Posted on 11/21/2007 12:30:50 PM PST by greyfoxx39
This morning, in the wake of the resurgence of Mormon-gate as a story, I've been doing some digging around. While I had hoped to write something on where we stand now, and what we know, including the results of my digging this morning, at an actual publication (as opposed to my own blog), with a few hours to go before everyone switches off for Thanksgiving, I'm bailing on that idea.
So, here goes.
1. As I read through the latest this morning, one point sprung out at me. It was the same point that sprung out at me when I found out last week that an Iowa State Rep. who had endorsed Romney was called. And that was, whoever commissioned this survey wanted Romney team members called. I say that without inclusion of the words "evidently" or "apparently" because it seemed to me that including people on Romney's payroll or publicly affiliated with the campaign in a call sample would be bad, and non-standard, practice. Including more than one such person (and thus far, we know of three included in the call sample) to me evidenced something beyond negligence.
2. Turns out my assumption, that it would be totally non-standard practice, to include those on payroll, at the very least, in a call sample is correct. In speaking to a top Republican pollster this morning, I have been told that normally, people working for or associated with campaigns, and members of the media, are excluded from calling lists in the first place-- presumably because of bias that might be evident, which could raise questions about the accuracy of the result. There are two points relevant to this situation to glean from this. First, it is definitely not standard to call people receiving money from a campaign-- as was done here. Second, pollsters determine who is called, not the firm conducting the calls.
3. This is consistent with other information I've obtained today. This morning, I spoke to Jeffrey Welch of Western Wats. We talked about the responsibility that Western Wats takes in relation to polling. Jeffrey underlined to me that Western Wats does not advise on, nor determine, who gets called as part of a given survey. They also do not advise on, nor determine, what questions are asked as part of a survey. Responsibility both for determining a call sample and survey questions rests with the consultant who instructs Western Wats. In other words, whoever instructs Western Wats designs a survey; Western Wats simply executes it. (Jeffrey also reiterated that Western Wats does not engage in push polling.)
So, a top pollster and the firm alleged to have made the calls in question both agree: consultants determine the questions and the call sample, calling firms solely execute the project.
Why is this relevant? Well, it indicates very, very strongly that whoever orchestrated the calls wanted these particular respondents-- who could be counted on to run to the media complaining about the calls-- contacted. Certainly, it was not up to Western Wats (allegedly) to determine who was called, so it wasn't an accident, mistake, oversight , or even deliberate action (perhaps to aid a candidate that some at the firm seem to strongly back) on their part that led to these people being called.
Of course, this still doesn't move us that much closer to determining who commissioned the calls-- but we do at least know now, with a very high degree of certainty, that the party that pushed them wanted people who would rush to the media, and had pre-existing biases included.
That again raises the question of who would benefit, not just from calls like this being made, but from them hitting the headlines so fast and so furiously. I revert to my position that the calls (and especially the publicity) in no way benefit McCain. They do not benefit Rudy (he wasn't even mentioned in the calls, and the only very early primary state he might beat Romney in is New Hampshire, where there's not much of an evangelical community to get stressed about the Mormon factor). They do not benefit Thompson. Again, he wasn't mentioned in the calls, and frankly, a look at early state polling data suggests that he's in no position to catch much of anyone, let alone Romney, let alone by orchestrating this kind of thing. The calls might benefit Huckabee, but in Iowa only, and calls were also made in New Hampshire and South Carolina-- suggesting, at least, that the number of calls would have been sufficient to be expensive enough that the Huckabee campaign wouldn't be able to afford it (meanwhile, I'm guessing that only handful of Huck supporters could, most if not all of whom would probably not be able to engineer something like this on their own).
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Romney does benefit from this, or at least members of his team seem to think so. In the words of one of them, "when people attack his religion he becomes an underdog, and people like underdogs." Moreover, we already know that at least one non-Romney-affiliated respondent developed significant sympathy for Romney as a result of the call.
Again, I'll underline that nothing, up to this point, conclusively shows that anyone associated with the Romney camp, let alone that the campaign itself (including the candidate) engineered the making of these calls. But, the more digging into this story occurs, the more it looks likely that someone affiliated with Romney in some form (rogue consultant, supporter or donor) may be responsible.
Through this small tear in the curtain, we can see the Romney Sleaze Machine in action.
The plot thickens.
Watch for the Romney campaign to admit to something, just as we are all about to dine on turkey, hoping that it will not be noticed.
Update:
Blogger in contact with Western Wats resigns from Romney campaign
November 21, 2007 – 2:52 pm
Justin Hart has notified me that he has resigned from his position as a Vice Chair of the Romney campaign’s Faith and Values Steering Committee after I challenged him for not disclosing that he was an official in the Romney campaign.
Justin had been, until today, the only person who Western Wats would speak with. This afternoon Liz Mair wrote about a discussion she had with Jeffery Welch, a senior Western Wats executive and Romney donor.
He appears to have resigned soon after contacting the Romney Iowa staffers who the Romney campaign has now admitted to misrepresenting to the press.
Shades of Bill Clinton!
Further update.
The Great Conservsative Executive Leader and his “company” in action....
WOW. Do you have a link for that? If so, sounds like that might merit its own thread.
This blogger is for McCain but he sees Romney’s campaign for what it is. Sleazy.
As I mentioned in the other thread, Justin Hart used to post here at FR under the handle RightSideRedux.
Wonder if there has been a recall for updating to the “make me a Conservative” talking points
So it was a Romney supporter behind those calls? Just want to make sure I’m not misunderstanding the situation.
The plot is thicker, but not necessarily clearer. Creating a politcal mailer that appears to be mass produced, and mailing it to the homes of a couple of dozen political operatives on the other side, adressed to "Occupant" so that it appears to be part of a mass mailing that went to everybody in town, is an old trick. For less than $10 you can get the enemy camp in an uproar, and have them running in circles publically denying charges that haven't been publically leveled.
This could just be an update of that tactic. Or it could be Romney people trying to frame the opposition for a dirty trick they pulled themselves.
The implication is that it was a Romney supporter or the Romney campaign itself. Although I’m sure the campaign wants to avoid fingerprints.... get someone else to do their dirty work...
“This could just be an update of that tactic. Or it could be Romney people trying to frame the opposition for a dirty trick they pulled themselves.” OR, it could have been the advance strategy to set the gullible voters up for the Romney ‘My religion is not the issue so drop it or be a bigot’ speech. We’ve seen how his campaign does advance work here at FR. Don’t put anyhting past this sleazy politician and his sleazy operatives. Just remind yourself that he pretended to pretend to be pro-choice to get Massatwosh!ts voters to back him, but claims he was only doing it to get elected in a liberal state. He will manipulate the masses anyway he sees fit and we’re supposed to shut up and take it like we did when the sleazy sinkEmperor did it. Romney is clinton with a nicer family.
Damn. Trying to garner some sympathy for himself, huh? Geeze. Not even the Clintoon would stoop this low.
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