The Huckabee Surge

For Bob Vander Plaats, January 3--the day of the Iowa caucus--can't get here quickly enough. Vander Plaats, chairman of the Mike Huckabee campaign in Iowa, can read the polls, and in the latest surveys of likely Republican caucus-goers Mike Huckabee came in second, trailing Mitt Romney by only two points in the American Research Group poll and by four points in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll of the same voters. "Our goal is like that of a good basketball team," he says. "It wants to peak at tournament time. And we want to peak at caucus time."

When the former Arkansas governor announced his candidacy last winter, few political observers thought the campaign would take off. Inside the Huckabee camp, the explanation for his rise is simple. Where the "top-tier" candidates have emphasized the war on terror, says one of his staffers, Huckabee has focused on domestic issues. And he has presented himself and his views directly to voters in "retail" campaigning: "town by town, community by community, house by house," favoring the small ball of a "dinner-time conversation" over the (ostensibly) big-ball "hard-core speech" or television ad.

Vander Plaats notes that Iowa Republicans are "unsettled" about the presidential race. However much they like Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, or John McCain (who seems to have written off the state), they remain open to an alternative--a conservative to their liking (even someone more conservative than Bush, if the polls are an accurate gauge). "There was anticipation that Newt [Gingrich] might get in, and we like Newt, but he doesn't get in. With Fred Thompson, we heard that he was another Ronald Reagan. He gets in but he overpromises and underperforms." So Iowa Republicans, says Vander Plaats, have been looking more closely at the guy from Arkansas doing the heavy retail business. You can date Huckabee's ascent from August 13 when he came in a surprising second in the Ames straw poll, having said he was hoping to finish in the top five.

Even before Ames, Huckabee had a goal for the January 3 caucus: to get, as he told me in an interview in late July, "one of three tickets out of Iowa--first class, business, or coach," meaning first, second, and third place. Publicly, at least, the campaign has no illusions about catching Romney, who has spent heavily in the state and has an effective organization. "To beat him will really prove tough," says Vander Plaats. But the polls show the distance between the two candidates narrowing in recent weeks, and Huckabee's rise has meant that Romney and other Republican candidates must take him seriously.

They've begun targeting Huckabee's gubernatorial record, especi-ally his record on taxes and illegal immigration, the top issue for Iowa Republicans. Thus, Fred Thompson, for whom a top-three finish is a must if his campaign is ever to take off, has said Huckabee was "one of the [nation's] highest-taxing governors." And Romney, hoping to maintain if not lengthen his lead, has seized on a Huckabee proposal to give "special tuition breaks" to children of illegal immigrants.

In response to Thompson, Huckabee told me that the former senator just doesn't understand "how government functions at the state level, nor the uniqueness of Arkansas politics," implying that if he did, he would see the basis for Huckabee's fiscal policies, which included tax cuts and balanced budgets. As for the "special tuition breaks," Huckabee says they were college scholarships that the children of illegal immigrants had to earn by doing well academically. Huckabee's proposal (it was not enacted) also required the students to apply for citizenship. "The point was to have them become American citizens and not be a drain on the public treasury." Huckabee adds, "You don't punish a child," who may have been five years old upon being bought across the border, "for the crime of the parent."

The criticism of Huckabee will intensify in the coming weeks, and he anticipates more debate about his record and his proposals, including his call for replacing the income tax with a consumption tax. What may ensure a reasonably civil campaign is that Christmas is just nine days before the caucus. "No one can tell you what it means to campaign during Christmas," says Chip Saltsman, Huckabee's national campaign manager. Never has a caucus or primary been held this close to Christmas. "But if you go supernegative during the season, it probably won't be well received in Iowa," a state with a history of turning against negative campaigns.

What might help Huckabee leave Iowa with one of the coveted three tickets are the state's religious conservatives. Most observers think that the turnout for the GOP caucus will be down this year--Republicans are quite depressed--but that about half of the voters will be religious (defined as evangelical or Catholic) conservatives. Their key issues, according to Brad Sherman, pastor of Solid Rock Christian Church and the campaign's point man for cultivating support for Huckabee among pastors, remain abortion ("a big one," says Sherman) and gay marriage ("that's huge").

A Southern Baptist pastor in Arkansas for 12 years before he entered politics, Huckabee is pro-life and pro-marriage amendment. Thanks to these issues, he may have more appeal to religious conservatives than will Giuliani, who is not pro-life; Romney, who has only recently declared himself pro-life; or Thompson, who takes a federalism position on abortion and gay marriage (i.e., let the states decide). On a recent Fox News Sunday, Huckabee attacked Thompson's federalism approach to abortion policy: "If morality is the point here, and if it's right or wrong, not just a political question, then you can't have 50 different versions of what's right and what's wrong."

Huckabee just went up with his campaign's first television ad. It's a small buy of $60,000 and features Chuck Norris, who recently endorsed Huckabee. The ad (you can find it on YouTube) is funny to the point of being almost flippant. It takes on the question of Huckabee's conservative bona fides with Norris saluting Huckabee as "a principled, authentic conservative."

Huckabee plans to run more television ads in December. An aide says there's enough money (the campaign raised more via the web last month than it had raised from all sources in any previous month) to be on television in the right markets for about a week. Holiday advertising may limit the number of spots that any candidate can buy, which would nullify Huckabee's opponents' money advantage. "Santa Claus is our secret weapon," quips the aide.

Ultimately, the question in Iowa for all the candidates is how many supporters will turn out on the night of January 3, which could be cold and blustery, an excuse for staying home to watch the Orange Bowl. Vander Plaats says the Iowa staff is busy "identifying . . . the people who are actually going to participate and how many people they are going to take with them." He says the campaign is working with an email list of 34,000.

If Huckabee comes in second or even first, two questions for his campaign will arise, says Mike Murphy, a veteran Republican strategist who's neutral this time around. One is whether he can go beyond Iowa and succeed in states with fewer religious conservatives and thus a broader base of Republican voters. (One such state, of course, is New Hampshire, which holds its primary in early January.) The other is whether contributions will increase enough for Huckabee to buy the television ads he needs to run in several states at once. Huckabee, says Murphy, should already be advertising in all the states with early primaries.

Huckabee, although up to 12 percent in the national polls, remains a long shot for the GOP nomination. But he's run a smart campaign on a shoestring budget. He's come a long way since Ames.

Huckabee certainly is a conservative. For example, see below:

Our Conservative Choice: An Endorsement of Mike Huckabee
The Evangelical Outpost | 10/25/2007 | Joe Carter with Matthew Anderson and Justin Taylor

"Gov. Huckabee is a candidate that should appeal to fiscal conservatives. He has signed the Presidential Taxpayer Protection Pledge which binds the signer to "oppose any and all efforts to increase the marginal income tax rates for individuals and/or businesses … and oppose any net reduction or elimination of deductions and credits, unless matched dollar for dollar by further reducing tax rates"; he supports the FairTax, which would abolish the IRS and replace the Internal Revenue Code with a consumption tax; he believes in free trade (that is, fair trade) and claims that "globalization, done right, done fairly, can be the equivalent of a big pay raise by allowing us to buy things more cheaply.""

"Some of us were initially duped by the white paper on Huckabee that was released by the Club for Growth. Even though CFG is slightly outside of the mainstream on conservative fiscal policies (CFG is to fiscal conservatism what the Christian Coalition is to social conservatism), we respect the organization and appreciate their valuable work. Nevertheless, we were dismayed by their report that was at times misleading, if not outright dishonest."

"We acknowledge that the Club for Growth believes that state sales taxes should never be increased to pay for such entitlements as education, Medicare, highways, and economic development. We understand that this is the reason that they oppose Gov. Huckabee’s record. But we believe that most Americans—and most conservatives—are not minarchists. We do not think the fiscal conservative bona fides of a man who cut taxes and fees almost 100 times, saving the taxpayers almost $380 million, and left a surplus of nearly $850 million should be denigrated because he took such actions as implementing a 1/8-cent sales tax hike. Although we respect the CFC, we are dismayed at the disingenuous means that the group has used to smear the Governor’s character. "

Make sure you get all the info on the Huckster:
http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2005/06/30/News/323746.html

Huckabee promotes ‘open door’ policy at LULAC convention
Thursday, Jun 30, 2005

By Wesley Brown
Arkansas News Bureau
LITTLE ROCK - In a impassioned speech before hundreds of influential Hispanic civil rights leaders from across the nation, Gov. Mike Huckabee told a captive audience Wednesday that America is great because it has always opened it doors up to people seeking a better way of life.

“Do unto others as you would have others do unto you,” Huckabee said, citing the Golden Rule. “I have tried to govern that way and it stands to reason that I really do believe that what made this great country so great and so unique is that it has always been a place for people to run to - and not run from.

“I would hope that no matter who we are, or where we are from, that America should always be a place that opens its arms, opens it heart, opens its spirit to people who come because they want the best for their families ...,” Huckabee said as the largely Hispanic audience gave him a standing ovation.

Huckabee was the keynote speaker, along with Tyson Foods Inc. Chairman and CEO John Tyson, at a noon luncheon of the League of United Latin American Citizens, which is holding its 76th annual convention in Little Rock.

About 10,000 political, community and business leaders, along with exhibitors and speakers are in Little Rock attending the convention at the Statehouse Convention Center. The convention started Monday and runs through Saturday.

Although he never actually talked about the U.S. or Arkansas immigration policy, Huckabee made it very clear where he stood on the issue. In his opening remarks, he said the nation will need to address the concerns of the Hispanic community because of its growing influence and population base.

“Pretty soon, Southern white guys like me may be in the minority,” Huckabee said jokingly as the crowd roared in laughter.

He told the LULAC delegates that their presence in the state’s capital city was very important because Arkansas has one of the fastest growing Hispanic populations in the nation.

“Your gathering is so very significant for our state,” Huckabee said. “We are delighted to have you.”

Despite several light moments, Huckabee did not stray away from several controversial issues that made him a target of criticism during the recently ended 85th General Assembly. He said Arkansas needs to make the transition from a traditional Southern state to one that recognizes and cherishes diversity “in culture, in language and in population.”

“This is an issue that is going to require extraordinary efforts on both sides of the border, particularly those coming from Mexico,” Huckabee said of verifying the status of illegal aliens. “But I am confident that our government will recognize that we should accommodate people who wish to provide the best opportunities for their families (and) employers so that we can make sure our economy has the necessary work force.”

During the legislation session, Huckabee criticized an immigration bill by Republican senators Jim Holt of Springdale and Denny Altes of Fort Smith as un-Christian, un-American, irresponsible and anti-life.

Senate Bill 206, which died in the Senate, would have required proof of citizenship to register to vote and also force state agencies to report suspected cases of people living in the country illegally. Holt, R-Springdale, replied later to Huckabee’s comments that Christian charity does not include turning a blind eye to lawbreaking.

The Republican governor, who many believe will run for president in 2008, also backed legislation that would have opened the door for illegal immigrants in Arkansas to receive college scholarships.

House Bill 1525 by Rep. Joyce Elliott, D-Little Rock, was approved by the House but eventually failed in the Senate. Huckabee reiterated Wednesday that he believes every child, regardless of their parent’s immigration status, should have an opportunity to receive an education in the U.S.

“I ... believe that an education for every child is the most important single factor to give everyone to be their very best,” he said.

In one humorous moment, Huckabee sounded very much like a presidential candidate when he recalled his educational upbringing in Hope and reminded the crowd that another famous Arkansas governor and former president grew up in the small southwest Arkansas town.

“I too still believe in a place call Hope,” Huckabee said, mimicking former President Clinton’s famous acceptance speech at the 1992 Democratic National Convention.

Before Huckabee spoke, John Tyson thanked the Hispanic community for standing by the Springdale-based food giant during the federal government’s investigation of the company a few years ago. The U.S. Justice Department investigation alleged that Tyson helped to smuggle illegal aliens into the U.S. and employed them at various chicken-processing plants across the Southeast.

After a seven-week trial, Tyson and several managers of poultry processing plants were acquitted in March 2003 of those charges.

“At the time, it was a very difficult and very tough time for our company,” Tyson said. “Thank you LULAC for standing by us.”

Tyson also credited LULAC leaders for pushing the company to add Hispanics to the Tyson board and promote more Latinos to upper management and executive positions.

He also said in that last 15 years, the number of Hispanics that work for the Arkansas company has increased significantly.

“I am proud to tell you that more than 40,000 of our workers are Latinos,” Tyson said of the company’s 114,000 employees. “We are learning, growing and benefiting from that diversity.”

JackRyanCIA, how do you account for the warm reception previously given to Huckabee by FR, (see below):

(the following is quoted by dano1 from a posting by BillyBoy in an earlier FreeRepublic thread titled "Huckabee: I've Got The "Right" Experience") | November 2, 2007 | BillyBoy

Some nice irony there. The same cocky people who were on this forum a few months ago smirking about how anyone who questioned FDT's status as Ronald Reagan Reincarnated must "fear the Fred" now appear to be genuinely TERRIFIED of the Huckster.

His rise in the polls goes against their shared vision with the MSM that the "only" viable candidates are Fred, Rudy, and Mitt. How dare we the people choose the candidate instead of them dictating the choices! You have to wonder why they're so alarmed at Huckabee if he "can't win" the nomination. You don't see me sounding the alarms at the prospect of a John Cox Presidency.

Hence, all the nasty hit pieces on FR in the last couple of days. They'd have believe the Huckster holds "liberal" views on everything but "abortion and guns" (yeah, I can just see liberals working their butt off to ban gay marriage, win in Iraq, abolish the IRS, etc.) and that Huckabee was a horrible Clintonite RINO governor. A quick search engine check on FR will show Huckabee was ENORMOUSLY popular with freepers back when he was actually IN office, supposedly doing all these evil "liberal, nanny-state, tax-hike" things. (I guess standing up to the teachers unions and cutting taxes by $380 million are now "liberal" policies)

They'd have us believe Huckabee "destroyed" the GOP in Arkansas -- nevermind the fact Arkansas has always been a one-party RAT state since reconstruction and the Huckster is one of only three GOP governors elected since then. Saying he "destroyed" the GOP in Arkansas is like saying Bush caused the unicorn population in the U.S. to go extinct. You can't destroy something that didn't exist in the first place (perhaps they are confusing the Huckster with an actual RINO like George Ryan, who single-handedly wiped out the ILGOP after the state had spent DECADES as a healthy two-party competitive state)

Besides, if Huckabee is such an awful RINO, why don't they tell us how THEIR guy is soooooo much "better" on key conservative issues like abortion, border security, taxes, and the war on terror. Go ahead, I'm all ears.

Back in 2005, Huckabee was called "the freeper governor" and hailed as a conservative hero on this forum for mocking the liberals "tax the rich" policies by naming the "tax me more" in Arkansas. Huckabee was personally invited TWICE by the owner of this very forum to serve as our special guest of honor at the presidential inauguration, and received an outpouring of allocades and standing ovations from freepers. Imagine how members would have reacted if a real "RINO governor" showed up at our event like Christie Todd Whitman or Arnold Schwarzenegger , let alone the outrage from the rank and file members of this forum if the owner of the website personally invited them as the keynote "attraction".

The freepers trashing Huckabee as an evil RINO are trying to rewrite history worse than Michael Moore's fictional film about the NRA.

Here's the REAL Huckabee's "record" in office:

Governor Mike Huckabee (left) and the Capitol Offense Band, hosts of the The FreeRepublic.com Inaugural Ball, a rousing success for 61 million Americans in 2005.

Arkansas - Freeper Governor Mike Huckabee reelected

Freeper Governor Huckabee (R-Arkansas) wins Arkansas Republican primary 85%+

Freeper Governor Huckabee's "Tax Me More Fund" tops $1,000 with $200 donation

Gov. Huckabee's thank you letter to Free Republic

Huckabee opposes any form of amnesty. See below:

Immigration Facts

The Governor opposes and will never allow amnesty.
Governor Huckabee believes that securing our borders must be our top priority and has reached the level of a national emergency.
The Governor supports the $3 billion the Senate has voted for border security. This money will train and deploy 23,000 more agents, add four drone planes, build 700 miles of fence and 300 miles of vehicle barriers, and put up 105 radar and camera towers.
In this age of terror, illegal immigration is not only an economic issue, but also a national security issue.
Governor Huckabee opposed the amnesty bill that was attempted to be rushed through Congress this summer, and opposed the misnamed DREAM Act, which would have put us on the slippery slope to amnesty for all.
Governor Huckabee opposes and will not tolerate sanctuaries for illegals.
Governor Huckabee opposes giving driver's licenses to those who are illegally in our country and supports legislation to prevent states from doing so.
Governor Huckabee believes illegal aliens who try to vote or try to apply for welfare benefits should be arrested.
Governor Huckabee will stop punishing cities which try to enforce our laws and protect the economic well-being, physical safety, and quality of life of our citizens.
Governor Huckabee opposes and will not tolerate employers who hire illegals. They must be punished with fines and penalties so large that they will see it is not worth the risk or profitable.
Governor Huckabee opposes the economic integration of North America that would create open borders among the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
Governor Huckabee will never yield one inch of American sovereignty.
Governor Huckabee will take our country back for those who belong here. No open borders, no amnesty, no sanctuary, no false Social Security numbers, no driver's licenses for illegals.

It has been reported that Mike Huckabee supported benefits for illegals immigrants while he was Governor of Arkansas.

Governor Huckabee never supported benefits for illegal immigrants. In Arkansas, illegal immigrants do not receive welfare benefits or food stamps. Governor Huckabee has always, and will always be supportive of the laws and regulations of the country.

It has also been said that Mike Huckabee was in favor of providing college scholarships for illegal immigrants while he was Governor.

The governor only supported the measure that applied to those who met the academic qualifications and applied for legal citizenship. The measure didn't pass. Governor Huckabee stressed that any student would simply be treated as any other graduate of an Arkansas High School, and not given any special consideration.

Critics say that Governor Huckabee's motives behind opening a Mexican consulate office in Little Rock was to court illegals to come work in Arkansas.

The Mexican consulate provided Arkansas businesses with access to Mexico and opportunities to expand their markets, and would help further ensure that immigrants from Mexico are legal and better able to secure legal documentation. At the same time, the office would open up opportunities for Mexican investors to invest money with Arkansas partners, which would help create more jobs in the state.

Source: Truth Squad: Immigration Facts, Huckabee website, November 02, 2007

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