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Deep In The Heart Of Texas: Guessing The Course Of The GOP Primaries
Town Hall.com ^ | 11-15-2007 | Hugh Hewitt

Posted on 11/17/2007 6:12:35 AM PST by TAdams8591

Every four years pundits get to swing for the fences. Only the timid split differences and hairs. The pundits worth reading will declare what they see in the very cloudy crystal ball. Here's my take.

There are two very separate battles within the fight for the GOP presidential nomination.

There is the contest between Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson to be the conservative challenger to Rudy Giuliani.

And then there is the contest between that challenger and the former New York City mayor.

It is Rudy's hope that the race to be his opponent for the Republican nomination doesn't narrow until after the February 5 primaries in New York, California, Georgia and 17 other states divide up 1,058 delegates. (The full primary and caucus calendar is here.) Rudy would love to see a long, drawn-out, bitter struggle among the contenders to be the alternative to his candidacy, a struggle that drains all three of money and energy even as Rudy piles up delegates.

Romney is counting on strong showings in Iowa (January 3), Wyoming (January 5), New Hampshire (January 8 ?) and Michigan (January 15) to send the message that he and only he can match Giuliani in appeal and fund-raising prowess. Giuliani is counting on Huckabee to bleed Romney in Iowa enough so that the Mainstream Media can proclaim Romney's showing in Iowa a "disappointment" and try to throw the race to race Rudy into disarray.

(Excerpt) Read more at hughhewitt.townhall.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; elections; hughhewitt; iowaprimary; mittromney; romney; rudyguiliani; stoprudy2008
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Hugh's correct. The race is now between Romney and Guiliani.
1 posted on 11/17/2007 6:12:37 AM PST by TAdams8591
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To: Abbeville Conservative; asparagus; Austin1; bcbuster; bethtopaz; BlueAngel; Bluestateredman; ...
A good and thoughtful analysis by Hugh Hewitt.
2 posted on 11/17/2007 6:16:04 AM PST by TAdams8591 ((Mitt Romney '08, THE ONLY candidate who can defeat Giuliani and Hillary ))
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To: TAdams8591
Bump.

The despicable push-polling in Iowa is emblematic of the desperation of folks whose candidate couldn't or wouldn't outwork Romney and see their sole salvation in an alliance with pure unadulterated bigotry.

3 posted on 11/17/2007 6:18:00 AM PST by JCEccles
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To: TAdams8591

The race is between Rudy and the rest of the Republican party. Rudy will never get enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. It will be a brokered convention, which weighs in favor of Thompson more than Romney. Hewitt underestimates Thompson’s strength in the South, the Rep national power base.


4 posted on 11/17/2007 6:20:54 AM PST by kabar
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To: TAdams8591

Rudy will get some of his backers to slyly slip just enough money to Huckabee to help him make a challenge to Romney and blunt his (and Fred’s) showings in IA/NH/SC.


5 posted on 11/17/2007 6:23:54 AM PST by George W. Bush (Apres moi, le deluge.)
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To: kabar
Would it not be a good thing to have a brokered convention? Imagine the exposure for GOP candidates, and ideals as the MSM covers the first such race in decades. Queen Hillary would be an afterthought till the MSM (oops, I mean Democrat) convention in the summer
6 posted on 11/17/2007 6:24:45 AM PST by MCCRon58 (A man unwilling to fight for freedom and liberty, deserve neither. (Ain't much of a man, either))
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To: TAdams8591

If Rudy or Romney gets to be the Republican nominee for POTUS, we will just have one party, “The Republicrat Party”.


7 posted on 11/17/2007 6:25:08 AM PST by HuntsvilleTxVeteran (Remember the Alamo, Goliad and WACO, It is Time for a new San Jacinto)
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To: MCCRon58

I agree. We would also get better candidates. In many ways, the smoke filled rooms did a better job of selecting nominees than the democratic open primaries, which are more a function of money than anything else.


8 posted on 11/17/2007 6:26:37 AM PST by kabar
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To: TAdams8591
The Republican base hates the MSM with a passion

Can't speak for anyone else, but I hate the MSM a lot more than that.

9 posted on 11/17/2007 6:36:02 AM PST by freespirited (I'm voting for the GOP nominee.)
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To: HuntsvilleTxVeteran
There is a HUGE difference between Rudy and Mitt. Mitt is THE conservative alternative, running on a conservative pro-life Reagan platform, while Rudy’s platform differs little from the typical Democratic presidential candidate, and he will have next to nothing to distinguish himself from Hillary, including all the corrupt political baggage.
10 posted on 11/17/2007 6:38:32 AM PST by TAdams8591 ((Mitt Romney '08, THE ONLY candidate who can defeat Giuliani and Hillary ))
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To: George W. Bush

January will be quite telling.


11 posted on 11/17/2007 6:39:31 AM PST by TAdams8591 ((Mitt Romney '08, THE ONLY candidate who can defeat Giuliani and Hillary ))
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To: TAdams8591
"Hugh's correct. The race is now between Romney and Guiliani."

Uh, that's not what he said. With Fred garnering the NRLC endorsement (arguably the biggest of it's kind) and strong rumors that the NRA may soon endorse him, Mitt might want to keep his receipts so he can get a refund from those TV & radio stations and newspapers. IMO, both Rudy and Mitt are unelectable, for very different reasons (corruption, morals and issues w/Rudy, Mormonism and flip/flopping for Mitt). It is sad that many can't see past a man's religion, but there it is. Everyone here knows that Hugh Hewitt is 100% behind Mitt Romney, and that's fine, it's a free country. But wishing for something doesn't make it so....

12 posted on 11/17/2007 6:39:44 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: freespirited

You have a lot of company. : )


13 posted on 11/17/2007 6:40:33 AM PST by TAdams8591 ((Mitt Romney '08, THE ONLY candidate who can defeat Giuliani and Hillary ))
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To: TAdams8591

You must know that Romney’s record is the extreme opposite of “conservative pro-life.”

Just this year as he has run for president he is running as a conservative, but his sincerity is obviously doubtful.


14 posted on 11/17/2007 6:46:24 AM PST by iowamark
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To: TAdams8591

If the race goes down to the wire, I don’t think there’s any doubt that Fred will carry Texas in the Primary.


15 posted on 11/17/2007 6:47:39 AM PST by BnBlFlag (Deo Vindice/Semper Fidelis "Ya gotta saddle up your boys; Ya gotta draw a hard line")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"A prediction: When Senator McCain exits the race he will throw his support to Rudy, and that will hurt Giuliani with the regulars. That's when the race gets very interesting, when only Romney has the cash and the organization to go one-on-one with Rudy.

And then we will finally get the debates we deserve: Giuliani v. Romney -- on the war, the economy, judges, taxes, and immigration.

It is a two man race. It has been for a long, long time.

Texas votes on March 4. If Romney hasn't already run the table, that's when the GOP will issue its verdict. George W. Bush's state is going to decide whether the Massachusetts governor or the New York City mayor will carry on the polices that W set in motion."

Though Hugh's been more supportive of Romney than any other candidate, it's never been 100%. Furthermore, he's been touting Rudy lately.

16 posted on 11/17/2007 6:50:46 AM PST by TAdams8591 ((Mitt Romney '08, THE ONLY candidate who can defeat Giuliani and Hillary ))
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To: iowamark
"You must know that Romney’s record is the extreme opposite of “conservative pro-life.”

Just this year as he has run for president he is running as a conservative, but his sincerity is obviously doubtful."

Please quit that vicious truthing about Willard! He's a "conservative" now, so bringing up his past as a liberal RINO governor of Massachusetts and him running to the left of Ted Kennedy is just not done on a Mitt thread.

17 posted on 11/17/2007 6:54:30 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: iowamark
Despite what he SAID when running for Governor, Romney's record as Governor is pro-life, and the reason he has always had the support of pro-life groups in MA.

See freeper Unmarked Package's homepage.

18 posted on 11/17/2007 6:54:55 AM PST by TAdams8591 ((Mitt Romney '08, THE ONLY candidate who can defeat Giuliani and Hillary ))
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To: Iwo Jima
FYI. Here is an article regarding the race indicating that it may come down to Texas as the deciding state. Who knows how it will play out but many are of the opinion it's Giuliani vs. the field. Hewitt seems to indicate that money will favor Romney and it may but I also think that Thompson could find funding should he show well on Super Tuesday.
19 posted on 11/17/2007 6:56:03 AM PST by deport (>>>--Iowa Caucuses .. 46 days and counting--<<< [ Meanwhile:-- Cue Spooky Music--])
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Your entire post is nothing but hyperbole and you want to talk about truth telling?

In a state whose legislature is 85% democrat with a similar composition in the electorate, Romney pushed MA as far to the right as it would go. His effort was nothing short of commendable. Given the hand he was dealt, do you honestly think you could have done better?

20 posted on 11/17/2007 7:03:47 AM PST by TAdams8591 ((Mitt Romney '08, THE ONLY candidate who can defeat Giuliani and Hillary ))
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