[Kevmo]

It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.

According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM) Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

37 posted on 11/14/2007 6:53:53 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.) [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]

35 posted on 11/14/2007 8:29:17 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.) [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]

[Kevmo]

I still haven’t figured out how to get links to work right when I post an article. For the Hunter Ping List.

It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM) Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

[longtermmemmory]

then apparently smart money is like common sense, it is not very common.

Just saw Thompson’s television ad, it says everything a conservatives of all candidate advocates want here.

This intra trade stuff still does not explain why Hunter has been dead in the water since the start of his campaign.

Even third party John Anderson in 1980 with only a dinosaur media had more in his campaign.

[ReignOfError]

The “smart money” is on Hunter? Man, how I wish I were your bookie. You’d be putting my (hypothetical) kids through college.

[Guenevere]

Good job, Kevmo!

[calcowgirl]

All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.

OR???? Maybe they changed the rules?

Candidates accept invitations to Register debate
THE DES MOINES REGISTER • November 15, 2007

Six Democratic presidential candidates and at least seven Republican candidates will be taking part in The Des Moines Register's presidential debates next month.

GOP candidates who have accepted invitations to participate in the Dec. 12 debate for their party are: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, California Rep. Duncan Hunter, Arizona Sen. John McCain, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's campaign said Wednesday he was still considering the invitation.

(snip)

[bert]

He has no chance. He is a great unknown blessed with talent but devoid of presidential electability.

[ejonesie22]

Sheesh Kevmo, do you work for Intrade?

I get it, you have posted this ad nauseum and now it deserves it’s own thread?

Fred Foundering, yeah ok fine I think we get it. Bet on Hunter, ok, ok.

You are overplaying this whole thing. Even if it is worth considering it is becoming harder to take seriously since you post it 50 times a thread.

Oh, and putting your own post in as an example of “post you have been seeing”, well I hope you see a post you make...

A vanity indeed...

[Jim Noble]

these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.

And therefore the most likely to lose in November.

[Puddleglum]

Hunter talks a good game, and votes well on many issues dear to social conservatives, but he spends like a beltway boy. In addition, his ties to the military industry would have the media digging out stories like this, and more:

http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/06/new_video_of_pl.html

[George W. Bush]

If the smart money is on Duncan, why isn't it showing up in fundraising?

2008 Presidential Election

---

Republican Candidates
Candidate	Home State	Q3 Raised	Q3 Spent	Raised	Spent	Cash on Hand	Debts
Romney, Mitt	MA	$18,396,719	$21,301,756	$62,829,069	$53,612,552	$9,216,517	$17,350,000
Giuliani, Rudy	NY	$11,624,255	$13,300,650	$47,253,521	$30,603,695	$16,649,826	$169,256
McCain, John	AZ	$5,734,478	$5,470,277	$32,124,785	$28,636,157	$3,488,628	$1,730,691
Thompson, Fred	TN	$12,828,111	$5,706,367	$12,828,111	$5,706,367	$7,121,744	$678,432
Paul, Ron	TX	$5,258,456	$2,169,644	$8,268,453	$2,824,786	$5,443,667	$0
Brownback, Sam	KS	$925,745	$1,278,856	$4,235,333	$4,140,660	$94,654	$0
Tancredo, Tom	CO	$767,152	$1,209,583	$3,538,244	$3,458,130	$110,079	$295,603
Huckabee, Mike	AR	$1,034,486	$819,376	$2,345,798	$1,694,497	$651,301	$47,810
Hunter, Duncan	CA	$536,357	$618,117	$1,890,873	$1,758,132	$132,742	$50,000
Keyes, Alan	MD	$21,218	$10,139	$22,768	$10,139	$12,629	$12,876

---

Duncan's a great guy and everyone here likes him. But fundraising and grassroots support have to count for something.

FWIW, I don't like Iowa's GOP excluding him or any of the others except Keyes (who got in so late and doesn't have a national campaign) or Dr. Klein (who nobody ever heard of outside of Iowa and also has no national campaign).

Before long, conservatives will have to pick one candidate to defeat the leftwing mayor. To do that, many of us may have to accept our guy can't make it. And I'm not saying that to try to get you to support my guy. I'm saying it because this is about whether the Republican party will remain a conservative party or not. To me, that's more important than any candidate, including my own current favorite.

[fetal heart beats by 21st day]

Go, Duncan Hunter- the man America needs!

www.gohunter08.com

[HereInTheHeartland]

So when I go vote January 3rd in the Iowa caucus; should I support Hunter (who I like) who only has 4-5% support?

That’s the big question.

The straw poll votes we had here in August didn’t matter as much; but this one picks our party’s nominee for the state.

[Pistolshot]

Intrade depends solely on those who play and do not constitute the vast majority who have either no idea how or want to participate. It is too easily manipulated by a very few. It may reflect a possible outcome, but it flies in the face of other well known polling organizations.

Even though Duncan is an honorable man, his campaign has failed from the begining. It is honorable not to 'need consultants, or have people do work for you, or write your own speeches', but the downside is you are too busy doing the small stuff to concentrate on the major stuff, like RUNNING for POTUS.

When you run a NATIONAL campaign, the objective is to get your message out to the people, not just in specific localities, but NATION-wide. And that takes people, and a management that understands what a NATIONAL campaign entails.

To that end, his campaign management has failed their man, and those of you who cannot see that are fighting a losing cause, as noble as that is, it is still a lost cause.

I know that pains you and the responses will be what they always are, childish and delusional. You will respond with all the failings of every other candidate just to make your self feel better and your guy look good, but only to you.

There will be those who say... "it's a conspiracy'...."the powers that be are not letting Duncan get his message out"......"the MSM is in cahoots with the Bush administration to muzzle Hunter" No matter that the MSM hates GWB, and there is no basis for them to even be in the same room.

The truth, as painful as it is, is still the truth.

When the NRTL endorsed FDT earlier this week, the Mitt fans, Duncan supporters, Huckabee promoters, and Rudy ravers had a complete breakdown on this forum. More inconsequential, minor-league obscure articles appeared to try and promote 'your' candidate.

Face it. The NRTL endorsement is one of the biggest chips to have on your side of the table in this high stakes game.

Next for Fred will be the NRA endorsement, with it's 6-7 MILLION members. And that will be a very big chip, indeed.

[Calpernia]

$1,000 burning a hole in my pocket? Not since I’ve had children :P

[Calpernia]

Hey Kev, any trading going on with that new character, Cap Fendig?

[kevkrom]

Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778.

Nice understatement. It's been at 0.1 (dollars per share, not percent) since early July, not just "the last few weeks".

The volume looks to be total shares traded ever, not on a daily basis. Looking at the advanced graphing link, one can easily see that there has been no appreciable activity on the contract AT ALL since mid-October, and the trade price still remained constant at 0.1 even then.

I do note, however, that there now appear to be more (by about 7 to 8 percent) shares available today at 0.1 (the minimum trading price) than there were a couple of days ago, which means interest in Hunter is actually fading on the market, and that people are trying to dump shares if anyone will buy them.

[Sun]

We can increase Hunter’s chances by calling a talk show, and reaching thousands, hundreds of thousands or millions of people, depending on what show we call.

Let’s do it!

[Mr. Mojo]

40 to 1 for Hunter to win the WH? I like those odds. ....a lot better than the Cleveland Browns to win the Super Bowl (also around 40 - 1).

[mysterio]

Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.

They shouldn't be allowed to exclude him.

[L.N. Smithee]

Once again: Here's the truth of the matter: Duncan Hunter can't get elected President until he rises to a higher echelon than "Congressman."