Tropical Storm Watch for SE Florida may
be issued as early as Tuesday morning.
Noel may pass within 100 miles of SE FL.
50 mph winds, moving NW at 13 mph
Posted on 10/27/2007 7:12:41 PM PDT by nwctwx
16L.NONAME
WHXX01 KWBC 280036 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0036 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162007) 20071028 0000 UTC
That’s not an eye, that’s wind shear that makes the storm look like it has an eye.
Bttt!
Thanks for the ping!
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
The center of Noel emerged off the northwestern coast of Haiti earlier today...has since been moving northwestward at about 325/13...and is now just north of the eastern tip of Cuba. The circulation center was too close to land for the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft to fly directly through the center...but flight-level winds and surface pressure estimates are consistent with a position estimated from visible imagery. Maximum flight-level winds were 46 kt...corresponding to about 37 kt at the surface...while SFMR estimates peaked a little higher near 50 kt. The advisory intensity is set to 45 kt as a compromise between these estimates. The central deep convection is limited and the storm has a very sprawling appearance...but plenty of rainbands extend well to the east and southeast...continuing to bring heavy rains to Hispaniola. The models have picked up on the turn toward the northwest and have generally shifted slightly to the left. During the first 48 hours...the GFDL remains the eastern outlier but has come into better agreement with the others...while the GFS provides the westernmost track. During this period Noel should continue generally northwestward to the southwest of a low- to mid-level ridge. Thereafter...Noel should begin to turn northward and eventually northeastward as a frontal system approaches the southeast U.S. Coast. The models do not agree on how soon this turn will materialize and how fast Noel will move out to sea...perhaps due to variations in the predicted vertical depth of the system. The official forecast track is down the middle of the guidance...which is a westward shift from the previous advisory. The intensity guidance and official intensity forecast are essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Modest strengthening is possible for the next couple of days until westerly wind shear increases...with weakening expected thereafter as Noel heads northeastward and eventually becomes extratropical. This forecast is again in best agreement with the lgem and HWRF. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 29/2100z 20.9n 74.2w 45 kt 12hr VT 30/0600z 22.4n 75.6w 45 kt 24hr VT 30/1800z 23.7n 77.2w 50 kt 36hr VT 31/0600z 24.7n 78.5w 50 kt 48hr VT 31/1800z 25.8n 79.0w 50 kt 72hr VT 01/1800z 27.5n 77.5w 45 kt 96hr VT 02/1800z 31.0n 73.0w 40 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 03/1800z 35.0n 68.0w 35 kt...extratropical $$ forecaster Knabb
That expected track takes it along the western Bahamas late Tuesday through Thursday morning.
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
...Noel near eastern Cuba...tropical storm watch may be required for Southeast Florida later tonight.... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of central and southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Camaguey...Las Tunas... Holguin...and Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas...including the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Northern Peninsula of Haiti from the northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Gonaives. Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel. A tropical storm watch may be required for Southeast Florida later tonight. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 20.9 north...longitude 74.4 west or about 205 miles...335 km...south-southeast of great Exuma Island and about 340 miles...550 km...south-southeast of Nassau. Noel is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Noel should move between the central Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba tonight and tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km from the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches. Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas. Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola...with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches. Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible over southeastern Cuba...and the central and southeastern Bahamas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible over Puerto Rico through Tuesday morning. These rains...particularly in Hispaniola...are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...20.9 N...74.4 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
The 8 pm intermediate advisory puts out there the likelyhood of a TS watch for southeast Florida starting later tonight.
thanks for posting
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
...Noel producing heavy rain over portions of the southeastern Bahamas...heavy rains continuing over Hispaniola...tropical storm watch may be required for Southeast Florida early Tuesday... At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the government of Cuba has extended the Tropical Storm Warning westward to include the province of Ciego de Avila. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey...Las Tunas... Holguin...and Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas...including the Turks and Caicos Islands. At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. Interest in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel. A tropical storm watch may be required for Southeast Florida early Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 21.2 north...longitude 75.0 west or about 305 miles...490 km...south-southeast of Nassau. Noel is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Noel should move between the central Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba tonight and tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km from the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches. Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas. Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola...with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches. Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible over southeastern Cuba...and the central and southeastern Bahamas. These rains...particularly in Hispaniola...are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...21.2 N...75.0 W. Movement toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500 am EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
Tropical Storm Watch for SE Florida may
be issued as early as Tuesday morning.
Noel may pass within 100 miles of SE FL.
50 mph winds, moving NW at 13 mph
Everyone pray that it goes into north Georgia and ends their record drought.
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
So far...Noel has not become appreciably better organized on satellite images and the system still has a broad and sprawling appearance. Some cells of deep convection have been developing near the center but the strongest thunderstorms are generally occurring farther to the north. The Holguin radar in Cuba also indicated that the storm was not yet very well organized. Cirrus-level outflow is well established over the eastern semicircle but limited over the western part of the tropical cyclone. Current intensity is held at 45 kt which is close to the Dvorak estimates. The center is not easy to find on infrared images but a 1002 mb ship or buoy observation near 0000 UTC was likely not far from the center. The Holguin radar was also useful in locating the center of circulation. Initial motion is estimated to be 315/11. The tropical cyclone is currently moving on the southwestern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge. In about 48 hours...a shortwave trough approaching from the northwest is forecast to turn Noel northward. Thereafter a northeastward acceleration in the flow ahead of the trough is expected. The consensus of the dynamical track prediction models...in particular the GFS...GFDL...HWRF... GFDN...and NOGAPS...has shifted to the east of the previous cycle around the Point of closest approach to the Florida coast. Accordingly the official track forecast has been shifted slightly to the east of the previous one in the 36 to 48 hour time frame... albeit not quite as far east as the model consensus. The nearby presence of a weakening upper-level cyclone is probably still having a slight inhibiting effect on the intensification of Noel. Water vapor images suggest that this upper low is in the process of dissipating. Therefore some increase in strength is likely during the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter...westerly vertical shear is forecast to become prohibitively strong and this should halt the intensification. By day 4 or sooner Noel will be embedded in a strong baroclinic environment and should be transformed into a strong extratropical cyclone. After consultation with the Miami WFO...a tropical storm watch is not being issued at this time for Southeast Florida. High wind watches are already in effect for Miami-Dade...Broward...and Palm Beach counties due to the expectation of an increasing pressure gradient produced by the combination of a strong surface high building over the eastern U.S. And the approach of Noel. However...a tropical storm watch may still be required for Southeast Florida early Tuesday....depending on the forecast track and wind radii of the tropical storm. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 30/0300z 21.2n 75.0w 45 kt 12hr VT 30/1200z 22.2n 76.3w 50 kt 24hr VT 31/0000z 23.3n 77.6w 55 kt 36hr VT 31/1200z 24.4n 78.4w 55 kt 48hr VT 01/0000z 25.5n 78.5w 50 kt 72hr VT 02/0000z 28.5n 75.5w 45 kt 96hr VT 03/0000z 33.0n 70.0w 45 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 04/0000z 38.0n 64.0w 45 kt...extratropical $$ forecaster Pasch/Roberts
Hear, hear. As much as we could use a bit more rain here in southern MD, they need it far far more.
Of course I would never say never...unfortunately, all the models are in agreement that Noel will approach the SE FL coast, then slingshot NE away from the U.S.
I think I saw that too.
Thanks for the ping.
bttt
a sporadic downpour or two before that and some serious rain on Thursday and Friday
.
“They” don’t know if they got the information from a buoy or a ship? Maybe it’s the “Global Warming Crowd” seeding them wrong information. :-)
Going for a bit of humor this morning.
Thanks for the ping! It’s a lovely windy morning over here in Central FL..
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