When this report came out I was furious.... it just had to be the liberal career analyst’s attempt at 11th hour subterfuge of Bush’s foreign policy goals.... either that or a coordinated ruse to give the USS Truman’ strike force a small degree of operational surprise.
Then I swung to the other extreme..... with reports of the Russian fuel rods being sealed and ready for transport to the Bushehr, the time had arrived for Bush to strike or punt..... the one thing this pacifist report accomplishes is it gives Bush political cover NOT to fulfill his promise of taking out Bushehr before it goes critical. Now Bush can point to this report as tying his hands from finally acting......
.....having slept on it now.... I have another theory.
Its still no coincidence that this declassified report was released the day after the Fuel Rods were sealed and the Truman made it a threesome in the Arabian Sea.
This report has caused an “Oh S%$t” moment in the Capitals of Israel, Europe, The Gulf Arabs, and Turkey.....they were all counting on the US to do the dirty work again..... this report lit a fire under their arses.
What was going to happen if the US destroyed the Mullah’s Nuclear and Military infrastructure in an unprovoked attack?
Not only was the American Left going to go apes$*t..... but the entire world was going to ostracize us for doing the right thing.
What was Iran planning to do in response? They were going to lob long-range missiles and Hezbos at Israel (which any damage caused would be seen as our fault).... and they were going to use their shorter-range assets to swarm US naval assets in the Gulf..... and also target allied bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Iran, and Qatar. (any collateral civilian damage they caused would be blamed on us as well)
NOW..... this pretty much assures an Israeli strike on at least Bushehr..... they have to..... their survival hinges on it. They have already started the “our intelligence is different, and we have to act on our intelligence” rhetoric..... and there appears to be a sudden rift between America and Israel.
There have been rumors of Israel being told “you’re own your own” since Cheney visited the region a few months back. Suppose Bush knew that the fuel rods leaving Russia was going to be the trigger for an Israeli strike on Bushehr. He has this report released.... makes a public spectacle of our new position, and the political rift with Israel. (He’s planning a trip to Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Ramallah?). Has the Mullahs and Liberals hailing this change of attitude, mocking him for having his hands tied.......... and the Israel attacks Bushehr.
We join the chorus of Arab and European cowards immediately condemning Israel....... WHAT IS IRAN GOING TO DO NOW?
Assuming they dont have an operational Ukrainian nuke, they are going to lob a large portion of the long-range conventional warheads at Israel (Dimona?), and Israel’s Patriot and Arrow batteries are going to intercept them over Jordan.....the world clamors for a ceasefire.
But the Iranians have been gearing up for years for a short-range response in the Gulf. Are they still going to launch attacks against US interests in the region? You know they’re gonna wanna. They’ve waited all their lives for this moment to attack the great Satan.
Let say we just happen to have a soft target of opportunity floating around just outside Iranian waters.....are they going to be able to resist attacking it? We’re an innocent 3rd party now...... we are condemning Israel and calling for calm like everyone else.....and the Iranians just attacked us first (real or fabricated) ........is that the moral high ground I see off to starboard?
Well we just have to something about that wont we.....cause we’re the innocent victims of Iranian aggression now. What do the liberals and the UN expect us to do .... not respond with total devastation?? What idiot in congress would oppose a response to such an unprovoked attack in an election year?
Its a win-win situation. Either we get to sit back and watch Israel, with perhaps some European, Arab, or Turkish assistance, take care of the problem for us....or we get to open up a can of return fire across Persia and no one can reasonably complain.
There have been rumors of Israel being told “you’re own your own” since Cheney visited the region a few months back.
Technically Israel has been on its own since last summer when the US tried to limit Israels retaliation for the Hezbollha rocket attacks. The main problem is Israel has enough nuclear warheads to destroy the entire region and affect the entire world with nuclear fallout. Their precarious strategic defense position, requires a quick trip down the yellow brick road to OZ. And if they go Samson, the entire planet will be affected. The situation has to be managed. It could easily get out of control. Especially with the Russians in the mix.
Good to hear from you. Recovering here, from a string of server crashes, slowly rebuilding ping lists, you’re back on, sorry for the gap.
I’ve been sitting on this one since it came out, since rumors of it surfaced.
Still am.
This NIE changes none of the basic scenarios, though it opens the door to one I’d looked at and discarded, as too unlikely to be worth consideration.
The Iranians might be pulling a Qaddafi, and disarming, voluntarily. Before you snort coffee all over your monitor, consider, they’ve stopped sending IED components into Iraq, pulled their militia leaders back for consultation, and even threatened Ahmadinehad, via Khameinei’s private newspaper.
Agreed, the chances Iran has seen the light are still miniscule, but they have gone from one in a trillion to one in ten billion.
Per George Tenet, an NIE is a multi-tiered document. It can reflect a consensus between various intel gathering services, but it can also mask deep divisions. CIA felt burned when political leaders based decisions on the Key Judgements of the 2002 Iraq NIE, without reading the rest of the 90 page report, where doubts surfaced and were explored, doubts which didn’t make it into the the concise Key Judgement list.
Tenet himself felt he was left holding the bag for all of OIF and the failure to find new WMD caches, when his “slam dunk” comment was portrayed as the sole cause for the rush to war. Bush didn’t play it that way, but Woodward, and to some degree, Cheney, Feith, and maybe Wolfowitz did.
In this new NIE, the Key Judgements read the opposite way, not doubt per se, but decidedly not support for war.
Why?
That’s a huge question. Not least because WE don’t get to see the rest of the NIE, where dissenting opinions are offered, where sources are named, where the logic behind the conclusions is described.
Until we do see the rest of the NIE, we simply do not know what’s going on, not within the intel community anyway.
Don’t know, means don’t know.
That doesn’t, however, mean we’re in the dark.
First off, we can divide all the possibilities behind the NIE into roughly four categories:
1. The NIE is wrong and honest. Iran is still pursuing nukes, and the variants of why the NIE says otherwise include:
A. Iranian disinfo
B. Uncorroborated single point source info
C. Iran farmed out design research to North Korea and core machining/assembly to Syria
2. The NIE is wrong and dishonest. Though touted as a consensus of all US intelligence, NIEs still offer mechanisms where a few like minded individuals can emphasize some intelligence and downplay other itelligence. Tenet spends an entire chapter describing how this works.
This NIE reports high confidence, but at the same time, obviates two or more other and opposite high confidence assessments, and the logic behind this 180 degree U turn is not available in the publicly released Key Judgements.
One MUST consider possible political motivation here.
3. The NIE is correct, but Iran has not capitulated. Iran may have looked at the board and decided to wait, until they have core fuel stockpiled, until a Democrat is in office in the US, until US troops are out of Iraq. Some of the variants here overlap with Option 1.
4. The NIE is correct, and Iran has capitulated. Iran wants to rejoin the circle of nations and end the sanctions, much as Qaddafi did in 2003.
Obviously, option 4 is the best for all concerned.
Bush wins the last major battle in the War on Terror without firing a shot.
The world avoids a war which will probably turn very, very messy before Iran’s eventual defeat.
The largest and longest State Sponsor of Terrorism stops sponsoring terrorism.
But again, don’t know means, don’t know.
However, now we have four models, which we can apply future datapoints to, and begin testing to see which model fits the future most consistently.
The WSJ opinion piece from the past couple days supports a politically motivated NIE.
Bush’s behavior, in at least three different statements by him or his spokesmen, support models 1, 2 and 3, where Iran has NOT capitulated. Bush, if memory serves, was informed of the general support for this NIE in August of this year, and has had plenty of time to assimilate it. Given this, his recent comments carry significant weight.
Ahamdinejad’s comments also support a conclusion that Iran has NOT capitulated.
That’s all the facts I have right now. Additional speculation, regarding the NIE, for now, is worthless.
However, the key question in all this is:
“Will there be war with Iran?”
On that subject we do not have to rely on shadowy intentions.
We know capabilities.
It is heartening to see the NIE state that Iran does not have nukes. If you believe the NIE.
US, British and perhaps German forces are precisely arrayed to defeat any Iranian surprise offensives, and have been moving towards this configuration since January 10, 2007.
If Bush were to order attacks, the last few puzzle pieces would move into place, in the form of significant troop callups, forward deployment of aerial refuelling assets, and placement of carrier battle groups and Marine amphib groups either on station in the AOR or at the periphery, leaning forward. Keep a close eye on 4ID. They got robbed last dance, and they are well equipped.
These traditionally take place shortly after New Year’s and will be in place for a late winter/early spring offensive.
Timing due to a requisite ground component in anticipated attacks, see Oplan 1019 and the Arabian Gauntlet series of exercises for more information.
By the end of January, 2008, I think we will all be 80% sure whether Bush intends to disarm Iran militarily or not. We could see the exact opposite, Patriots and minesweepers and floating Marines returning home instead.
This NIE might be important, will be important in that it changes the political calculus of an attack, however, MANY similar obstacles were put up before OIF and ALL were overcome. Saddam is dead, despite all efforts, foreign and domestic, to keep him alive and in power. If the situation warrants, Bush will keep his promise to prevent Iran from going nuclear, by whatever means necessary.
He may well have already succeeded in this objective. This CANNOT be overstated.
If not, I will categorically state that Israel cannot do this job alone. IAF can barely reach Iran, using every refuelling asset they own, and even then, only with a small strike package.
When we unleashed aerial hell on Iraq in 2003, Iraq was still able to fire missiles, still able to effect command and control, still able to maneuver units at division level and above for some time afterward.
Iran’s missiles are chemically tipped.
About all Israel can do alone, is ensure that the chances of a regional WMD exchance increase geometrically. They MIGHT be able to level specific buildings at Esfahan, Arak and Parchin, they MIGHT even be able to crack the moderately hardened centrifuge hall at Natanz, but that’s it. No missile suppression, no SEAD, no attacks on Pasdaran headquarters, no submarines or minelayers sunk, Iran will retain ALL of their offensive capability after the last IAF aircraft leaves Iranian airspace.
The only way Israel makes a move is unilaterally, in which case the lid comes completely off, or else with the US ready to jump in, within minutes, and the latter CANNOT happen without the endgame maneuvers and deployments taking place shortly after the holidays as described above.
In summary, the NIE is a significant questioin mark, and until we have more facts, speculation regarding the NIE is moot.
But the NIE doesn’t even begin to answer the more pressing questions, and in regards to those questions, none of the possible scenarios, based on the best information available at this moment, have changed in the slightest.
“Wait and watch” is the best I have, for now.