Giuliani Leads, Four More at or Above 10% in GOP Contest (Certain Voters: Rudy: 25%; Fred 21%)

Gallup ^ | 11/16/2007

[Brices Crossroads]

The Nov. 11-14 Gallup Poll finds 28% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide naming Giuliani as their first choice for the party’s 2008 presidential nomination. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is second, at 19%. Thompson appears, for the moment, to have halted some negative momentum, as his numbers had fallen slightly in each of the three prior polls. Thompson received a key endorsement from the National Right to Life Committee this week, although it is unclear whether that would have boosted his support.

Arizona Sen. John McCain (13%), former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (12%), and Huckabee (10%) are closely matched for third place. Texas Rep. Ron Paul places sixth with 5% support. [Snip] Among the roughly 6 in 10 Republicans in the current poll who say they are extremely likely to vote in their state’s 2008 presidential primary or caucus, Giuliani (25%) and Thompson (21%) are essentially tied. McCain (13%), Romney (12%), and Huckabee (12%) tie for third among this group.

[Brices Crossroads]

“Gomer and Goober on the same ticket.”

LOL
Would someone please post a picture (the real ones and our very own GOP politicians who bear that moniker)?

[2ndDivisionVet]

There was a story about it several weeks ago:
In switch, NRA eyeing role in GOP primaries (Might endorse Fred!)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1901746/posts

I hope it is soon, before the first caucus or primary, for maximum effect!

[668 - Neighbor of the Beast]

While I don’t put TOO much stock in polls, they are credible about one thing: Rudy Giuliani is still viable. :(
This is unfortunate. One wonders what people are thinking. Nothing?
Still, with Fred a close second, maybe there’s a fifth of them who ARE thinking.

[668 - Neighbor of the Beast]

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=3882871

Here’s a link to the FDT interview, it was excellent!

[Uriah_lost]

I know some things about the “inner workings” of Robertson’s little empire and just trust me when I say that while he may be good or even great on the spiritual front, his judgment in matters fiscal and practical leave much to be desired. He has a habit of, as they say, being “too clever by half”.

[Donald Rumsfeld Fan]

“Gomer and Goober on the same ticket.”

LOL

Would someone please post a picture (the real ones and our very own GOP politicians who bear that moniker)?

[2ndDivisionVet]

I used to run into him and his people during the 1987 run-up to the 1988 Iowa caucuses. A lot of his followers were fundamentalists that hadn’t ever participated in politics before (and it showed) but his staffers were, to a man, hired pros who knew what they were doing. Even Madison Avenue, though, can’t make a Pinto into a Porsche....

[Clara Lou]

Thanks so much! Watching now.

[Texas Federalist]

Fred is gaining steam!!!!

[mylife]

But...But...
He has no fire in his belly..

[Brices Crossroads]

What about Gomer Huck and Goober Lindsay?

[M203M4]

I know exactly what you mean. It is well-established that there is strong feedback involved in polling, setting up a vicious "bandwagon cycle". John Smith polls high, then more people support John Smith (either because they don't want to "waste their support" - not even talking votes yet! - on a candidate "not doing as well in the polls", or because they are simply sheeple who like to play "follow the leader"), John Smith polls higher, etc. News that John Smith is "dropping in the polls" (even if just a statistical fluctuation) will then cause a run on his support. People really are that stupid, sadly (and this dynamic extends far beyond politics).

If you think of it as a math problem and you want to "solve" for current candidate support, it is an implicit relationship involving perceived support (largely measured by polls) that must be solved self-consistently, among other variables. In this way, it is actually possible to predict future polling results with some success.

That there are deviations from this construction is somewhat comforting, since it is evidence that at least some people are basing their support on something other than 'perceived support' (though it may instead be another lunacy variable, like wardrobe, appearing on Oprah, having a good/bad photo printed in the media, etc). This precise analysis is used in behavioral finance (here, instead of irrationality of economic agents, we have the irrationality of political agents). Sweet sweet dumbocracy.

[mylife]

I have to agree that the Rassmusen poll is the solidest polling Ive seen

[Jim W N]

Yes, I think he demonstrated flawed economic thinking in his 1988 presidential campaign. I don’t know what “too clever by half” means however.

[sweet_diane]

Thanks for posting the video. I missed it this morning. Good to see some footage from the Pensacola rally too! It was an awesome event. :)

[seekthetruth]

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=3882871

[mission9]

Does anyone know why (really not cynically) Robertson endorsed Giuliani?

Robertson met Rudy on a trip to Israel several years ago and they became friends. Giuliani is a likeable guy. Charisma counts in American politics, even enough to cause a minister to forsake his creed, when faced with a possibly divided Republican Party and a Hillary Presidency.

[brothers4thID]

Not necessarily. Delegates to the convention are decided differently in each state. Some states have an all-or- nothing system while others divide up the votes according to percentages won by each candidate. Furthermore, the number of delegates assigned to a state is not based solely on population. States that voted for Bush and states with Republican governors get a higher percentage of delegates.

[Fred]

Odd how the Nov 07 numbers are not on the graph



'Among the roughly 6 in 10 Republicans in the current poll who say they are, extremely likely to vote in their state’s 2008 presidential primary or caucus, Giuliani (25%) and Thompson (21%) are essentially tied. McCain (13%), Romney (12%), and Huckabee (12%) tie for third among this group.

In the prior poll, 31% of “likely” Republican primary or caucus voters favored Giuliani, with Thompson and McCain both at 20%. Given the small sample sizes of likely primary voters from a single poll, these changes are not statistically significant.'

Rudy has dropped by 6 points since the last poll....amazing.

This poll ended on Nov 14, so it would not reflect numbers for the NRLC endorsement.

[Fred]

In Iowa, if the voter is registered an independent, do they get to vote for either party GOP/DEM???