Duncan Hunter is at 5%. Vanity.

Intrade ^ | 10/28/07 | Kevmo

[Kevmo]

Hunter supporters are constantly being told that our candidate is at 1%. The only real basis for this is biased Media polls. An unbiased source would be Intrade, which has Hunter at a $5 (corresponding to 5%) ask price on the faux exchange, no activity on the real exchange. Futures markets have proven to be better indicators than polls.

Anyone can sign up at InTrade, especially in their play money futures contract market.

http://play.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

How does Intrade work?

https://www.intrade.com/jsp/tradesports/help/howitworks.html

The rumor going around is that Intrade is only for foreigners outside of the U.S. due to internet gambling laws. Note that Intrade does not accept credit cards, which could be the source of this rumor. Even if it were true, it would suggest even more of an absence of bias.

For more information on futures contracts markets and their accuracy even with play money, see Popular Science Magazine.

http://ppx.popsci.com/

Iowa Electronic Markets was the first futures exchange.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_RConv08.cfm

Duncan Hunter futures are not available at Iowa yet.

Popular Science futures market faq: http://ppx.popsci.com/help/faq.php

PPX? What's that? "PPX" stands for "The PopSci Predictions Exchange," a virtual stock market where the stocks are the future of science and technology. Think the iPhone will be the greatest hit since sliced silicon? Buy! Think the International Space Station will never get built? Sell!

Register here to join the PPX. It's fast and free, and we promise we won't give away your personal info to anyone else. Everyone starts with $250,000 PopDollars, the currency of the PopSci Predictions Exchange. You can then invest some or all of your money into one of the many FutureStocks we offer. Some FutureStock predictions relate to long term events, and others are happening this month or this year. There are lots to choose from, and we're offering new propositions all the time.

In the tutorial we use this fake proposition as an example: Flux capacitors will go on sale in the U.S. before Jan. 1, 2010. If you think this is going to be true, then you would buy the security and watch its value rise. If you don't think its true, then you would short the security and make money as it falls.

What does "short" and "cover" mean? You know the maxim "Buy low, sell high"? Well, if you think the price of a proposition will go down, not up, you can "short" that prop and make money as it falls. Here's how it works: When you short a prop, you borrow shares and sell them to another buyer. Eventually you must repay, or "cover," the shares you've borrowed, by buying more shares at the new (and hopefully lower) price and returning those shares to the lender. Your net profit is the difference in price between the shares when you "short" them and when you "cover" them. So not only can you buy low and sell high, you can short high and cover low.

If you short 100 shares of a propostion that's trading at POP$40, you pay POP$4,000 from your cash at the time of the short. If the proposition goes to 0 (meaning it doesnt come true), your position automatically cashes out and you'll get POP$4,000 (your original investment) plus POP$4,000 (your profit which comes from 40 - 0 x 100shares) for a total of POP$8,000 added to your cash balance.

The answer to the proposition I'm interested in won't be decided until 2050. What gives? Long-term propositions are an important part of the market. Even though the exchange in its current form (or the Internet in its, for that matter) may not even be around in 50 years to see a long-term prop finally pay out, you can still profit greatly from trading it because its price will always serve as an indication of whether or not the market thinks the proposition will eventually come true. Take the "Will Androids Defeat a Team of Humans in Soccer by 2050?" proposition as an example. We won't know the answer to this one for quite some time, but if next week, Honda were to demo its humanoid robot ASIMO's amazing new ability to run and kick a soccer ball at the same time, the price of this stock is probably going to jump. And if you're holding shares, you've just made some money.

What's a limit order? A limit order is a way to automatically buy or sell a given number of shares of a proposition based on its price, allowing you to make smart trades at the right strategic moment without having to keep an eye glued to the market at all times.

Let's say a proposition you're interested in has been fluctuating between POP$50 and POP$75. If you know you want to buy, but only when the price reaches the low end of where it's been fluctuating, you can set a limit order for 100 shares at POP$55. This means that the moment the stock's price drops a penny below POP$55, the market will automatically buy 100 shares of the stock for you. Same goes for selling: If you wanted to sell your shares near the high end, you could set a limit order to sell 100 shares when the price reached POP$70. A limit order's expiration date governs how long it will remain in effect-anywhere from one day to one month.

[Kevmo]

And it’s also easier to say that he’s at 1% when the people who put their money down won’t accept a 1% bid. They know he’s worth more.

So go and get him at 1% and sell it to me at the same day for 1.1% — 10% ROI in ONE DAY. I’d be happy, you’d be happy. But it won’t happen, because you can’t get him at 1%.

[kevkrom]

And it’s also easier to say that he’s at 1% when the people who put their money down won’t accept a 1% bid. They know he’s worth more. So go and get him at 1% and sell it to me at the same day for 1.1% — 10% ROI in ONE DAY. I’d be happy, you’d be happy. But it won’t happen, because you can’t get him at 1%.

For real money, I can get 402 shares at 0.1 right now. I wouldn't do that though, because it's been over 3 months since Hunter closed higher than 0.1 in the real money market.

[Kevmo]

Oh, my gosh. You actually read the analogy, understood it, and applied it. That has got to be a first in my whole DECADE of Freeping. Congratulations.

You say this is a “Formula 1” site. Given your analogy there is also another “Formula 1” team that many on this site, including the association leader, support.
***Ahh, but the Formula1 matchup vs. Formula1 for the 2 teams shows that one is better. The FredFormula1 team is a johnny-come-lately to Formula1, doesn’t really know the track, and only recently came out with such things as his Road-to-DesMoines-Conversion immigration formula1 plan. What you’ve got there is someone who puts in a show on the formula1 circuit, won’t even race in New Hampshire, and has really put his eggs in the street racing basket.

Stating Hunter is not doing well in the polls here in these forums, on this “Formula 1” site, is not always to bash him, but to try and understand why.
***Not always, but usually. Given your posting on this thread, I certainly would not call what you’re saying, HunterFormula1 bashing. In our analogy, the announcers are the ones who tell the crowd what’s going on, and they always seem to overlook the best formula1 team on the ground, but eventually the crowd starts booing the announcers. And to spell things out, announcers = MSM.

However in light of another team, it also means we have another car to race with, so the whys are not that pressing.
***Ahh, but that’s not a REAL formula1... ;-)

Think about it...
***Think about what’s important to Formula1Con fans. Prolife, 2nd amendment, WOT, anti-illegal immigration, american jobs. FredFormula1 doesn’t match up to HunterFormula1. But I gotta say, he’s a zillion times better than that POS Yugo that tootyfruityrudy entered in this formula1 race.

[Kevmo]

THANKS!

I’ve got some work to do. Hoo Rah.

[ejonesie22]

Yeah, but look at where the Johnny come lately team is on the track in this race. Unless Duncan’s crew can get the chassis straight or the motor brought up to spec for the big race, well...

Now if your team needs help we are here to try, but we also are vested in a team that maybe new but is doing well, and to us his car is every bit as good for the race at hand. Maybe the problem is Hunter's car is better for a more specialized track, but Fred's is better in the various conditions we are facing in this event.

Oh, and no Yugos allowed...

Yuck, you had to go there...

[Kevmo]

Yeah, but look at where the Johnny come lately team is on the track in this race. Unless Duncan’s crew can get the chassis straight or the motor brought up to spec for the big race, well...
***Oops, you messed up on the analogy. In this Formula1 race, the HunterForumula1 beats ThompsonFormula1 34 to 21.
http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll?poll=197;results=1
What you’re talking about is the STREET RACE. But, as I mentioned before, the Street race means zip to formula 1 fans.

Now if your team needs help we are here to try, but we also are vested in a team that maybe new but is doing well, and to us his car is every bit as good for the race at hand.
***I had such high hopes for you! ;-) First of all, the announcers have been the worst saboteurs for Team HunterFormula1. But just behind them is a bunch of guys from TeamFred. We already wiped the floor of TeamRudy buttheads, so we wonder what’s gonna happen next. TeamFred’s car may be good on the Streets, but it doesn’t win here in Formula1 land. So far, every Formula1 car that’s been allowed onto the streets has won — hands down. That’s why we focus on Formula1 rather than the street cars.

Maybe the problem is Hunter’s car is better for a more specialized track, but Fred’s is better in the various conditions we are facing in this event.
***Like I said, so far, every Formula1 car that’s been allowed onto the streets has won — hands down. We know that Fred’s car beats Hunter’s car on the street, but that doesn’t mean anything to us — yet. So if TeamFred wants us Formula1 guys to get excited about Fred’s car, then he needs to show better Formula1 creds. And since we have a better Formula1 car, we’re not inclined to get excited about that there streetracer. So the thing for TeamFred to do is to just let us be, after all the Formula1 aspect is supposedly only 1% of the whole race, right? And this here thread shows evidence that it’s not really at 1% anyways — well until just recently when the tree got shook and there’s some yummy lowlying fruit on the ground. But looking back over the last few weeks, there were no asks for less than 2 or 3% and it’s likely to return to that situation soon.

[ejonesie22]

Well then maybe the better analogy is a street race. The race is not for purist conservatives like us, but the bulk of the Republican and Conservative leaning dems. That's where a win comes in. There are not enough pure Formula 1 fans, they like street racing better for whatever reason.

Now we just have to get the "Funny Cars" off the street, they look good but can't make the turn coming up...

[Kevmo]

But, as I stated, this is a Formula1 website.

The better place to push a streetrace car is WideAwakes or www.GOP.com. The streetrace fans invade this website because, well, it’s the best website, but they forget that this isn’t a streetrace website.

There’s a reason why Formula1 cars win the streetraces when they’re allowed on the street, and a similar reason why the Formula1 website is the preferred watering hole for the streetracers. It’s those Formula1 Core Values that other candidates, cars, websites, etc. do not have and wouldn’t know where to begin to implement.

[ejonesie22]

Yes it is, but Fred is a dual function team, as can be seen by his performance here, and else where as well. We love Hunter, but we also know the realities of the race we are talking about here.

Don’t become too specialized or you will be relegated to the back of the sport pages, and we need to be front page, even if it is not totally our preferred sport.

The true function of any team, be it a street racer or a Formula 1 car is to win the race they are running in, not the one they wish they were in. Hunter is not running for Conservative of the year, he could very well win that, but he is running in the much more public National Presidential race, where the crowd and it’s tastes are a little more varied.

We need Formula 1 ideas in the big race. If that means getting a Formula 1 car rigged to win on the road, that is not a bad thing, after all, for Hunter to reach the big race, he will have to do the same. It is as you have so keenly pointed out, something Fred has done, unless you want to call out a majority of those here as not being Formula 1 fans with a love for both our syndicates, the specialized track pilot and the rough and ready street jockey in the street modified F1 car...

[Kevmo]

The true function of any team, be it a street racer or a Formula 1 car is to win the race they are running in, not the one they wish they were in.
***Good point. Let’s view this from the prism of the Kahleefornya races. We had a fast street racer that wowed the formula1 crowd, except for the few of us who stuck to our Formula1McClintock car. We kept saying that this hollywood charicature would damage our party. Did the party listen? NO, they wanted to win that street race. Did the guvernator damage the party the way us formula1 guys said he would? YES, and it’s getting worse by the day. Did the streetracer guys learn their lesson? No. They’re stillpushing streetracers onto us forumula1 guys. If we put an R in front of the car, will the streetracers vote for it? yes. They haven’t learned their lesson. Well, we formula1 types have learned the lesson. After all, this Formula1 party was formed on the basis of a previous streetracer party that wanted to just put W’s in front of their cars and vote for them (Used to be Whig party), the Whigs didn’t learn their lesson and have been relegated to the back pages of dusty old sports almanacs.

[Kevmo]

Also, if you want to bring the discussion to the streetracer side of things, we would be forced to look at that Yugo that beats your streetracer. Your streetracer needs to beat that there Yugo for us to think it is really a good Formula1 consideration.

[ejonesie22]

Well I am just glad we have a couple of Formula 1 cars to choose from, unless you are saying that we must back Team Hunter or we are not real Formula 1 folks.

Then that sounds a lot like the Team Ron Paul folks from the go cart circuit with their “True Conservatives” crap a while back...

I think there are many on this site, myself and Jim Robinson included from what I have seen, who would take exception to being called anything but Formula 1 adherents, and we back Team Fred. Must be something to that, don’t ya think...

[Kevmo]

Well I am just glad we have a couple of Formula 1 cars to choose from, unless you are saying that we must back Team Hunter or we are not real Formula 1 folks.
***Just like you were saying that it’s not knocking down Hunter to point out he’s not doing well in the streetracer polls, it’s not knocking down your candidate to point out that his street creds against a Yugo leave much to be desired. If his supposed strength is in streetracing, then let him win streetracing — impress us. After all, it’s just a Yugo he’s up against.

I think there are many on this site, myself and Jim Robinson included from what I have seen, who would take exception to being called anything but Formula 1 adherents, and we back Team Fred. Must be something to that, don’t ya think...
***And yet you yourself tried to bring the argument over to the streetracer side of things. Just be honest, acknowledge that FredForumula1 car only places but doesn’t win in Formula1, and does well (again only placing, not winning) in Streetracing. By taking exception to being called “anything but” Formula1 adherents, you are overlooking the fact that the Formula1 crowd has a better Formula1 car than yours. Fred’s Formula1 car is “good enough” to mullify the Formula1 fans, but that will only happen after the primaries and it is consequently Team Fred’s job to beat the Yugo, since that is such a strong aspect of your team’s supposed creds.

[ejonesie22]

Well I think you have acknowledged that we other F1 fans at FR had our own F1 car (I think you did) That is tuned more for the street race ahead. That is what you need to do to your F1 car as well to move on up.

Remember the primaries AND the general are not specialized races, again we are not voting on Conservative of the Year. If it were only us voting it would be different. But we need our ideas in the marketplace and to get there it is a broad based street race. It is not just purist we have to win over, after all look at how well Rudy does. Of course it is my hope that he is only doing well because no one has really paid attention yet, but there are a variety of folks in the Republican camp and we don’t hold the corner market. That’s politics, the win is the thing as long as you can get it and satisfy as much as possible your ideals. I wish it were not so and it creates some disappointment to say the least, but until we change tracks and the rules, that’s the race we are in.

[Kevmo]

Okie dokie. When Fred’s car beats tootyfruityrudy’s Yugo in that race your guy is optimized for, maybe I’ll start paying attention.

We have our F1; you have your F1/streetracer; Tootyfruity has his streetracer; RonPaul has his hotdogmobile; And Romney has, well, I dunno what it is.

Your guy has been losing some street races to Romney, so if this is your guy’s strength, he has a target rich environment in Rudy McRomney. Fred is down 3 points in the last couple of days Romney is up 4.

2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY
Gov Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 29.4 31.4 31.4 159158 +4.4
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 8.1 8.9 9.0 185582 -1.0

[ejonesie22]

Yes, well we are still up on Team Hunter...

Need to pit and get his chassis re-tuned and but quick...

[Kevmo]

Yes, well we are still up on Team Hunter...
***There you go again. Here, this might sound familiar to you.

Because that is the language of modern “conservatism” : poll numbers and bandwagon jumping and figuring out what others are going to do before you make a commitment, rather than looking at the issues and the character of the man. Every time we get someone on a Hunter thread that only argues that he doesn’t have high poll numbers, that’s like telling a crowd of Formula1 fans that they can’t even drive the car on a road. It has no meaning to them. And when the Formula1 fans turn around and say that it’s the fastest race car in its horsepower class, they’re not speaking the language of the street car fans. In our analogy, that’s the equivalent of the Hunter fans pointing out how great he is on the issues, how his track record reflects his true viewpoints rather than as a conversion on the road to Des Moines, that kind of thing. The problem here is that this is a formula1 website. So, when the street racers come onto the formula1 website

[ejonesie22]

I don’t think you completed your thought, but anyways, again, you keep trying to say Fred is a street car, not a formula one car. You also imply that some of us are holding our bets before picking a team. However with two F1 Cars, and the requisite Yugos, we have 2 Formula 1 Cars supported on the Formula 1 site. So stop trying to say that only “True Formula 1 fans” support Duncan Hunter. There are many people as conservative as you paint yourself as being that support Thompson and have chosen him now, not sitting and waiting, just like other have done with Hunter.

As far as the rest, we are not saying Hunter is not on the track, indeed he and Fred are on the same road course, the same race. We have lapped him, and we expect to stay ahead. It is up to your team to catch up and pass us, be it by virtue of finally getting in tune and passing us, or if we break down. It is not "modern conservatism or anything, just Political fact that polls are a decent gage of success before the real thing. To ignore them is folly and give them too much credence is equally stupid. But they do give a picture of where one stands.

Outside of the analogy it is arrogant presumption to say that anyone who does not support Hunter on FR is not really a “conservative”, or is a “modern” conservative. Indeed when you talk of bandwagon jumping that is exactly what you guys are doing, jumping on the Hunter bandwagon. Otherwise you would wait until the vote. All politically active folks who declare a side are on a bandwagon for their guy.

There are many of us here who are as conservative as any who don’t support Hunter for whatever reasons. Our level of commitment to conservative ideals is not tied to one man, we simply look for a champion to get the best fit into the halls of power as we can. That is, in the final analysis, the point, to win and make sure your principals are represented in our Federal Republic.

[Kevmo]

you keep trying to say Fred is a street car, not a formula one car.
***I say that Formula1Hunter is better than Formula1Fred, with a link to back it up. And racecarFred isn’t as good as racecarRomney nor racecarTootyFruityRudyYugo.

You also imply that some of us are holding our bets before picking a team.
***I have not implied that, I have no intention of implying that, if I needed to mention it I would explicitly state it rather than imply it.

However with two F1 Cars, and the requisite Yugos, we have 2 Formula 1 Cars supported on the Formula 1 site.
***And as I’ve stated repeatedly, our Formula1Hunter car beats your Formula1Fred car in Formula1, which is what matters to formula1 fans. Street race results don’t matter that much to us formula1 fans, I’ve stated that explicitly so try not to keep coming around to that.

So stop trying to say that only “True Formula 1 fans” support Duncan Hunter.
***Don’t put words in my mouth. My words are that our Formula1Hunter car is better than your Formula1Fred Car. A quick glance at your StreetRaceFred results against a Yugo and a StreetRaceRomney don’t look so great. When your guy beats them handily, come and talk to us about why the FredCar should be considered a formula1 car.

There are many people as conservative as you paint yourself as being that support Thompson and have chosen him now, not sitting and waiting, just like other have done with Hunter.
***Straw argument. Since you’re arguing against something that I did not imply, it’s an invalid argument. In our analogy it’s like bringing up baseball statistics and saying your driver is better because his middle name is Barry Bonds.

As far as the rest, we are not saying Hunter is not on the track, indeed he and Fred are on the same road course, the same race. We have lapped him, and we expect to stay ahead.
***You have lapped him in the streetracers, not on the formula1 circuit. Just keep that straight in your head. Hunter is not doing well in streetrace events, I acknowledge that. But if your guy’s claim to fame is that he can do well in streetraces, then he should be focusing on beating the other guys with the same claim to fame.

It is up to your team to catch up and pass us, be it by virtue of finally getting in tune and passing us, or if we break down.
***That’s the plan. So far, every top Formula1 car that has been allowed onto the streetraces has won handily.

It is not “modern conservatism or anything, just Political fact that polls are a decent gage of success before the real thing.
***Nope. Back to the original point of this entire thread. MSM Polls are biased. I’ve found an unbiased measure and, interestingly enough, some of us can even make money from it. Now that’s a cool polling system.

To ignore them is folly and give them too much credence is equally stupid. But they do give a picture of where one stands.
***Then listen to what the polls said the last time around and the time before that. At this point in the race, Clinton was at 3 or 4% in 1992, and Dean was way ahead of Kerry in 2004. If polls mean something to you, then that would show that at this point in the race, ANYONE can jump ahead fast. Including Hunter.

Outside of the analogy it is arrogant presumption to say that anyone who does not support Hunter on FR is not really a “conservative”, or is a “modern” conservative.
***Well, we can have that discussion on some other thread. I happen to think we came up with a great analogy and I’m going to stick with it. If you want to argue this particular point, just wait for Pissant to come onto a FredHead thread and you can take it up with him. I’m sure he’d find it enjoyable.

Indeed when you talk of bandwagon jumping that is exactly what you guys are doing, jumping on the Hunter bandwagon.
***No, in this case the bandwagon jumping is getting onto a candidate’s side because he has the streetrace numbers. Example: aRINOld, who had lots of bandwagon jumpers because his streetrace numbers were so good, but it was at the expense of the McClintock campaign. The folks who were conservative and supported aRINOld were classic bandwagon jumpers.

Otherwise you would wait until the vote. All politically active folks who declare a side are on a bandwagon for their guy.
***Poor analogy, falls flat. Here’s an explanation of the origin of the fallacy.
http://www.fallacyfiles.org/bandwagn.html
Since we hear it all the time that Hunter is a 1%er and we’re sticking with him, what we are doing is EXACTLY the OPPOSITE of bandwagon jumping.

There are many of us here who are as conservative as any who don’t support Hunter for whatever reasons. Our level of commitment to conservative ideals is not tied to one man, we simply look for a champion to get the best fit into the halls of power as we can. That is, in the final analysis, the point, to win and make sure your principals are represented in our Federal Republic.
***So, tying back to our analogy, what you’re saying is that the streetrace is really what’s important in the end. The leverage that most fred supporters use is that, since their streetracer is better than ours at streetracing for now, we ought to be jumping on their bandwagon. But once a good Formula1 car is tuned properly, it can run circles around a good streetracer, so I’ll stick with my Formula1Hunter car and wish you good luck with your Fredmobile which appears to be a Formula1/streetracer hybrid.

If you want a good glimpse of Formula1 strategy, there are 3 examples. One is Bill Sali in Idaho, a true socon candidate that the media went out of their way to step on. They claimed he was losing in the polls right up to election day. He won big. Similarly, Proposition 187 in Kahleefornya received the same treatment and won by similar margins in one of the most liberal states in the union. Of course, the best example was Ronald Reagan. When the media sees a socon running, they build themselves into such a frenzy that they can’t stop just being themselves, and it makes the choice for average americans very easy to make.

[Kevmo]

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

Posted on 10/31/2007 1:17:10 PM PDT by Plutarch