Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[LexBaird]

Actually Spiff, I think the members of Free Republic are pretty good barometers of what a real conservative looks like. I have asked you this a couple of times and you won’t answer, so I go again.

What is more likely, that 86% of Free Republic are idiots because we don’t see Mitt Romney as a conservative or that you are wrong/biased/whatever?

The members of FR may well be a good indicator, but self-selecting internet polls are not, even if they are on FR. Any random 'net poll that has been spammed by Paul supporters shows why.

Members choose to participate or not on a variety of reasons. By the way the polls here on FR have been worded lately, they are little different from "push polls" and are not really indicative of FR as a whole. They are indicative of who the management supports, and members hold contrary views at their own peril. The frequent call to ban anyone who doesn't support Fred on this very thread show why.

[fabian]

well, isn’t it true that Rudy cut the growth of spending in New York along the same lines as Reagan did nationally? That is no small feat and is very conservative. And he did promote adoption. I believe he is not for abortion at all but is simply weak on it and not willing to fight the women vote on that. His guilt about that will cause him to promote life in anyway he can, including nominations to the supremes. I think you are sort of throwing the baby out with the bath water on Rudy...although I do aggree that Thompson is better, I will hope for much good and a victory if Rudy gets the nomination. I will be going for Thompson in the primaries.

[ejonesie22]

Actually polls at a forum like Free Republic are good indicators because of how focused they are. The only numbers I reference are the member votes. Given this is a Conservative forum they are uniquely qualified as ‘average’ citizens to judge conservtive ideas and motives.

As far as fear and such, no one has been banned unless they were obnoxious in the extreme or are trolls, and that included the massive Rudy “purge’. Proof in the putting, there are still Rudy supporters in these very forums.

So that is a weak argument against the validity of the poll last week.

[NYC Republican]

Pissant- you’re back! A short time-out? Welcome back

[Reagan Man]

>>>>>well, isn’t it true that Rudy cut the growth of spending in New York

Spending went up 35.6% under Mayor Giulaini and adoptions dropped off five of his final six years in office. LINK Also, NYC remained the highest taxed big city in America and the abortion capitol of the nation.

Rooty was an authoritarian and opportunist, not to mention an abortionist pig. Any conservative who is thinking about voting for him, needs to have their head examined.

[CatQuilt]

Romney sandbagged a viable successor to him in 2002

Yes! Thank you for pointing this out.

[CatQuilt]

I frankly don’t care that Romney is a liberal RINO and not a conservative. He’s running for president of the USA, not the ACU.

You're joking right? As Roger Hedgecock would say, YIKES!

[Kevmo]

I was just reacting to what the majority of Freepers think of Romney. This is clearly Fred/Hunter country. Even if I think Romney is a conservative, or my kind of conservative, it is irrelevant. So when I say Romney is not a conservative, I mean he is not a conservative to Freepers. When in Rome.
***Sounds a little bit thin. Before you go off trying to blend in with the Romans you should probably observe them for a while. Just because Romans might be attending the latest craze of child sacrifice or something like that doesn’t mean it’s the right thing for you.

[LexBaird]

Actually polls at a forum like Free Republic are good indicators because of how focused they are. The only numbers I reference are the member votes.

That only reflects the members who participate in the poll. It is self-selecting, therefore statistically worthless. It's like the text message voting for American Idol: it doesn't reflect the viewership's choice, it reflects the choice of those motivated to vote. The wording of the questions do not motivate anyone who disagrees with the premise to vote, and the more "focused" they are, the more meaningless is the result. The "focus" merely guides the desired result.

As far as fear and such, no one has been banned unless they were obnoxious in the extreme or are trolls, and that included the massive Rudy “purge’. Proof in the putting, there are still Rudy supporters in these very forums.

The problem as I see it, is that vile, obnoxious trolls seemingly ARE tolerated, so long as they are vile, obnoxious trolls for Fred. There are lots and lots of posts here by Fredheads that would get anyone banned if the names of candidates were switched. I can think of several jerks for Mitt, Rudy or even Hunter that are gone or had long timeouts. Most for good cause. But the jerks for Fred live on, even though their rhetoric and tactics are identical: spamming cut-n-paste epics from other sites, pinging hit posses, derogatory personal attacks on other posters, attacks on candidate's families, baiting for flames, cross-thread stalking, etc.

[tumblindice]

`I won’t hold my opponent’s youth and inexperience against him.’ RR

[restornu]

Your post has inspired me to post a thread just for you and and your friends!

[RockinRight]

So apparently none of these matter:

http://www.fred08.com/FredCast/FredCastSummary.aspx

[OB1kNOb]

he also has a serious medical condition.

What's Fred's serious medical condition?

[Rick_Michael]

Have you realized many of them don’t care (about a history of conservatism)?

[stephenjohnbanker]

“Anyways, the success of conservatism in America isn’t going to depend on who the President is, on any one man. Conservatism depends on each individual. We are individualists, not collectivists.”

You don’t think having an open borders President for 8 years
makes a difference?

[stephenjohnbanker]

“Have you realized many of them don’t care (about a history of conservatism)?”

Without a history, you can’t believe any of them!

[Kevmo]

What’s Fred’s serious medical condition?
***He announced before he ran that he has cancer. If it flares up again, he drops out.

The man is campaigning like someone with an excuse at the ready, like a golfing buddy who wraps a bandage around his finger before he plays with you. If he wins, it was in spite of his injury. If he loses, it was because of it.

.

.

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo

[OB1kNOb]

I guess I had fogotten he spoke about that. thanks.

[xzins]

Just exactly what is lackadaisical about Thompson’s campaign.

Please cite someplace he should have been where he has not been.

One must show something POSSIBLE to have been achieved that was NOT achieved due to apathy or laziness.

It seems to me that this coverage of Fred is part of an orchestrated attack by the media, to include FoxNews which shamelessly pursued it last night on Brit Hume’s show.

Every network is pro-Giuliani. They DESPERATELY want a liberal versus liberal showdown. Fox News right now is an extension of the Giuliani campaign.