Louisiana treasurer announces Landrieu challenge (leads in recent poll)

The Hill ^ | November 29, 2007 | Ian Swanson

[Clintonfatigued]

Landrieu is in her second term in the Senate, and won reelection in 2002 with 52 percent of the vote compared to Republican Suzanne Haik Terrell’s 48 percent. Landrieu comes from a well-known political family in Louisiana — her father was the New Orleans mayor — but is considered vulnerable partly because President Bush twice carried Louisiana. In 2004, he won with 57 percent of the vote.

In addition, the state’s population has changed since Hurricane Katrina, with many black voters in New Orleans, who tended to vote for Democrats, moving out of state.

Landrieu is well-positioned financially for a tough campaign. According to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), she has more than $3.3 million in cash on hand. Kennedy, by contrast, has $37,500 in debt, according to the FEC, and asked supporters for financial help in his open letter.

“Your financial contribution today will help us lay the groundwork for next year’s campaign, which most national observers say will be one of the highest profile and competitive U.S. Senate races in the nation,” the letter said.

Kennedy’s move to the Democratic Party earlier this year was seen as a sign that he intended to take on Landrieu. In his letter to supporters, Kennedy pointed to a poll conducted by Zogby International that he said showed him leading Landrieu 45 percent to 38. The poll has a 3.2 percent margin of error.

[SomeCallMeTim]

MANY Conservatives in Louisiana have remained in the Democrat Party for FAR too long... Don’t be afraid of party switchers in this state. Pay attention to each candidates track record, and public positions...

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

This is how Landrieu beat Woody Jenkins for her first term, and how she beat Terral for her second term.

A good deal of Republican division also helped her. In 1996, the GOP vote beat out the Dem vote in the open primary, but it didn't all coalesce around Woody Jenkins, who also had to contend with Bob Dole pulling in a meager 40% of the vote in LA when he was on the ballot. In 2002, we had the same problem, GOP majority vote in open primary, but failed in the runoff. That'll be different now because Louisiana now has closed party primaries for federal elections, meaning Kennedy will be the likely nominee, and stands to benefit if Republicans carry Louisiana again, as they seem likely to.

[Non-Sequitur]

We should pick up SD too

We should, but the GOP is so worried about appearing to gang up on Tim Johnson that they won't run the kind of campaign they need to in order to win.