubts surfaced and were explored, doubts which didn’t make it into the the concise Key Judgement list.

Tenet himself felt he was left holding the bag for all of OIF and the failure to find new WMD caches, when his “slam dunk” comment was portrayed as the sole cause for the rush to war. Bush didn’t play it that way, but Woodward, and to some degree, Cheney, Feith, and maybe Wolfowitz did.

In this new NIE, the Key Judgements read the opposite way, not doubt per se, but decidedly not support for war.

Why?

That’s a huge question. Not least because WE don’t get to see the rest of the NIE, where dissenting opinions are offered, where sources are named, where the logic behind the conclusions is described.

Until we do see the rest of the NIE, we simply do not know what’s going on, not within the intel community anyway.

Don’t know, means don’t know.

That doesn’t, however, mean we’re in the dark.

First off, we can divide all the possibilities behind the NIE into roughly four categories:

1. The NIE is wrong and honest. Iran is still pursuing nukes, and the variants of why the NIE says otherwise include:

A. Iranian disinfo
B. Uncorroborated single point source info
C. Iran farmed out design research to North Korea and core machining/assembly to Syria

2. The NIE is wrong and dishonest. Though touted as a consensus of all US intelligence, NIEs still offer mechanisms where a few like minded individuals can emphasize some intelligence and downplay other itelligence. Tenet spends an entire chapter describing how this works.

This NIE reports high confidence, but at the same time, obviates two or more other and opposite high confidence assessments, and the logic behind this 180 degree U turn is not available in the publicly released Key Judgements.

One MUST consider possible political motivation here.

3. The NIE is correct, but Iran has not capitulated. Iran may have looked at the board and decided to wait, until they have core fuel stockpiled, until a Democrat is in office in the US, until US troops are out of Iraq. Some of the variants here overlap with Option 1.

4. The NIE is correct, and Iran has capitulated. Iran wants to rejoin the circle of nations and end the sanctions, much as Qaddafi did in 2003.

Obviously, option 4 is the best for all concerned.

Bush wins the last major battle in the War on Terror without firing a shot.

The world avoids a war which will probably turn very, very messy before Iran’s eventual defeat.

The largest and longest State Sponsor of Terrorism stops sponsoring terrorism.

But again, don’t know means, don’t know.

However, now we have four models, which we can apply future datapoints to, and begin testing to see which model fits the future most consistently.

The WSJ opinion piece from the past couple days supports a politically motivated NIE.

Bush’s behavior, in at least three different statements by him or his spokesmen, support models 1, 2 and 3, where Iran has NOT capitulated. Bush, if memory serves, was informed of the general support for this NIE in August of this year, and has had plenty of time to assimilate it. Given this, his recent comments carry significant weight.

Ahamdinejad’s comments also support a conclusion that Iran has NOT capitulated.

That’s all the facts I have right now. Additional speculation, regarding the NIE, for now, is worthless.

However, the key question in all this is:

“Will there be war with Iran?”

On that subject we do not have to rely on shadowy intentions.

We know capabilities.

It is heartening to see the NIE state that Iran does not have nukes. If you believe the NIE.

US, British and perhaps German forces are precisely arrayed to defeat any Iranian surprise offensives, and have been moving towards this configuration since January 10, 2007.

If Bush were to order attacks, the last few puzzle pieces would move into place, in the form of significant troop callups, forward deployment of aerial refuelling assets, and placement of carrier battle groups and Marine amphib groups either on station in the AOR or at the periphery, leaning forward. Keep a close eye on 4ID. They got robbed last dance, and they are well equipped.

These traditionally take place shortly after New Year’s and will be in place for a late winter/early spring offensive.

Timing due to a requisite ground component in anticipated attacks, see Oplan 1019 and the Arabian Gauntlet series of exercises for more information.

By the end of January, 2008, I think we will all be 80% sure whether Bush intends to disarm Iran militarily or not. We could see the exact opposite, Patriots and minesweepers and floating Marines returning home instead.

This NIE might be important, will be important in that it changes the political calculus of an attack, however, MANY similar obstacles were put up before OIF and ALL were overcome. Saddam is dead, despite all efforts, foreign and domestic, to keep him alive and in power. If the situation warrants, Bush will keep his promise to prevent Iran from going nuclear, by whatever means necessary.

He may well have already succeeded in this objective. This CANNOT be overstated.

If not, I will categorically state that Israel cannot do this job alone. IAF can barely reach Iran, using every refuelling asset they own, and even then, only with a small strike package.

When we unleashed aerial hell on Iraq in 2003, Iraq was still able to fire missiles, still able to effect command and control, still able to maneuver units at division level and above for some time afterward.

Iran’s missiles are chemically tipped.

About all Israel can do alone, is ensure that the chances of a regional WMD exchance increase geometrically. They MIGHT be able to level specific buildings at Esfahan, Arak and Parchin, they MIGHT even be able to crack the moderately hardened centrifuge hall at Natanz, but that’s it. No missile suppression, no SEAD, no attacks on Pasdaran headquarters, no submarines or minelayers sunk, Iran will retain ALL of their offensive capability after the last IAF aircraft leaves Iranian airspace.

The only way Israel makes a move is unilaterally, in which case the lid comes completely off, or else with the US ready to jump in, within minutes, and the latter CANNOT happen without the endgame maneuvers and deployments taking place shortly after the holidays as described above.

In summary, the NIE is a significant questioin mark, and until we have more facts, speculation regarding the NIE is moot.

But the NIE doesn’t even begin to answer the more pressing questions, and in regards to those questions, none of the possible scenarios, based on the best information available at this moment, have changed in the slightest.

“Wait and watch” is the best I have, for now.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.