Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[claudiustg]

Maybe you can get all those folks that won’t vote for Fred banned from the polls too. At least it’s some sort of plan. Or maybe if only Fred were on the ballot!

[stephenjohnbanker]

“Mitt is well qualified, energetic, intelligent, well organized, and has a great platform”

Mitt has no history as a conservative, period.

[ejonesie22]

Nah, it’d kill the fun.

We are the big target, so it is expected.

[stephenjohnbanker]

I ask a question, and I am a troll? You are sick!

[Rb ver. 2.0]

“let the campaigners make their cases and avoid media-driven months-in-advance knee-jerk politics.”

The most rational comment on the entire thread.

[stephenjohnbanker]

“Dumbest, most asinine statement of the year to a seasoned FReeper.

SJB asked a question. He has received no response. Obviously you can’t, or won’t respond; so you accuse him of trolling?”

I agree.....that was the dumbest post of the year. As a matter of fact, Romney is a very accomplished man. I just don’t want him as POTUS.

[eyedigress]

Debate is good. DJ is very forward, sometimes not nice. I agree with his assesment of Candidate because if we elect a liberal to the GOP, the Conservative party is over.

[GOP_Lady]

stephenjohnbanker is a good guy. :-)

[claudiustg]

To make it interesting:

Pick One Candidate

1. Fred Thompson

2. F. Thompson

3. Just plain Fred

[GOP_Lady]

LOL. #3

[Spiff]

Posted by fieldmarshaldj to Spiff; Admin Moderator; Jim Robinson
On News/Activism 11/20/2007 9:50:15 PM PST · 65 of 84

Are we going to keep tolerating these vicious hate-Fred threads from trolls trying to foist liberal RINOs like Rudy McRombee down our throats ? We have enough of this crap from the liberal media and RINO establishment. This is a Conservative website.

Since when are you the final judge on who is and who is not a conservative? Mitt Romney is a conservative Republican no matter how hard you want to pretend that he isn't. This thread is not about "hating" Fred Thompson. This thread is about how his campaign is failing. The author of this article isn't the first who brought it up today. It was a topic of discussion on Special Report with Brit Hume. Brit Hume looked at how Fred's been doing, how he is doing now, and said that the campaign is basically dead. This article reinforces that point with actual evidence (something that you routinely lack.)

If I were you I'd be less concerned with getting your feelings hurt on Free Republic and more concerned with getting out there and seeing what you can actually do to give your candidate the shot in the arm that he needs to actually make it to Super Tuesday.

[eyedigress]

ALL THE ABOVE )D. :^)

[GOP_Lady]

LOL.

[Owen]

Romney is the best qualified person to be President, in either party. Ideology is not the first parameter to measure in deciding that question.

If ideology trumps everything for some folks, then they can’t vote for anyone but Jesus Christ and since he’s not running, they will be staying home each election day.

Romney has a Harvard MBA and a Harvard law degree. That is not an easy thing to do.

He has remained married to the same woman for decades. That is not an easy thing to do.

He was Governor of a state. This is never an easy job, for anyone or any state.

He built a fortune measured in 100’s of millions of dollars. Far less than 1% of the US population can do or have done that.

He ran a profitable and smooth Winter Olympics in 2002, despite the sudden requirement of enormous security additions just a few months after 9/11.

There is no one else running that comes close to these credentials.

[ejonesie22]

Spiff’s just upset that after weeks of selling the New and Improved “Conservative” Mitt Romney only 13.4% of the members of one of the leading Conservative forums bought product...

It was a lot of work, but no sale...

[fieldmarshaldj]

Spiff is one of the lead Mittwitt trolls, and one of the nastiest people on this website.

[yellowhammer]

Fred Thompson = 0

[eyedigress]

:^) Not my argument tonite.

[Spiff]

I ask a question, and I am a troll? You are sick! Yes, but you just proved that your question was pure troll bait in Post #82. You're just waiting for someone to make a statement of why they support Mitt Romney so that you can try to bat it down with a "No he's not!" statement like you just made. I knew your game. So do the other Romney supporters. You're just P.O'd because there are so few who will take the bait.

[americanophile]

Fred was D.O.A.