Rasmussen Daily Poll (Romney takes 2nd place/16%)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 13 November 2007 | Rasmussen Reports

[Spiff]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Rudy Giuliani on top, Mitt Romney in second, and Fred Thompson sinking in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani attracts 27% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide while Romney has moved up a couple of points to 16%. John McCain remains in third at 13% while Thompson is now tied with Mike Huckabee at 11%. Ron Paul's support fell a point to 5% and no other Republican tops 2% (see recent daily numbers).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Senator Hillary Clinton is the top choice for 41% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Senator Barack Obama earns the vote from 20% while former Senator John Edwards attracts 17%. Bill Richardson is preferred by 5% and no other candidate tops the 3% level among Likely Democratic Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers).

Just 25% of Americans believe Democratic candidates have been “piling on” Clinton and attacking her unfairly. Democrats are more likely to believe that to be the case, but there is no gender gap on the issue.

New state election polls show Giuliani and McCain competitive with Clinton in Connecticut, Clinton competitive in Georgia, and Clinton doing well in Tennessee against anyone but Thompson. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss has solid leads over three potential challengers in his bid for re-election and former Senator Bill Frist is a very early favorite for the 2010 Governor’s election in Tennessee.

Romney is now seen as the most conservative Republican candidate, a crown previously worn by Thompson. Huckabee is gaining fast, hampered only by a relatively low level of name recognition. Polling data from the past week has been kind to Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.

Among Democrats, the campaign has become a tale of two narratives that will collide in Iowa on January 3. In one narrative, Clinton’s campaign has been hurt by the stumbles of recent weeks while the other considers her the dominant frontrunner. Both have the virtue of being true.

Finally, 61% of Americans now want U.S. troops to come home from Iraq within the year.

The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily, Monday through Friday. The Presidential Tracking Poll will be updated seven days a week beginning Saturday, December 1, 2007. Daily results are based upon a four day rolling average and new results are posted each day by noon Eastern.

Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

[Grunthor]

I wish Fred was doing better. I also wish that Mitt was trustworthy.

Either one who is closest to beating Trudy gets my vote.

[CottonBall]

And when matched against Hillary, Romney is quick on his feet and speaks well on the cuff. He hasn’t been afraid to attack her when the time comes. Hillary is going to badly dependent on the female vote, as she polls much, much more favorably with women than men. The problem? Mitt will steal these votes away from her just as her husband did in past years and just as John F. Kennedy did. An attractive family man will do that every time.

Even though I don't trust his flip-flopping history, I have thought that Romney comes off the best in the debates. He is by far the most polished - perhaps almost too polished and too much the stereotype of a politician. But he's smooth, speaks well, and does have a real family-values background - he's not just giving it lip service as so many others do.

And at least he's saying all the right things now and sounds more conservative than most. If our only choices are SantuaryRudy and Romney, I'd hope it's Romney because SanctuaryRudy could do much more damage than Hillary. (The GOP RINOs would follow him off a cliff, but just might have enough of a spine to stand up to Hillary).

[Bobbisox]

I am 57, and I find Fred distinguishing with a beautiful smile and sincerity oozing from his every word. I enjoy the pride he shows for his wife and beautiful kids. I appreciate Fred’s wisdom and his slow, steady determination as well as his deep understanding of the issues. So, I'll take older, wiser, and down to earth over slick Willard every day of the week.

Watch the polls change over the next few weeks. It will be amazing to watch these posts change and hopefully unite all Conservatives behind the one and only man to beat Hillary Clinton or any other fool they try to put up. Fred will make mincemeat out of that evil woman on a debate stage. Just picture it.

Fred Dalton Thompson, the next President of the United States. Yup…I like that!

[bethtopaz]

Maybe, jonathamo, but I doubt it. Fred Thompson seems to think he’s doing just fine with his present campaigning style.

[Michael A. Velli]

I would lean “B” because why do all that stuff and not want to win it?

Jeri.

[HerrBlucher]

I’m with you bobbisox. Before Fred entered I was not at all interested in the prez campaign and considered all the contenders but Hunter/Tancredo to be useless. Fred changed all that and as long as he is in the race I will pay attention and support him.

I am confident things will pick up for him, they have to.....can republicans really be so stupid to choose Rudy or Mitt over a top notch candidate like Fred? Believe me, if they do its sayonara for me and the GOP, I will register Independent. I may still vote for the pubbie nominee but the GOP will no longer represent me.....not one bit.

[Huck]

Doesn’t he have some form of cancer or something? Sorry to be so ignorant about the specifics.

[Uncle Ivan]

Ronald Reagan called. That picture still offends him.

America needs a true conservative, not a flip-flopping hairsprayed amalgam of John Kerry and John Edwards that is known as Mitt Romney.

[CottonBall]

I think you’re right.

[ejonesie22]

He must have something, he got Jeri...

Slick only goes so far...

[ejonesie22]

Oh please, it was all over this site. He’s fine....

[Sola Veritas]

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll
Giuliani 27%
Romney 16%
McCain 13%
Huckabee 11%
Thompson 11%

I’m not taking sides here, and I’m trying to be objective.
Therefore, if I were a Fred supporter I wouldn’t let a single day’s polling upset me. This could just be a blimp. If it continues for over a week, then it is cause for concern. My analysis is that some comments Fred made about abortion & the homosexual agenda from a “federalist” point of view, have temporarily hurt him. However, the NRTL endorsement has not had time to take effect. This should reverse any negatives about those issues.

If I were a Mitt supporter, I also wouldn’t get too excited about this day’s numbers. If the trend stays high for the next week, then it is time for you to rejoice. My analysis is that this is a blimp and that Thompson and Romney are actually tied at this point. However, the polling data that shows voters see Romney as more conservative than Thompson should be of concern to Fred’s supporters and optimism by Mitt’s. It will be interesting if the “more conservative” viewpoint is held long.

Huckabee’s supporters are of curiosity to me. I would like to know the profiles on them. I’m wondering if these are the hard core values voters? If so, then they may not move to another candidate if Huckabee drops out.

I would like to know if the “undecideds” lean a certain way and also what is their profiles.

[tantiboh]

~”I think Fred thought it would just come to him.”~

I disagree. I don’t think Senator Thompson ever really wanted it. I think he jumped in out of a sense of duty, not desire. He’s essentially thrown the match, IMO.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

if I were a Fred supporter I wouldn’t let a single day’s polling upset me.

I think you are the first one on this thread to point out this sensible fact. According to the chart we have seen, last Friday Thompson was 2nd to Rudy, and 5 points ahead of Romney. Now the results are reversed. Now what has happened over the Veterans' Day weekend to explain a net gain of 10 % for Romney compared to Thompson?
Answer -- Nothing!

Sop we will see in a few days if this is a statistical artifact or not. In the meantime this is nothing but a chance to vent.

[incredulous joe]

I was thinking Fred would come out of the gate stronger than he has? Wonder if he might be the least bit interested in the AG post if the GOP wins in ‘08?

[CottonBall]

We didn’t say he wasn’t. You’re overreacting.

[tantiboh]

~”NO ONE on our side is a maniac like Dean.”~

-coRonPaulugh-

[COgamer]

“Actually, Since Fred started campaigning in October, his numbers have dropped steadily and drastically. His campaign ads and appearances actually tend to work against him. The more people see him, the more his support drops off.”

This is one of those cases, I think, where his supporters hyped him up so high that there was no possible way he could live up to expectations. The people who recruited him to run were excited about the prospects (and you can see how dramatically it’s dwindled even here on FR) and talked him up a great deal... He’s either been unable, or unwilling, to build on that work. And again, not entirely his fault. In a way, the people who most wanted him to succeed may actually have set him up for failure.

But yes, he could still pull a surprise victory out of the air. It’s looking less and less likely by the day, tho, as his shrinking share of primary votes is currently getting split up between the other top-tier candidates.

[COgamer]

“This happened back in 2006 when people were trying to tell people that things don’t look good for the Republicans. People were called LIARS like crazy.”

I was just a lurker in those days, but I remember this very clearly. Some posters were so belligerently, obnoxiously certain all the polls were wrong (ALL of them) that they really would attack anyone who tried to say “Hey, these polls are all trending the same way... Maybe we should do something about that!”

Rove said we would not only defend our seats, but pick up new ones. And some posters just CHOSE to believe... Blindly, completely, and viciously.

[Edit35]

I really thought Fred would connect not only with the GOP Base but with Independents in Blue and Purple States.

Love the idea of having a "Fred" as US President.

But it's obvious, Fred T. is waaaaay to lacksidasical -- to attract enthusiastic support.

Methinks, unfortunately, his ongoing bout with ?cancer? has drained a lot of his get-up-and-go.