Rudy in Trouble Without Iowa Win (Morris: Mitt to win primaries, but can't win general election?)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 11/14/07 | Dick Morris

[johnny7]

Neither Mitt nor Rooty can win their own state... Thompson can.

[Lakeshark]

I think he wins Michigan fairly easily. His name recognition, his track record, and the Michigan electorate's disgust with Granholm and her economic policies (that are copy cats of Hillary's) will be a huge problem for Hillary to overcome here.

Can't really say about Mass......after all they keep electing Teddy.......

[Plutarch]

This poll is from South Carolina.

Note that Romney does better among women than any other Republican. This is true in other polls as well. Romney is especially well suited to take on Hiliary, for this and other reasons.

[padre35]

And Maine, which used to be a Bellweather, but if we assume that we have a election map similar to 2004, ME and NH don’t equal to say Arkansas, New Mexico and Arizona.

And that is the trade off that would lose the election for Republicans in 2008, winning NJ may offset Ohio, but not those other states.

[teddyballgame]

“A Republican hasn’t won in the NE since maybe GHWB.”

It’s true, the landscape in politics have shifted quite a bit in the last century. Reagan once won Massachusetts and before that the South use to vote Democratic. Now the only Northeast state a Republican has a chance of winning is NH. MA, NY, NJ, RI, CT, VT will all go (D) no matter who is the nominee.

[Williams]

I seriously doubt Romney puts Mass. in play in a presidential election. There is one possibility. Romney is very handsome. It’s just possible some of the Hilary female supporters will vote for his looks.

[1Old Pro]

since Mitt doesn't have a prayer in hell of beating Hillary in a general election

Based on what?

[padre35]

MI has become so Democrat I just don’t think a Republican can pull it out this cycle, the days of John Engler are in the rear view mirror, the R’s in MI behaved like the R’s in Ohio at the state legislature level.

[Lakeshark]

It’s just possible some of the Hilary female supporters will vote for his looks.

If it comes down to looks, I doubt they will pull the lever for Hil........

:-)

[calex59]

Why is it a foregone conclusion that Romney can’t beat Hillary? With a well run campaign, I think any of the Republican front runners could beat her. Her nomination isn’t a foregone conclusion either.

Because conservatives, for the most part, won't vote for the guy, anymore than they will vote for Rudy. Rudy is starting to look bad so Rudy supporters are swinging to Mitt, but the majority of conservatives want someone else. If Rudy, for example, has a 30 percent share, that means 70 percent(I know, it is a no brainer but some people can't understand it)don't want him. Same with Mitt or any of the other candidates, including Duncan and Fred. If anyone but a conservative is nominated, and that means if anyone other than Fred or Duncan is nominated, then the republicans will lose the 2008 WH vote, no matter who the Dems run as a candidate.

It is time for the RNC to start to realize that and to go back to strong conservative values in a candidate instead of backing Rinos such as Rudy and Mitt.

[captnorb]

If the base really got energized they would get behind a conservative; Fred Thompson.

[Iwo Jima]

The fact of the matter is that the South and Baptists and fundamentalists in particular are not going to vote for a Mormon. Not saying that that is right or wrong, just a fact that I believe to be true. And if it is true, how does Romney win without the South?

[Dr. Sivana]

But if Romney wins in Iowa, he will certainly win in New Hampshire

Morris knows better than that. New Hampshire is contrarian. Without an anointed incumbent running, it makes a point of NOT doing what Iowa does every time.

2000 Iowa goes Bush the Younger, New Hampshire goes McCain
1996 Iowa goes Dole, New Hampshire goes Pat Buchanan
1988 Dole goes Dole, New Hampshire goes Bush the Elder
1980 Iowa goes Bush the Elder, New Hampshire goes Ronaldus Maximus
1976 Iowa goes Ford, New Hampshire goes Ford 51% - 49%

The best way for Romney to lose his next door neighbor of New Hampshire would be to win Iowa, if history is a guide. Morris knows this. Morris, by his nature is a spinner and can be counted on to be disingenuous.

[org.whodat]

If he get the nomination he’s own his own, I will not vote for the flip flopper.

[Lakeshark]

Given the alternatives of voitng for Hil, or voting for a Mormon who shares most of your political beliefs, it seems to be a no-brainer.

Lots of support has come to Romney from strong religious conservatives, so don't write him off with the Baptists yet.

[MplsSteve]

I should have clarified my previous remarks.

I wasn’t thinking in terms of what states Giuliani could win that would offset a loss somewhere else.

I was thinking only in terms of what states Guiliani could win that a GOP candidate might not necessarily count on.

I would expect that Guiliani could win Arkansas, New Mexico and Arizona - although NM seems to be the least favorable of the three.

[padre35]

Not quite so finished as that teddyballgame, the Republican challenger who came the closest to winning in 06 was in NJ against Bob Melendez in NJ.

So it may still be possible, and NY as well, but both just for Jooles, that name recognition up there is worth millions in Ad money already.

IMO, that is one of the reasons that some RNC types have their hearts set on Jooles, he may keep the Republican party in the NE from going extinct.

[Iwo Jima]

Dan Patrick has said for the longest that he thinks that there will not be a winning candidate by the Texas primary, and that Texas could be the decider. OR that there is no clear winner and we have a brokered convention.

Your thoughts?

[Dr. Sivana]

The fact of the matter is that the South and Baptists and fundamentalists in particular are not going to vote for a Mormon.

I am not a Romney supporter, but if the choice is between a Mormon and someone who is indistinguishable from a Satan worshipper(*), my money is on the Mormon. (I am not a Mormon, and I know about the Moroni business.)



(*One could argue that Mrs. Clinton worships herself, not Satan, it winds up being nearly the same thing.)

[Pistolshot]

The toe-sucker wants Hillary to win to keep him employed as the ‘All things Hillary’ expert.