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BBC: 50 years on: The Keeling Curve legacy - ( CO2 -- Global Warming?)
BBC ^ | Sunday, 2 December 2007, 20:13 GMT | Helen Briggs Science reporter, BBC News

Posted on 12/02/2007 5:53:04 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach

50 years on: The Keeling Curve legacy

By Helen Briggs


Science reporter, BBC News


Mauna Loa Curve (BBC)

It is a scientific icon, which belongs, some claim, alongside E=mc2 and the double helix.

Its name - the Keeling Curve - may be scarcely known outside scientific circles, but the jagged upward slope showing rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere has become one of the most famous graphs in science, and a potent symbol of our times.

It was 50 years ago that a young American scientist, Charles David Keeling, began tracking CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere at two of the world's last wildernesses - the South Pole and the summit of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii.

His very precise measurements produced a remarkable data set, which first sounded alarm bells over the build-up of the gas in the atmosphere, and eventually led to the tracking of greenhouse gases worldwide.

The curve set the scene for the debate over climate change, and policies, sometimes controversial, that address the human contribution to the greenhouse effect.

Without this curve, and Professor Keeling's tireless work, there is no question that our understanding and acceptance of human-induced global warming would be 10-20 years less advanced than it is today

Dr Andrew Manning, UEA

"It wasn't until Keeling came along and started measuring CO2 that we got the evidence that CO2 was increasing from human activities," says Professor Andrew Watkinson, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia (UEA), UK.

"The graph is iconic from a climate perspective."

Dr Alistair Manning of the UK Met Office agrees. "It was the first real indication that CO2 levels were rising," he says. "That therefore started scientists thinking about the impact such a change would have on the climate."

'Tireless work'

Back in the 1950s, when Keeling began his experiments, no-one knew whether the CO2 released from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil/petroleum and natural gas) would end up in the atmosphere or be fully absorbed by oceans and forests.

Charles David Keeling at the Scripps in the 1990s (SPL)
Keeling had to work hard to justify his work

"The goal behind starting the measurements was to see if it was possible to track what at that time was only a suspicion: that atmospheric CO2 levels might be increasing owing to the burning of fossil fuels," explains biogeochemist Dr Andrew Manning, also from the UEA, who worked with Professor Keeling in the 1990s.

"To do this, a location was needed very far removed from the contamination and pollution of local emissions from cities; therefore Mauna Loa, high on a volcano in the middle of the Pacific Ocean was chosen.

"Without this curve, and Professor Keeling's tireless work, there is no question that our understanding and acceptance of human-induced global warming would be 10-20 years less advanced than it is today," adds Dr Manning.

Sleepless nights

Professor Keeling discovered that carbon dioxide was rising continuously and that there were annual fluctuations in carbon in the atmosphere (the little squiggles on the line), caused by seasonal variations in plant growth and decay.

When he started his measurements in 1958, CO2 levels were around 315 ppmv (parts per million by volume - that is 315 molecules of CO2 for every one million molecules in the air); by the year 2005 they had risen to about 378 ppmv.

Yet despite the importance we place on climate change research today, Professor Keeling, known as Dave to friends and colleagues, struggled to secure funding for his monitoring efforts.

Artist's rendition of greenhouse gases (SPL)
The work focussed attention on the impact of greenhouse emissions

"Dave Keeling suffered many sleepless nights, even as late as in the 1990s, being forced again and again to justify continued funding of his programme," recalls Dr Manning.

"The fact that we are celebrating 50 years now is due purely to his incredible perseverance, courage and optimism."

He says the technical, analytical and logistical challenges of the work are enormous.

"To measure such tiny changes in the composition of the air, high on a remote mountain top in the middle of the Pacific Ocean is extremely challenging even today in the 21st Century," he explains.

"That Dave Keeling was able to successfully begin and continue such highly demanding measurements in the 1950s is a tribute to his brilliance."

Detailed monitoring

Today, carbon dioxide levels are sampled weekly at about 100 sites around the world.

Flasks filled with air are taken to a laboratory, where they are analysed for carbon dioxide, other greenhouse gases and pollutants.

Aircraft collect similar samples at higher altitude, while space-borne sensors detect some gases remotely throughout the atmosphere.

Mauna Loa (Noaa)

Monitoring efforts continue atop the Mauna Loa volcano

"Without the fifty-year carbon dioxide record, we wouldn't understand the cause of the climate change we are observing today," says James Butler, deputy director of The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) Earth System Research Laboratory.

"The carbon dioxide record has allowed us to connect the dots between increasing fossil fuel emissions and a warmer world."

Charles Keeling died in 2005, aged 77. He continued his research into carbon dioxide at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, US, until his final day.

By then he had authored nearly 100 research articles and had received the National Medal of Science - the US's highest award for lifetime achievement in scientific research.

His son, Professor Ralph Keeling, also a geochemist at Scripps, continues his work.

TIMELINE: carbon monitoring

1957: Charles David Keeling starts work monitoring CO2 at the South Pole and Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

1958: Keeling starts first direct continuous atmospheric measurements of CO2

Early 1970s: Noaa, the US federal agency, starts monitoring CO2 worldwide

1995-2003: Noaa's Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) at Boulder, Colorado, develops and maintains the world's standard references for CO2 and other greenhouse gases



TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: agw; climatechange; globalwarming
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1 posted on 12/02/2007 5:53:06 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; OKSooner; honolulugal; Killing Time; Beowulf; Mr. Peabody; RW_Whacko; ...

FReepmail me to get on or off


Click on POGW graphic for full GW rundown

New!!: Dr. John Ray's
GREENIE WATCH

Ping me if you find one I've missed.


CO2 related...
2 posted on 12/02/2007 5:56:48 PM PST by xcamel (FDT/2008)
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To: xcamel

3 posted on 12/02/2007 5:59:52 PM PST by Diogenesis (Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
"Dave Keeling suffered many sleepless nights, even as late as in the 1990s, being forced again and again to justify continued funding of his programme,"

What a slip of the tongue that was. In one sentence the writer inadvertantly put into perspective what the global warming hoax is all about..............

4 posted on 12/02/2007 6:00:15 PM PST by Hot Tabasco (Visions of sugarplums dancing in your head are probably caused by bad drugs.....)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I need more warmth,it’s 39 degrees outside,brrrr.


5 posted on 12/02/2007 6:00:31 PM PST by mdittmar (May God watch over those who serve,and have served,to keep us free)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Atmospheric CO2 levels have been two orders of magnitude higher than today's levels with no catastrophic rise of global temperatures.


6 posted on 12/02/2007 6:01:44 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Islam is a religion of peace, and Muslims reserve the right to kill anyone who says otherwise.)
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To: Hot Tabasco


7 posted on 12/02/2007 6:02:08 PM PST by Diogenesis (Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum)
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To: Diogenesis

Thanks - I love your charts. Not sure I have seen the “amount of radiation absorbed” chart. I think it was in the paper where I just read that the amount of CO2 on Venus is the same as on Earth. I thought - THAT can’t be right?! A few paragraphs later it said that some huge amount of Earth’s CO2 (98%????) is locked up in limestone rock. (Venus’s CO2 is in the atmosphere).


8 posted on 12/02/2007 6:12:31 PM PST by geopyg (Don't wish for peace, pray for Victory. ------ www.gohunter08.com ------)
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To: Diogenesis
Excellent charts!

From the article:

"It wasn't until Keeling came along and started measuring CO2 that we got the evidence that CO2 was increasing from human activities," says Professor Andrew Watkinson

I think this summarizes bad science, unless I'm missing something. Yes, they're measuring an increase in CO2, but then they make two leaps:

1) Human activities are the cause.
2) More CO2 correlates with higher global temperatures.

From your charts, I would say that both of these assumptions are on shaky ground.

9 posted on 12/02/2007 6:14:26 PM PST by ClearCase_guy (The broken wall, the burning roof and tower. And Agamemnon dead.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

What a bunch of nonsense. Human produced co’2 doesn’t even measure. (less than 1/10 of 1 percent of all atmospheric co2) Any rise in co2 levels are caused by natural earth and solar cycles which us puny humans can not and should not ever try tamper with.


10 posted on 12/02/2007 6:21:40 PM PST by Nathan Zachary
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
""To do this, a location was needed very far removed from the contamination and pollution of local emissions from cities; therefore Mauna Loa, high on a volcano in the middle of the Pacific Ocean was chosen."

Brilliant. Put a measuring station on top of a volcano that spews millions of tons of co2 into the air, then blame it on humans burning "fossil" fuels.

11 posted on 12/02/2007 6:24:19 PM PST by Nathan Zachary
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
It was 50 years ago today, that a young American scientist, Charles David Keeling,

It was fifty years ago today

when David Keeling first began to play

He's been goin' in an out of style

While exaggerating by a mile

Now let me indoctrinate poor you

with the ACT we've known for all these years

Goron's Crazy Loony Tune's Club Band

12 posted on 12/02/2007 6:26:55 PM PST by BOBTHENAILER (One by one, in small groups or in whole armies, we don't care how we do it, but we're gonna getcha)
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To: BOBTHENAILER
With respect to posts 10-11-12. There is NOTHING wrong with Keeling's measurements. They have been replicated many times over, all over the globe. They just started at Mauna Loa because it was not impacted by nearby industrial sites.

The EFFECT of the increse in CO2 is very shaky, but the fact of the increase is not. The CO2 level is, of course, very tiny as a part of all the atmosphere, going from maybe 280 parts per million to around 360-370, leaving 999,630 parts per million that are not.

Second, all of the recent historical evidence (cores, tree rings, etc) shows no changes in, say, the last 2000 years until recently (The big swings in geological time are very important for analysis, but they are much further back than that.) So, the sources of natural CO2 are very large, but have always (within last couple of millenia) balanced with the natural removal.

So, it's no good saying that man isn't causing the rise in the CO2 level in the atmosphere. It's the effect of that rise, if any, that is in serious dispute.

If you read the fine print of even the IPCC reports, they admit that, even by their arguments, there is some chance that no warming is happening, and an even greater chance that man isn't responsible for all, or even most, of it.

Some of the most prominient "skeptics", like Dr. Fred Singer, say that warming is clearly happening, but it isn't caused by man.

13 posted on 12/02/2007 6:50:02 PM PST by BohDaThone
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To: BohDaThone
>So, it’s no good saying that man isn’t causing the rise in the CO2 level in the atmosphere. It’s the effect of that rise, if any, that is in serious dispute.

Good point. The CO2 level is the one measurement that no one knowledgeable disputes.

14 posted on 12/02/2007 6:56:20 PM PST by chipengineer
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Warming Bump!


15 posted on 12/02/2007 6:57:30 PM PST by G Larry (HILLARY CARE = DYING IN LINE!)
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To: BohDaThone
With respect to posts 10-11-12.

I'm only responsible for #12. Since we're quoting posts...I like 4,6 & 7. Mine was merely a spoof, as you well know (I think) and was a play on the Beatles "Lonely Heart's Club Band".

16 posted on 12/02/2007 7:10:08 PM PST by BOBTHENAILER (One by one, in small groups or in whole armies, we don't care how we do it, but we're gonna getcha)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Nice charts on paleo-climate.
Global warming PING.


17 posted on 12/02/2007 7:27:33 PM PST by WOSG (Pro-life, pro-family, pro-freedom, pro-strong defense, pro-GWOT, pro-capitalism)
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To: Diogenesis

pinging for later


18 posted on 12/02/2007 7:54:21 PM PST by rb22982
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To: xcamel

The graph in that article takes an increase from 320 to 360 ppm and manipulates the Y-axis coordinates so that it appears to be an extremely steep rise. The question is whether an increase of 40 ppm (and future increases) does or does not represent some enormous crisis for the climate as it impacts human life. The data in that graph do not begin to answer THAT question. So there is an increase of something approaching 15% in atmospheric CO2 measured in PPM — the question is what EFFECTs if any that has on the climate environment, GOOD and BAD, for human beings. The graph cannot begin to answer the real environmental and policy questions, but the Alborons pretend that it does.

That graph is MANIPULATED to make the change appear extremely steep, when it is also quite possible (making the Y-axis coordinates go from zero to 400 or even a lot higher) to make the rising plot line look almost flat.

That graph is a piece of political propaganda, not science.


19 posted on 12/02/2007 8:08:04 PM PST by Enchante (Democrat terror-fighting motto: "BLEAT - CHEAT - RETREAT - DEFEAT - REPEAT")
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To: All

CO2 continued to rise in the last 9 years even as the tempurature went down.

http://icecape.us/images/uploads/CO2MSU.jpg

....more good stuff can always be found at junkscience.com


20 posted on 12/02/2007 8:09:33 PM PST by NDNBill (Where DID all those man-made hurricanes go??! Send out a search party.)
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