Posted on 11/14/2007 7:07:30 AM PST by Reaganesque
I realize everything can change fast in Iowa and New Hampshire, and some are rightly skeptical about the value of polling in a caucus state. I also recognize that some pollsters' methods of figuring out who's a "likely voter" are better than others.
But if I were a Romney guy, I'd be pretty pleased about the trends in those two primary states.
Romney's had a lead in the Hawkeye state for a while, but that lead seems to be growing, across several pollsters. Romney is up 16 on his nearest competitor (Huckabee) in Zogby, up 8 on his nearest competitor in ARG, up 23 on Rudy and Huck in University of Iowa, up 14 in Strategic Vision, up 7 in Rasmussen.
In New Hampshire, we see a similar dynamic. Romney is up 12 on Giuliani in the Globe/University of New Hampshire poll, up 11 on Giuliani in Marist, up 15 on Giuliani in Rasmussen, up 7 in ARG, up 9 in the previous Rasmussen, up 10 in St. Anselm.
When the Marist poll came out, I asked the Romney campaign what was driving that, and they responded, "we've been campaigning hard in New Hampshire, including three days there last week. Senator Judd Gregg's endorsement was certainly a boost for us. But while this particular poll may show us with a strong lead, we're going to continue to run in New Hampshire as if we were ten points behind."
Even the South Carolina numbers are starting to look better across several polls — he's leading the field at 29 percent, up 6 percentage points on Giuliani in ARG (okay, really, how is Fred Thompson getting 10 percent in South Carolina?), tied with Giuliani and one point behind Thompson in Winthrop/ETV, in a three-way tie for second and five points behind Thompson in InsiderAdvantage, leading the previous ARG by 3, and down 9 percent in Rasmussen, and even that's five percent higher than the previous poll by that organization.
Because we're seeing an effect in several states where there is advertising, and not just where Romney picked up a big endorsement (like Gregg), I suspect the ads are what is driving the Romney surge. I would also note that we've seen little, if any, change in Romney's national numbers during this time.
Just remember...Howard Dean was in 1st place right up to Iowa, where he bombed...big time. Romney is an empty suit and will crumble in the end.
Totally different situation because they have front loaded the primaries so close that I believe the person who wins Iowa can win the others. Romney is not my first choice but just being realistic.
I cannot understand this. Is it English?
When you post the link again why did you not add (.org) you continued using (.com)?
the you go again being a smart A$$!
Will you are the only one who is endlessly rude.
It is uncalled for to be testy all the time!
“It’s called a toxic blend of naivete and sleaze.”
It’s called hard work. Thompson should take note. BTW, Becket should have won the Cy Young.
I agree, personally, about Beckett. Among the Indians, I would put Fausto Carmona first.
I didn’t understand the vote at all, but the vote is the vote.
Last week alone, he spent the majority of the week in NH attending meetings and meeting people. Heck, his summer home is on Lake Winnipesaukee, so it's very easy for him to spend lots of time there. And it's not just me who thinks so. Several bloggers and national journalists have commented on the fact that Romney is outworking the rest of the pack. The above author, Jim Geraghty, seems to think so.
To your credit, at least you don't claim that he is conservative. Your 'tired' slap at Fred ("asleep") doesn't make him not a 'Republican' and IMHO he is the only conservative left in the race with a chance to win. By the way, have you seen these quotes from your "only Republican left in the race"?
“My hope is that, after this election, it will be the moderates of both parties who will control the Senate, not the Jesse Helmses.” - Mitt Romney
“In my view, it is not a good idea to go into a [Contract With America] like what was organized by the Republican Party in Washington, laying out a whole series of things which the party said, ‘These are the thing’s we’re going to do.’ I think that’s a mistake.” - Mitt Romney
“Look, I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush. I’m not trying to return to Reagan-Bush.” - Mitt Romney
“I remember in my earliest political experience my father fighting to keep the John Birch Society from playing too strong a role in the Republican Party. He walked out of the Republican National Convention in 1964, when Barry Goldwater said, ‘Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.’ Because he saw that as a tacit approval of the effort the John Birch Society was making to influence the Republican Party. I think that extremists who would force their views on the party and try to shape the party are making a mistake.” - Mitt Romney
“We do have tough gun laws in Massachusetts. I support them. I won’t chip away at them. I believe they help protect us and provide for our safety.” - Mitt Romney
“Deadly assault weapons have no place in Massachusetts. These guns are not made for recreation or self-defense. They are instruments of destruction with the sole purpose of hunting down and killing people.” - Mitt Romney
“I don’t think [The Brady Bill’s mandated waiting period] will have a massive effect on crime but I think it will have a positive effect.” - Mitt Romney
“I don’t line up with the NRA.” - Mitt Romney
“I’ve been a hunter pretty much all my life.” - Mitt Romney
“I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country. I have, since the time when my mom took that position when she ran in 1970 as a U.S. Senate candidate. I believe that since Roe v. Wade has been the law for 20 years, we should sustain and support it. I sustain and support that law and the right of a woman to make that choice.” - Mitt Romney
“I think it would be a positive thing to have women have the choice of taking morning-after pills….I would favor having it available.” - Mitt Romney
“There will be children born to same-sex couples, and adopted by same-sax couples, and I believe that there should be rights and privileges associated with those unions and with the children that are part of those unions.” - Mitt Romney
“All people should be allowed to participate in the Boy Scouts regardless of their sexual orientation.” - Mitt Romney
You be in a mess’o trouble then.
Asked and answered.
Why didn’t YOU send me an email, instead of whining to the Admin?
Just remember...Howard Dean was in 1st place right up to Iowa, where he bombed...big time. Romney is an empty suit and will crumble in the end.
Thompson, although starting slow, is picking up speed and will run them all over.
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I think you have that backwards.
Huckabee is a liberal fiscally.
Their GOP stools can't stand (missing some legs)!
Romney: On the Three-Legged Republican Stool www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLNwlbIiKsg
You've picked a difficult hobby/addiction for someone with your disability!
Dyslexia is a specific learning disability that manifests primarily as a difficulty with written language, particularly with reading and spelling.
Elections are so costly and time consuming. I hate having to think for myself. I think the Zogby and Rasmussen polls should decide who our President will be.
Every good poll thread deserves this comment.
What’s Driving the Romney Surge?
A toxic blend of naivete and sleaze.
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On the contrary — Mitt Romney fully satisfies three major necessities for the GOP nominee:
1) Conservative Policies
2) Executive Experience, and
3) A Proven Track Record of Success.
Find another GOP candidate that has all three!
People are just learning about him — and to know Mitt Romney is to support Mitt Romney.
Like cream Mitt is slowly, but surely rising to the top!
1) Conservative Policies
2) Executive Experience, and
3) A Proven Track Record of Success.
Find another GOP candidate that has all three!
People are just learning about him — and to know Mitt Romney is to support Mitt Romney.
Like cream Mitt is slowly, but surely rising to the top!
I’ve seen stranger things. I’ve seen a lot of youtube video of Romney saying quite different things.
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Examples, please.
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