Posted on 11/20/2007 8:47:19 PM PST by Spiff
Actually Spiff, I think the members of Free Republic are pretty good barometers of what a real conservative looks like.
***Good to know that. Right now we see FR pretty evenly split over Fred & Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll?poll=202;results=1
So, when I point out that Hunter had the lead at FR before Fred showed up and that it is evidence that Hunter would have gotten momentum in the conservative corner such as what I posted on the “smart money” thread, do you accept it?
With Hunter starting to emerge from Fred’s shadow over at Intrade and the fact that Fred never locked down conservative support (as shown by FR poll evidence), the signs are starting to be more readable.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
LOL
We’ve already been through this, Petronski.
50% of Republicans would not vote for Fred Thompson? (today’s CNN/WMUR New Hampshire poll)
CNN/WMUR ^ | Nov. 19, 2007 | Staff
Posted on 11/19/2007 4:30:05 PM PST by jdm
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1928126/posts?page=241#241
Petronski: (LOL)
Kevmo: OK, then let me ask you a question.
If Hunter passes Thompson at Intrade, should Thompson supporters switch their support at that time? We needed to ask similar questions when Thompson was in the lead at Intrade and suggest that if he were to drop by more than 25 points, would they switch their support? No one did ask the question, but if they had, we would have gotten to hold those Freepers to their word. So now I’m asking what in your mind is probably something out of the realm of possibility. If Hunter passes Thompson at Intrade, should Thompson supporters switch their support ? If you’re a Thompson supporter, will you give your support at that time? I’m just trying to bump Hunter up to 4 or 5% at Intrade, since he is at 4% in the polls. Thompson is at ~6%. So in your mind this is probably not possible but in the Hunter followers’ minds it is quite possible. It’s a yes or no question. Please, no hemming and hawing, no nonsense about how it’s such an impossible event that it’s not worth bothering over. Losing 29 points at Intrade was considered an impossible event when he had the lead, so please don’t pretend that one is possible and the other isn’t.
Petronski: If Hunter passes Thompson at Intrade, should Thompson supporters switch their support at that time?
No. I wouldn’t switch if Hunter passed Thompson in actual polls.
Kevmo: If Hunter passes Thompson at Intrade, should Thompson supporters switch their support at that time?
Petronski: No. I wouldn’t switch if Hunter passed Thompson in actual polls.
Kevmo: Thanks for responding. I don’t agree with you on Thompson as the better man nor the better candidate but if you stick by him, that’s admirable. That’s what Team Fred has run into is the die hard Hunter fans. As far as this particular FR poll is concerned, it probably means that the support is about even for each guy and that we as a group are split. Having the social conservative base split going into the primaries does not strike me as healthy for the republican party.
Hunter is not “starting to emerge from Fred’s shadow at Intrade.”
Intrade:
Freddie = 5.4
Duncan = .1
The northeast elite always thought everyone else is just like them. Or should be.
IMO the ONLY way Hillary wins is the GOP nominates Guiliani. Mitt would be only slightly better.
Snapshot for today.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts?page=329#329
Kevmo: $100 would get you $50,000. If you win you gotta buy me a dinner.
LL: You gotta deal, Kevmo. 500 to 1 is an absolute steal.
***Here’s an update.
The Field was actually at 1000 to 1, but it is moving at pretty high volume, it looks like it could be hard to get it at 0.1 so it will probably be a 500 to 1 bet.
2008.PRES.FIELD
Field (any other candidate) to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.1 0.2 0.1 5482 0
Hunter’s contracts have started to move. It would be hard to get them at 0.1 but it’s still happening. Ask Price is 0.2.
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.1 28869 0
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On Hunter’s contracts, there is a mystery about someone shorting them without expected gain, which is a maneuver I don’t know how to explain.
GAW838 wondered “who’s shorting these contracts at .1 and .2, what do they expect to gain. Unless that are MMs that pay no fees, they have already lost their entire max gain if they are price-taking, then they have to get out at some point or pay expiry.” Response: There are arb [arbitration] trades in many of the markets that only make sense if someone is trading commission free.
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Thompson continues his downward slide for the nomination, with the RTL endorsement greeted with a yawn. He’s below McCain, Ron Paul, and Huckabee.
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 5.3 5.9 5.7 93128 0
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Betting on the whole shebang for Thompson to win the presidency has actually gone down in price from 2.5 to 2.0 on high volume, reflecting a change in payout from 40-to-1 to 50-to-1. That looks to me like where much of this issue is being played out on Intrade for now.
2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 1.7 2.0 2.0 17172
Hillary will win if they nominate Giuliani. I’ll not vote for him.
Under no definition of the term can you call 54 to 1 “starting to emerge from his shadow.”
That's a positive for Romney, IMO, it clears up some questions. Thanks for posting it.
Under no definition of the term can you call 54 to 1 “starting to emerge from his shadow.”
***That’s because you aren’t looking at the CHANGE IN THE DATA. What was once 350-to-1 has become 60-to-1, then 54-to-1 and with Hunter’s ASK price doubling it is heading to less than 30-to-1. In the meantime, for the long haul contract Fred.President, in the last few days it went from 2.5 to 2.0, and the ASK price for 2008.PRES.FIELD has doubled to 0.2. Using your metrics that’s going from 25-to-1 down to 20-to-2 (or 10-to-1) in just a few short days since I posted my analysis suggesting that Hunter’s contracts were undervalued.
There has been a fundamental change in confidence at Intrade.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
If the contracts are ever Fred=.09 and Hunter=.08, Hunter will STILL be in Fred’s shadow, and will not have started to emerge from it.
Welcome back Pissant,
Shortly I’ll be taking you out of my tagline since you are back and all.
If the contracts are ever Fred=.09 and Hunter=.08, Hunter will STILL be in Fred’s shadow, and will not have started to emerge from it.
***If Hunter passes Fred on Intrade, you said already that you would not support him. But many other freepers would support him at that time. There are definite signs of a shift in confidence. What kind of candidate loses 30 points on Intrade before the primaries? A losing one.
What kind of candidate never has 30 Intrade points to lose?
What kind of candidate never has 3 Intrade points to lose?
What kind of candidate never even has .3 Intrade points to lose?
Hunter Duncan.
So ya pay your money and ya takes yer choice. The market is speaking.
Thanks for bumping the thread.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
I’m sorry, I wish I could give you a definitive link to an article. His position on the subject is something I’ve gleaned from reading several articles over the past few years.
Look at the title of this thread and who posted it and you get back to me on that.
"They just have different priorities than you happen to have. Winning being one of them."
Winning with a loser ? Yup, that's definitely a different priority than I have. I like authentic wins with winners and not pyrhhic victories that mean nothing.
OK.
"Tonight your vitriol is over the top."
Responding appropriately to Fred haters and trolls is over the top ?
"I have been on this website as long as you have, so according to your "judge" criteria, I have as much right to speak as you do. YOU ARE RUDE. You are not helping your candidate at all."
I make no apologies for exposing the agenda of RINOs and their agents on this board. I'm sorry you disagree. This isn't a Sunday afternoon tea party. This is a battle for the future of our party and this country.
"I don't know if you "hit the bottle" in the middle of the night,"
I don't drink, sir.
"or if you have just hit your boiling point, but if you want others to actually listen and be persuaded by your opinions tone it down. If instead, this is just your preferred posting style I won't bother to respond anymore, because frankly, you are just not worth it."
That sounds rude.
I don’t know what Rudy’s positions on taxation are, but being a liberal Republican, it’s unlikely he is particularly “Conservative” on the subject. A Mayor doesn’t necessarily deal with setting tax rates on par with what a Governor would (since state would supercede anything the city does and he has no control over that). Rudy has a definitive position on abortion, and he’s unapologetically pro-abortion, and worse than that, he refused to even condemn partial-birth abortion as a condition for getting the NY Conservative party’s nomination for Senator (something which the man for whose seat he was running for, the liberal Pat Moynihan, condemned as “infanticide”). One of many reasons I simply can’t support him.
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