Posted on 11/13/2007 8:08:22 AM PST by Spiff
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Rudy Giuliani on top, Mitt Romney in second, and Fred Thompson sinking in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani attracts 27% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide while Romney has moved up a couple of points to 16%. John McCain remains in third at 13% while Thompson is now tied with Mike Huckabee at 11%. Ron Paul's support fell a point to 5% and no other Republican tops 2% (see recent daily numbers).
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Senator Hillary Clinton is the top choice for 41% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Senator Barack Obama earns the vote from 20% while former Senator John Edwards attracts 17%. Bill Richardson is preferred by 5% and no other candidate tops the 3% level among Likely Democratic Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers).
Just 25% of Americans believe Democratic candidates have been “piling on” Clinton and attacking her unfairly. Democrats are more likely to believe that to be the case, but there is no gender gap on the issue.
New state election polls show Giuliani and McCain competitive with Clinton in Connecticut, Clinton competitive in Georgia, and Clinton doing well in Tennessee against anyone but Thompson. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss has solid leads over three potential challengers in his bid for re-election and former Senator Bill Frist is a very early favorite for the 2010 Governor’s election in Tennessee.
Romney is now seen as the most conservative Republican candidate, a crown previously worn by Thompson. Huckabee is gaining fast, hampered only by a relatively low level of name recognition. Polling data from the past week has been kind to Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.
Among Democrats, the campaign has become a tale of two narratives that will collide in Iowa on January 3. In one narrative, Clinton’s campaign has been hurt by the stumbles of recent weeks while the other considers her the dominant frontrunner. Both have the virtue of being true.
Finally, 61% of Americans now want U.S. troops to come home from Iraq within the year.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily, Monday through Friday. The Presidential Tracking Poll will be updated seven days a week beginning Saturday, December 1, 2007. Daily results are based upon a four day rolling average and new results are posted each day by noon Eastern.
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
I think Fred got in too late. And I think a lot of the first impression stuff about him is true. He’s a little tired and slow, which doesn’t work well in the shark pool. My take on Hunter is that if folks here won’t support him, he’s a lost cause. So what are we left with? Romney v Guliani. Oh my. Who are you supporting, btw?
The only thing McCain has going for him is that he is the next GOP guy in line and the GOP usually nominates the next guy in line.
Remember when Huckabee challenged Thompson to a one-on-one debate and was scoffed at? Bitter irony, to say the least...
“His campaign ads and appearances actually tend to work against him. The more people see him, the more his support drops off.”
If true (and his polls have been going down since he got in), then this is truly the sign of a campaign that is already over.
However, it is also true that the more people (and by that I don’t mean freepers) see Romney, the more they like him.
What is happening to Fred? Am I really going to be forced to vote for Rooty Tooty or Slick Mitt against Her Heinous??
Barf. Ugh. Blech. Oy vey.
True and 22% undecided. Poll doesn't mean spit!
Go Mitt!
Over those two I’d take Romney...but I think he’s the least electable in the general.
Is Fred becoming our Wesley Clark or Howard Dean?
Romney is the only other GOP candidate who has a chance at taking Giuliani down. Thompson's entry into the race has not gained traction, he's not going to win the nomination, and the only thing he's really going to do is be a drag on Romney and thereby let Giuliani skate into the nomination.
I just had an idea about how to get around the dating problem on the x-axis. The range you have now -- 9/5/07 - 11/13/07 -- appears to be centered on the x axis. If so, perhaps you could stretch it out over the entire length of the x axis by adding dates and dashes, like this:
Tx again for all the work you put into this project.
Hunter and Tancredo are non-starters. Fred is sucking wind.
Don’t believe the false headline, check the margin of error.
I think Dean had more mojo workin than Fred has.
But if I were Giuliani I’d much rather have those first four or five states behind me than waiting for ones that “may” materialize into victories down the road.”
No doubt about that. But Giuliani has to know that that just isn’t going to happen. So he is left with his “hope”...and he might be right.
“Human nature being what it is once everyone in the GOP sees Romney winning early on they’ll tend to rally around him.”
Romney thinks so; Giuliani thinks otherwise. Only one will be right. I have no idea who is right, but time will tell. One thing might be interesting, though: if Romney can claim his early victories, and then spin it such that he looks like the underdog who is moving on up, then...that might well be the momentum that topples Giuliani.
As for Hunter. I have heard him speak on the campaign trail. He’s fantastic. I hope he weighs his endorsement well when the time comes for him to choose sides. Which is to say that I hope the Romney folks are being nice to him and giving him the respect that he deserves. He may not be the next President, but he might be the next DOD secy. And he should be....
At least Fred won’t scream like Howard did.
Well, then I guess the Republican party base no longer exists.
Fred could still pick up most of them and I think (hope) he has a chance to do that with his recent ad blitz, campaign step-up and the NRL endorsement.
We’ll see...and hope!
Second through fifth are statistically tied, all lower than "undecided."
Is Fred becoming our Wesley Clark or Howard Dean?”
LOL.
I think Clark. NO ONE on our side is a maniac like Dean.
Clark, by the way, ran a respectable campaign in some places. He won the Oklahoma primary if my memory is correct. (Speaking tactically here, not morally...no D is ever truly respectable, of course).
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