It may be Rudy’s to lose but if so he is going to lose it. A large part of his support is name recognition. That advantage will disappear before the first voting. Another large part of his support comes from the erroneous perception that he is likely to win in November. That too will fade. Barring Ron Paul, Rudy was the weakest candidate on the stage last night. Sooner or later even the most bone-headed Rudyphiles will have to grapple with the reality that many voters Republicans can't do without will not vote for America’s Mayor under any circumstances.
With Rudy as the nominee it would be game, set and match to Hillary. When the Republican primary electorate realizes this it will coalesce around an alternative, either Thompson or Romney, and Rudy will crash and burn.
At this point the polls are evidence only of which candidate has recently gotten the most favorable publicity. They ask people what they think about a race they haven’t yet thought about and then report the results as if they have deep meaning. When, as the old saying goes, you ask a stupid question you get a stupid answer.
Whether you are picking stocks or candidates it pays to focus on the fundamentals. Whatever the polls may say this morning Rudy is a nonstarter.
Giuliani has been receiving an extreme amount of coverage and scrutiny in the press over his record, persona and relationship with the conservative GOP base.
But he is still is leading in the polls very steadily since May, trending upwards to the point he will probably crack the 30% mark again. He defies all of the pundits who said he would crash and burn. We have been hearing this since January, but guess what, it’s not happening, he’s rising in the polls even as attention is put on the supposed conservative exodus that is claimed would happen. He has the highest favorability ratings of any candidate in either party. He has the best name recognition of any of the candidates other than her highness. You mentioned his “America’s Mayor” moniker, a recognition and respect most candidates would kill to have.
Giuliani is an incredibly intelligent and powerful public speaker. He made a habit of not using prepared speeches while mayor, so he’s quick on the fly, and utterly absorptive of any issue material. He knows the stuff. His history as a crackerjack prosecutor gives him the kind of debating ability most candidates lack. That ability will be needed to combat Hillary. She will make very few campaign mistakes, it will be an ice cold campaign. So far Giuliani has been consistently at the top of each debate so far if not outright winning each one.
Thompson has not demonstrated he has the energy, charisma or competency at this point that is required to be president. The best Fred Thompson speech ever was right after he was sworn in to the Senate. I remember watching it thinking this guy is a great speaker, he’s likable, engaging, he should run for president. We did not see that last night.
I think Romney could still catch Rudy, especially since Romney is looking good to easily take Iowa. Romney has high energy, knows his stuff, and is engaging. Rudy is catching up in NH, and if Rudy wins NH, its over for Romney. BTW Rudy is up in the latest Michigan poll, another bad sign for Romney. Fred’s numbers are artificially high, due to his LA Law show only.
Huckabee should be polling higher than Fred, as should Duncan Hunter, both far more competent and energetic than Thompson. I think Huckabee is angling for the VP slot with Rudy or Romney. huckabee told James Dobson to go to hell with his third party idea, he said ““No, I think a third party only helps elect Hillary [Clinton],”“I don’t see that being a good strategy for those who really care about pushing a pro-family, pro-life agenda.”
Bottom line, like Huckabee, I want to win 2008. WE CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE TO HIIALRY. What many are in fact promoting is to chase an unqualified narcotic candidate in the name of political ideology, only to later get stomped in a general election by Hillary, which results in decades of real tangible and painful setbacks to conservative causes. Sorry, that’s a suicide pact. I want the best candidate. Unfortunately Giuliani is not a conservative, he’s a center right moderate, but country comes for me before ideology and party and the best way for me to see moving America towards the values I follow, we need to win 2008, not lose and hopefully regroup.
It may be Rudy’s to lose but if so he is going to lose it. A large part of his support is name recognition. That advantage will disappear before the first voting.
Six months ago I would agree with you, but aren’t we less than 90 days until the first vote is cast. I cannot believe that Thompson has no kicked butt like all the FREEPERS said he was going to. It has been said that he practiced for two weeks for the debate last night...What happened???? All these excuses were said in 2006 and unfortunately I believed the statements only to be “hit in the face” with reality on election day. FREEPERS need to take the rose colored glasses off. Trust me I hope that Fred is the winner of the primaries, but hoping is different than actuality. Results are needed NOW!!!!