Feds' budget tricks hide trillions in debt

Federal deficits versus increases in the federal debt
Fiscal year	Reported surplus/deficit	Debt increase	Debt at start of year	Debt at year's end
2000	$236.2 billion surplus	$23.2 billion	$5.606 trillion	$5.629 trillion
2001	$128.2 billion surplus	$141.2 billion	$5.629 trillion	$5.770 trillion
2002	$157.8 billion deficit	$428.5 billion	$5.770 trillion	$6.198 trillion
2003	$377.6 billion deficit	$561.6 billion	$6.198 trillion	$6.760 trillion
2004	$412.7 billion deficit	$594.7 billion	$6.760 trillion	$7.355 trillion
2005	$318.3 billion deficit	$550.6 billion	$7.355 trillion	$7.905 trillion
2006	$248.2 billion deficit	$546.1 billion	$7.905 trillion	$8.451 trillion
2007	$162.8 billion deficit	$497.1 billion	$8.451 trillion	$8.949 trillion

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On a $30,000 investment over 30yrs with a $100,000 return on investment is only 3.0% on return. You would do better in stock market which on average gives you about a 8.0% return on long term investing.

If you took $30,000 and invested it in stocks at 8.0% you would have $331,000 after 30 years and if the husband put in $30,000 over 40 years they would have another $737,000 to spend in their old age. If you think all us taxpayers who have worked hard and payed our SS tax are getting a good deal from SS in our retirement years you are sadly mistaken.

NO2

The dollar has been considerably devalued. It is at an all time low on the USDX. It's value has steadily been falling since 2001. Last Wednesday it closed in the 74 range. Some economist state that the dollar is unsustainable at this level.

The dollar has been considerably devalued.
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I even recall some of my early days of business travel to the Orient, when I could get well over 300 yen for a buck. The steady decline is evident.

If GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) were used in calculating the deficit, which they are not, the defecit would never be stated in the billions of dollars, but in the trillions (as previuosly stated by the GAO).

The reported number is inaccurate and worthless.

Hey N02, I think you missed my point or I wasn't very clear. I'm not supporting the return on SS, agreed, it is horrendous. The stock market will almost always outperform the piddly return from SS. I'm merely stating the obvious, that those who believe their $30,000 contributed through payroll entitles them to $100,000's of SS and medicare benefits are getting one heck of a deal. Emphasize the $100,000's not $100,000

The federal government "fund" trick has been around for 30-40 years. Here are the funds that I remember: Social Security, Medicare; General, Transportation, Land.

Following is a list of the major funds taken from the most recent budget:

            DEBT HELD BY GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS (billions of dollars)

                                    Investment or disinvestment  Holdings
                                   -----------------------------   end of
                                     2006   % of    2007    2008     2008   % of
Description                        actual  total    est.    est.     est.  total
---------------------------------- ------  -----  ------  ------  -------  -----
Old-age and survivors trust fund..  177.0   57.2   180.2   203.6   2176.9   51.5
Civil service retirement & disabil   29.2    9.4     9.3    30.1    729.4   17.2
Hospital insurance trust fund.....   24.9    8.1    11.9     3.3    317.4    7.5
Military retirement trust fund....    4.5    1.5    27.1     7.6    216.5    5.1
Disability insurance trust fund...    8.9    2.9     4.2     5.7    212.0    5.0
Medicare-eligible retiree health..   19.9    6.4    23.5    24.1    120.3    2.8
Unemployment trust fund...........   11.4    3.7    12.8    12.0     91.0    2.2
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp....    1.1    0.3     1.8     2.9     53.9    1.3
Employees life ins & health benfts    4.1    1.3     3.0     2.4     51.4    1.2
Supplementary medical insurance...   15.9    5.1     8.8     6.3     48.2    1.1
Postal Service retiree health fund    0.0    0.0    31.4     6.9     38.2    0.9
Housing and Urban Development.....   -0.2   -0.1    -0.3     0.6     30.7    0.7
Nuclear waste disposal fund.......    1.0    0.3     0.1     0.9     19.7    0.5
Highway and Airport trust funds...    0.6    0.2     1.5    -1.8     18.6    0.4
Exchange stabilization fund.......    0.5    0.2     0.3     0.4     16.4    0.4
Foreign service retirement & disab    0.5    0.2    -0.5     0.1     13.5    0.3
Other government accounts.........   10.1    3.2   -12.8     0.6     75.9    1.8
---------------------------------- ------- -----  ------  ------  -------  -----
Total investment in Federal debt..  309.3  100.0   302.1   305.6   4230.1  100.0

Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2008,
        Analytical Perspectives, page 230, table 16-4

As can be seen, over half of the debt held by government accounts is held by Social Security. The next largest holders are the Civil Service Retirement and Disability trust fund, Medicare, and the Military Retirement trust fund.

The trick is that for years the Social Security, Transportation and land funds run large "surpluses". This amount is netted against the large deficit in the General fund.

True. The following graph shows various measures of the deficit:

The actual numbers and sources are at http://home.att.net/~rdavis2/def08.html. The purple line is the "unified deficit" and is equal to all federal receipts minus all federal outlays. This is the deficit that politicians always talk about and includes the receipts and outlays of the government accounts listed in the table above. This deficit is very nearly identical to the public deficit (the blue line) which is equal to the change in the debt held by the public. The green line shows the change in the debt help by the public PLUS the debt held by the Social Security trust fund. Finally, the red line shows the gross deficit which is the change in the gross federal debt. This debt includes the debt held by the public PLUS the debt held by government accounts, shown in the table above. This is the debt that is currently over $9 trillion.

As can be seen, the unified deficit was in surplus from 1998 through 2001. However, the gross deficit has never reached a surplus since 1969. It did come relatively close, reaching a low of $23.2 billion in 2000 but has been over a half trillion dollars per year for the past four years.

The last time the national debt decreased from year to year was the year ending 12/31/1960, Dwight Eisenhower's last year as President. Since then, the national debt has increased every year.

You can view the historical tables at treasury.gov, or just google "national debt history".