Under no definition of the term can you call 54 to 1 “starting to emerge from his shadow.”
***That’s because you aren’t looking at the CHANGE IN THE DATA. What was once 350-to-1 has become 60-to-1, then 54-to-1 and with Hunter’s ASK price doubling it is heading to less than 30-to-1. In the meantime, for the long haul contract Fred.President, in the last few days it went from 2.5 to 2.0, and the ASK price for 2008.PRES.FIELD has doubled to 0.2. Using your metrics that’s going from 25-to-1 down to 20-to-2 (or 10-to-1) in just a few short days since I posted my analysis suggesting that Hunter’s contracts were undervalued.
There has been a fundamental change in confidence at Intrade.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
If the contracts are ever Fred=.09 and Hunter=.08, Hunter will STILL be in Fred’s shadow, and will not have started to emerge from it.