Posted on 10/15/2007 12:33:28 PM PDT by Brilliant
Oil prices surged as high as $86 a barrel Monday for the first time after OPEC said crude production by non-member countries is likely falling even as global demand for oil is rising.
Prices were also supported by concerns Turkish forces will pursue Kurdish rebels into Iraq, disrupting oil supplies, and by technical buying by investment funds.
Despite the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision last month to boost its production by 500,000 barrels per day beginning next month, the rest of the world will likely produce 110,000 fewer barrels of oil per day than expected in the fourth quarter, OPEC said in a report.
At the same time, fourth quarter demand for crude oil will grow by 100,000 barrels a day over last year, OPEC said.
The estimates add to sentiment that crude supplies are tight. Last week, the Energy Department reported that domestic crude inventories fell during the week ended Oct. 5 when they had been expected to rise. And the International Energy Agency concluded that oil inventories held by the world's largest industrialized countries have fallen below a five-year average.
"The fact that U.S. crude inventories fell yet again ... reinforced the market's underlying concern that demand has yet to slow down sufficiently to allow stocks to build, while supply is also perceived to be struggling to catch up," wrote Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global UK Ltd., in a research note.
Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose $2.16 to $85.85 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising as high as $86, a record trading price.
Despite the gains, oil is still below inflation-adjusted highs hit in early 1980. Depending on the adjustment, a $38 barrel of oil in 1980 would be worth $96 to $101 or more today.
In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 6.53 cents to $2.1504 a gallon, while heating oil futures rose 5.03 cents to $2.2967 a gallon.
Nymex natural gas futures rose 43.3 cents to $7.407 per 1,000 cubic feet on forecasts for cooler weather next week in the Northeast and Midwest, and on worries a storm in the Caribbean Sea will move north and develop in strength, threatening key oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.
In London, Brent crude futures rose $1.96 to $82.51 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
At the pump, gas prices fell 0.4 cent overnight to a national average of $2.757 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service.
The Turkish government's decision on Monday to ask Parliament for permission to pursue Kurdish rebels into Iraq stoked worries that hostilities will disrupt oil supplies, analysts said.
"Oil out of the northern (Iraq) fields has been erratic for some time," said Linda Rafield, senior oil analyst at Platts, the energy research arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. "But complete disruption would definitely be bullish for this market."
Technical buying by investment funds is also driving oil's record run, analysts say. Data released Friday show that speculative buying of oil contracts increased last week.
Many investment funds automatically buy or sell oil futures when prices hit certain levels. In recent days, as oil has pushed into new record territory, several of these resistance prices levels have been broached. That triggers new buying, driving prices even higher.
"Funds tend to trade more on the technicals," Rafield said.
“The Turkish government’s decision on Monday to ask Parliament for permission to pursue Kurdish rebels into Iraq stoked worries that hostilities will disrupt oil supplies, analysts said.”
Thanks a bunch, Nancy Pelosi.
Hooray for my energy stocks! How about that!
Drill ANWR, drill the Everglades!
Yes, Dems promise...then pull this Turkey stunt.
Sheesh.
Wall Street Falls Amid Unease Over Bad Debt; Oil Spikes Above $85
NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks pulled back sharply Monday as news that major U.S. banks will set up a fund to help bail out the credit markets stirred concerns about bad debt. Bonds fell after an upbeat economic reading.
The stock market’s pullback follows concerns about debt but also as investors also await third-quarter reports due this week from more than 80 members of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. In addition, oil pushed to new highs.
Concerns about banking drew investors’ attention. Citigroup Inc., the nation’s biggest financial institution, reported that third-quarter results fell 57 percent because of investments in mortgage-backed securities. The drop wasn’t as severe as the company had warned could occur.
The bank — along with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. — announced the creation of a fund used to help revive the asset-backed commercial paper market. The fund will buy assets from structured investment vehicles, also known as SIVs, which buy corporate bonds and subprime mortgage debt. The bailout was orchestrated by the Treasury Department to avoid a fire sale in the market.
“It’s a reminder that this problem never was entirely put to bed. There may be financial institutions out there than are in more trouble than we thought they were,” said Aaron Gurwitz, co-head of portfolio strategy at Lehman Brothers Investment Management, referring to concerns about bad debt. He also noted that Monday’s session wasn’t unusual given the back-and-forth moves in the major indexes in recent sessions.
In midday trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 112.51, or 0.80 percent, to 13,980.57.
Broader stock indicators also fell. The S&P 500 index fell 10.80, or 0.69 percent, to 1,551.00, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 17.53, or 0.62 percent, to 2,788.15.
Bonds fell following a better-than-expected economic regional economic reading in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.69 percent from 4.65 percent late Friday. The dollar was mixed against most other major currencies, while gold prices rose.
Light, sweet crude rose backed off of record levels set when it crossed $85 per barrel for the first time. Oil recently traded up $1.64 at $85.33 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as tensions rose between Turkey and Iraq, stirring concerns about the availability of supplies.
The week’s economic calendar is light, putting more of the focus on quarterly results. On Monday, the New York Empire State Index — a regional economic indicator published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — came in better than expected for October. The index rose to 28.75 from September’s 14.70.
Investors are keeping tabs on corporate and economic data as they try to determine how well corporate profits will fare.
“All those guys are tempering their expectations because the economy is slowing,” said Thomas Nyheim, vice president and portfolio manager at Christiana Bank & Trust Co., referring to Wall Street’s estimation for moderate growth in third-quarter profits.
Investors could also look to comments from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who is expected to deliver a speech at the University of Texas during the session. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to speak before the Economics Club of New York Monday night.
In corporate news, Citigroup fell $1.33, or 2.8 percent, to $46.54 after the bank raised its loan-loss provisions by $2.24 billion — a higher amount than it estimated a week ago — amid expectations of further deterioration in consumer credit. The bank also said it would delay repurchases of its shares.
Medtronic Inc. fell $7.08, or 12.6 percent, to $49.25 after the company said it suspended sales of its Sprint Fidelis defibrillation leads because of risk they could break.
Biogen Idec Inc. jumped $14.40, or 20.7 percent, to $83.83 after the company said it may sell itself and has attracted some interest from potential buyers.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 524.1 million shares.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 8.13, or 0.97 percent, to 833.04.
Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average closed up 0.16 percent. In afternoon trading, Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 1.28 percent, Germany’s DAX index fell 0.89 percent, and France’s CAC-40 fell 0.62 percent.
Drill the entire length of California.
“The Dems promised to reduce the price of gasoline. But the price has gone straight up since they were sworn in.”
The looney left base loves it. If gas is expensive, people won’t use it, the left reasons. What? Gas to go to work... silly person, the left doesn’t work.
Class warfare comes into play as well, the left assuming those who drive SUVs will be hurt the most.
Pave the whales!
Can someone explain why my gas is cheaper now then during the summer months?
Must be a local phenomenon. Mine’s about the same, maybe even a little higher.
And nancy pelosi, the highest ranking democrat in the US govt., helped bring oil prices higher(the resolution condemning the Turkish) all because the President hasn't called poor wittle nancy.
Pelosi Says Bush Hasn’t Phoned Her About Turkey and Genocide
I just filled up my home oil tank with that thought in mind.
Your gasoline retail will be going up in price soon. RBOB gasoline is now $2.16, which is 15 cents higher than a couple weeks ago and within ten cents of its high.
Heating oil is $2.31, which is ten cents higher than last week, which was already at the all-time high.
Doesn’t matter. Peak Oil was in 2004. We’re on the downslope now and several Big Oil companies are already in trouble even with the $80 crude.
This is directly because the scumbag democrats won’t let us drill on our own land. The Arabs that hate us and the euro-trash that are jealous of us have joined together to make the euro the coin of oil transactions. This is why our dollar is now worth less than Canadian monopoly money. Canada, a country with a robust economy roughly equivilent to that of Lower Slobovia, now has money worth more than our’s thank to our bottom feeding skunk democrats.
They can afford to hurt our economy because their supporters aren’t of our society. They might have been born in America but they are not OF America.
“Peak Oil was in 2004.”
Do you mean: Peak production from 2004 through today?
Or do you mean Peak Oil production forever was reached in 2004?
If you mean the second statement, prove it, please.
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