Posted on 10/28/2007 4:48:28 PM PDT by Kevmo
Hunter supporters are constantly being told that our candidate is at 1%. The only real basis for this is biased Media polls. An unbiased source would be Intrade, which has Hunter at a $5 (corresponding to 5%) ask price on the faux exchange, no activity on the real exchange. Futures markets have proven to be better indicators than polls.
Anyone can sign up at InTrade, especially in their play money futures contract market.
http://play.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
How does Intrade work?
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/tradesports/help/howitworks.html
The rumor going around is that Intrade is only for foreigners outside of the U.S. due to internet gambling laws. Note that Intrade does not accept credit cards, which could be the source of this rumor. Even if it were true, it would suggest even more of an absence of bias.
For more information on futures contracts markets and their accuracy even with play money, see Popular Science Magazine.
http://ppx.popsci.com/
Iowa Electronic Markets was the first futures exchange.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_RConv08.cfm
Duncan Hunter futures are not available at Iowa yet.
Popular Science futures market faq: http://ppx.popsci.com/help/faq.php
PPX? What's that? "PPX" stands for "The PopSci Predictions Exchange," a virtual stock market where the stocks are the future of science and technology. Think the iPhone will be the greatest hit since sliced silicon? Buy! Think the International Space Station will never get built? Sell!
Register here to join the PPX. It's fast and free, and we promise we won't give away your personal info to anyone else. Everyone starts with $250,000 PopDollars, the currency of the PopSci Predictions Exchange. You can then invest some or all of your money into one of the many FutureStocks we offer. Some FutureStock predictions relate to long term events, and others are happening this month or this year. There are lots to choose from, and we're offering new propositions all the time.
In the tutorial we use this fake proposition as an example: Flux capacitors will go on sale in the U.S. before Jan. 1, 2010. If you think this is going to be true, then you would buy the security and watch its value rise. If you don't think its true, then you would short the security and make money as it falls.
What does "short" and "cover" mean? You know the maxim "Buy low, sell high"? Well, if you think the price of a proposition will go down, not up, you can "short" that prop and make money as it falls. Here's how it works: When you short a prop, you borrow shares and sell them to another buyer. Eventually you must repay, or "cover," the shares you've borrowed, by buying more shares at the new (and hopefully lower) price and returning those shares to the lender. Your net profit is the difference in price between the shares when you "short" them and when you "cover" them. So not only can you buy low and sell high, you can short high and cover low.
If you short 100 shares of a propostion that's trading at POP$40, you pay POP$4,000 from your cash at the time of the short. If the proposition goes to 0 (meaning it doesnt come true), your position automatically cashes out and you'll get POP$4,000 (your original investment) plus POP$4,000 (your profit which comes from 40 - 0 x 100shares) for a total of POP$8,000 added to your cash balance.
The answer to the proposition I'm interested in won't be decided until 2050. What gives? Long-term propositions are an important part of the market. Even though the exchange in its current form (or the Internet in its, for that matter) may not even be around in 50 years to see a long-term prop finally pay out, you can still profit greatly from trading it because its price will always serve as an indication of whether or not the market thinks the proposition will eventually come true. Take the "Will Androids Defeat a Team of Humans in Soccer by 2050?" proposition as an example. We won't know the answer to this one for quite some time, but if next week, Honda were to demo its humanoid robot ASIMO's amazing new ability to run and kick a soccer ball at the same time, the price of this stock is probably going to jump. And if you're holding shares, you've just made some money.
What's a limit order? A limit order is a way to automatically buy or sell a given number of shares of a proposition based on its price, allowing you to make smart trades at the right strategic moment without having to keep an eye glued to the market at all times.
Let's say a proposition you're interested in has been fluctuating between POP$50 and POP$75. If you know you want to buy, but only when the price reaches the low end of where it's been fluctuating, you can set a limit order for 100 shares at POP$55. This means that the moment the stock's price drops a penny below POP$55, the market will automatically buy 100 shares of the stock for you. Same goes for selling: If you wanted to sell your shares near the high end, you could set a limit order to sell 100 shares when the price reached POP$70. A limit order's expiration date governs how long it will remain in effect-anywhere from one day to one month.
Probably. What I don’t understand is why they don’t have dropout bets for all the candidates as soon as they open on the other board... It seems like a way for them to make money coming & going. Maybe the explanation is they don’t ordinarily get much volume on those contracts, making them less worthwhile to bother with.
Well it is interesting...
Duncan may be a great Formula1 driver, but his car hasn’t gotten him off the starting line in almost a year. And he’s getting lapped.
Duncan may be a great Formula1 driver, but his car hasn’t gotten him off the starting line in almost a year. And he’s getting lapped.
***Already covered in post #79 et al.
Excerpts:
As far as the rest, we are not saying Hunter is not on the track, indeed he and Fred are on the same road course, the same race. We have lapped him, and we expect to stay ahead.
***You have lapped him in the streetracers, not on the formula1 circuit. Just keep that straight in your head. Hunter is not doing well in streetrace events, I acknowledge that. But if your guy’s claim to fame is that he can do well in streetraces, then he should be focusing on beating the other guys with the same claim to fame.
However with two F1 Cars, and the requisite Yugos, we have 2 Formula 1 Cars supported on the Formula 1 site.
***And as I’ve stated repeatedly, our Formula1Hunter car beats your Formula1Fred car in Formula1, which is what matters to formula1 fans. Street race results don’t matter that much to us formula1 fans, I’ve stated that explicitly so try not to keep coming around to that.
Intrade just added a “Ron Paul as 3rd Party Candidate” contract. They’re keeping on eye on this phenominon too.
The guy raised $4M in one day. As much as I like to dismiss him, well, I can’t any more because he’s got money and some numbers. That doesn’t mean he has my vote, but he’s made the race even more fascinating.
I understand Video game sales have taken a serious dip this week...
Hum...
I don’t get it. Yes, I’m slow on the uptake.
A lot of his support seems to be from Gen X folks and such...
They vote, and they have money.
A lot of the political landscape changed in the 1960’s when youngsters started getting vocal about the war in Nam. But it was a much stronger voice back then because the draft was in place.
This could be evidence of a political tide change, or it could just be evidence that the republican party is fractured and unable to take on Hillary, or it could mean... heckifIknow.
I vote the latter...
There will probably be plenty to second that... ;-)
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