Posted on 11/17/2007 6:12:35 AM PST by TAdams8591
Every four years pundits get to swing for the fences. Only the timid split differences and hairs. The pundits worth reading will declare what they see in the very cloudy crystal ball. Here's my take.
There are two very separate battles within the fight for the GOP presidential nomination.
There is the contest between Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson to be the conservative challenger to Rudy Giuliani.
And then there is the contest between that challenger and the former New York City mayor.
It is Rudy's hope that the race to be his opponent for the Republican nomination doesn't narrow until after the February 5 primaries in New York, California, Georgia and 17 other states divide up 1,058 delegates. (The full primary and caucus calendar is here.) Rudy would love to see a long, drawn-out, bitter struggle among the contenders to be the alternative to his candidacy, a struggle that drains all three of money and energy even as Rudy piles up delegates.
Romney is counting on strong showings in Iowa (January 3), Wyoming (January 5), New Hampshire (January 8 ?) and Michigan (January 15) to send the message that he and only he can match Giuliani in appeal and fund-raising prowess. Giuliani is counting on Huckabee to bleed Romney in Iowa enough so that the Mainstream Media can proclaim Romney's showing in Iowa a "disappointment" and try to throw the race to race Rudy into disarray.
(Excerpt) Read more at hughhewitt.townhall.com ...
I really have no idea which way Texas would go. Perry came out for Giuliani for what that’s worth.
The only Republican whose name I see on bumper stickers and signs around here is Ron Paul and they are plentiful. But, then, I’m in Austin and it would be a mistake to equate how Austin thinks with the rest of the state.
Mitt doesn't fit that description. Can you imagine one of the above running on a pro-life Reagan platform like Mitt is? A REAL RINO would NEVER run on such a platform. Mitt Romney is no RINO.
I meant to say earlier it’s an obvious strategy and one I’m quite familiar with. People like Michael Medved, (a not so obvious Guiliani supporter), were outfront pushing Huckabee for the same reason.
Beat me with a stick, but what is a brokered convention?
The point is not where Mitt is in National Polls currently. It is where his strategy for winning in this election is going to take him. Right now, he is ahead in three of the first five primary states and nearly there in the other two. If he wins all three, for instance, it will propel him ahead nationally. No other Republican, is in as good a position as Mitt to win the majority of the first five primaries.
I don’t believe that and the polls don’t show that.
Currently, there is Rudy and a four way tie among more conservative candidates. That means 70+% support for a more conservative candidate. One of those four will be the nominee.
Which? A lot depends upon the money they raise and how they portray themselves. Objectively, Thompson should win. Romney has the Mormon albatross around his neck, which erodes his support among the Republican base, and worse, his former liberal positions he took while in MA.
Huckabee has good positions, but has taken some pro-amnesty and big government positions in the past.
The article gets McCain right. He’s a media darling who will drop out after the NH primary. The big question, which no one has asked on this thread, is where will that 10-12% support go? Hewitt thinks it will go to Guiliani. Maybe some of it. I think others will go to the next best horse, either Romney or Thompson. So after Romney wins IA and NH you have Romney perhaps even with Rudy and Fred right behind going into SC. I expect Fred to win that.
Don’t forget there will be more debate between now and then and people will pay more attention as the primary gets closer.
The problem with Mitt is that he has shown no teeth by which to enforce his convictions, thus being pro-life in name only. When confronted with the "gay marriage" embroglio in Taxechussets, he folded for a bogus court decision like a cheap suit. Hence my conclusion by which I stand.
“Unlike certain people on this forum, I supported McClintock, a real and proven conservative.”
You win I’ll support which ever candidate that McClintock endorses. We can join together you and I.
You do realize that Senator McClintock and scores of other conservative Federal & State lawmakers nationwide have endorsed Fred Thompson, don't you? What does that tell us?
Now he SAYS he is Pro Life. Now he SAYS he’s a conservative...
Interesting, thanks for the heads up that Mitt does not always do what he SAYS.
Tom McClintock of California?
Tom McClintock who endorsed Fred Thompson...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1918571/posts
Ah, I learn new definitions of irony everyday on Free Republic...
Good call there TA!
It's not what the party thinks, or what McClintock thinks, or what JR thinks, or what YOU think or even what my brother thinks, in the end TA supports who TA thinks is best. And my track record is pretty good.
I just find it ironic, that’s all.
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