Posted on 11/07/2007 4:59:07 PM PST by Dane
Euro Surge Hurting German Exports
© 2007 The Associated Press
FRANKFURT The surging value of the euro is causing German exporters to lose orders to U.S. and Japanese competitors, industrial groups said Wednesday.
"We've long surpassed the pain threshold," Olaf Wortmann, an economist at the German Engineering Federation VDMA, told Dow Jones Newswires, after the euro hit a new all-time high of $1.4737 Wednesday.
The strong euro undermines the competitiveness of euro zone exporters, as it makes their products more expensive outside the currency area.
"It's getting difficult for export-oriented businesses," Thomas Huene at BDI Federation of German Industries said.
Germany's big chemical industry expressed similar concerns.
"Chemical products from Germany get more expensive vis-a-vis the competition from overseas," chemical industry association VCI said in a statement.
According to the VCI, German chemical exports to the U.S. have dropped 5.6 percent since the beginning of 2007. Chemical exports to Japan fell 2.5 percent over the same period, while global German exports have increased about 10 percent since January.
A stronger euro has also started to hamper German exports to other euro-zone nations, as clients chose to purchase supplies from outside the area, VDMA's Wortmann said.
But the high degree of specialization of German machines, tools and equipment has helped cushion the effects of a stronger euro, industry groups said. A stronger euro has also lowered the price of some imported goods, especially crude oil and other dollar-denominated commodities.
They do? I wasn't aware of that, thanks. I thought they just built the Z4.
OTOH, Asian currencies are still lower vs the $ today than they were 12 years ago, despite all the doom and gloom, sky is falling idiocy we keep reading here on FR. Somehow, these Asian countries still plod along, with booming economies...somehow...
I don't know if I'm an exception in microwave transmission stuff. We have contracts with Brazil, Italy, India, France, etc. for big expensive projects they just can't build. They don't have the tech. Airborne, missile and ground radar and satellite comm. You don't know this stuff the day after graduation either.
Yup. Nevertheless this movement of manufacturing has also quite horrible effects on the US economy. There are much "better" and cheaper places for the European industry than Spartanburg. I.e. Airbus opened a assembly line of its A320 in China. Boeing has absolutely no chance to compete with Airbusses mounted by the Chi-Coms. The symbiosis between European know-how and 3rd world labor forces could pose a major impact for the US industry and US jobs.
Personally I would prefer a more adjusted policy between the US and Europe to avoid such BS. The high Euro is for sure no reason for happiness in the US.
Regards from good old Europe
A.B.
Nice post.
But, for an investor, there is opportunity, and risk here. I agree wtih you, the dollar is no doubt grossly undervalued. In 94 this same thing happened and foreign markets got hammered, and the US stock market, bond market, and currency began a long rally.
Funny, at FR I never see people question the why of the USD being low. I think it is econ warfare by other countries against us, as well as speculators playing games, some of them with massive war chests like soros and buffet who are both admittedly short the USD and long the euro, oil, etc...
I believe, that IS actually how it works, but you just dump the contract before delivery. It might be europe where the buyer of a contract cannot sell off, but in our country they can be traded.
One day, nobody will take it.... What would you do, if trucks were coming to your house with a delivery? The float will need to go somewhere, and I suspect someone probably has a secret plan for storing it, and buying contracts when it craters, at prices like never imagined.
That's long term thinking on their part and the timing will be perfect for a Republican administration following hers.
Granted it’s not the late 1990’s but they still have growth.
VCI Quarterly Report
The business situation of the German
chemical industry in the 2nd quarter 2007
Lasting upswing for German chemical industry
Outlook: Lasting upward trend. Never before was the worldwide demand for chemicals ‘made in Germany’ stronger. The upward trend for the German chemical industry persisted also
in the 2nd quarter 2007: Chemical output continued to increase at a high level compared with the previous quarter, reaching a new record mark. VCI President Werner Wenning comments:
‘The robust industry business situation in Germany and throughout Europe gives further strong impulses to our business. All important indicators are pointing upward.We think that we can expect a strong positive development for the chemical market also in the 2nd half of the present year.’ For 2007 as a whole, VCI expects an output growth by circa 4 percent, chemical industry sales should increase by 7.5 percent.
Increase in production. Compared with the period from January to March the production of chemicals grew by 1 percent in the 2nd quarter 2007, exceeding the 2nd quarter 2006 by 6.2
percent. Particularly strong growth was recorded in pharmaceutical production. With just under 87 percent, production capacity utilisation continued to be high in the chemical industry.
Rising producer prices. In the 2nd quarter 2007 prices of chemicalproducts were, on average, 0.6 percent higher than in the1st quarter and had increased by 2.2 percent in the annual comparison.Main reasons underlying these developments from Aprilto June 2007 were further rising crude oil prices at internationalcommodity exchanges. The situation on energy and raw materialmarkets is not expected to relax in the 3rd quarter.
Sales hit record mark. In the 2nd quarter 2007 sales of the German chemical industry amounted to 42.2 billion euros. This is a new sales record in quarterly statistics, exceeding the good previous quarter by 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted. Compared with the 2nd quarter 2006, chemical companies achieved a sales increase by 9.4 percent. Sales growth relied equally on domestic and foreign sales.
Trend reversal in employment. Growth in the German chemical industry is now reflected also in the labour market. In the period from April to June 2007 chemical companies in Germany had, on average, ca. 436,000 staff. Staff figures in the German chemical industry went up by 0.6 percent against the 2nd quarter 2006.
"Yup. Nevertheless this movement of manufacturing has also quite horrible effects on the US economy."
Specific FDI to the US, horrible?
Perhaps because their value is relative to the ability of the local economy to sustain the market. Those markets more exposed to international influences have a greater influx of foreign investment, likely sustaining price levels or even increasing them. Those less exposed rely upon local jobs. Since we're in a downward cycle, prices in those markets drop.
I was speaking about the wider development.
There has to be a scheme somewhere because all the doomsdayers are being ignored and the FEDs are steady on course.
I am of the mind that the Bush administration is causing this decline of the dollar...to trip up the Saudis and cause the shift to the Euro being the standard for oil purchases. This chatter continues to be made around Europe with speculation that the Saudis will eventually dump the dollar when it goes beneath the .60 point.
If it appears fake to you and me, assume others think it is fake. I want to rip these people up real bad, I just don't know the options. I have $50K to play with some intelligence.
The lower dollar has many POSITIVE effects, most of which get glossed over in the gas price hysteria...
US Exports are UP because of the cheaper dollar. Last week there was an article on FR about Television/Plasma TV production returning to the United States, for the first time in DECADES.
The lower dollar, and higher transport costs make China trade less profitable...
Now, if we could just get LOWER TAXES, and a cap on UNLIMITED CIVIL LIABILITY, we might actually be able to compete again!
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