Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Yes, your vote will then be counted among those that are so blinded by one single issue that they chose by default to elect Hillary instead.
Then you’ll get that socialism you speak of.
Stop ingesting the stuff being fed to you by the elite media, right or left. Try doing some thinking for yourself if you have the capability. If not, it’s a pity, but not surprising.
Evil is evil.
Yes, but this is reality. In many cases you have no choice but to choose from the lessor of two evils. Ignoring this fact does not make it go away.
call me dense, if you dont support the nominee you in effect elect the beast, that is the definition of dense. I don’t necessarily like Rudy, but he has to be better than the hildabeast. We know what it was like under one clintoon administration, the beast will be worse. I will not vote for hillary, but a vote for a third party is the samething.
Ah, but this is not such an occasion. We have plenty of time to eradicate Rudy from serious contention.
We do need to coalesce around one consistently conservative "umbrella" candidate. And now, while making it clear that the fracturing of the Base by the liberals means...Rudy has to go. That will drain away the logic from those who mindlessly support him based on a "winnability" thesis.
I will be blunt, to get there, we need to get the field dramatically narrowed. Without question Brownback should withdraw. Also obviously there as a favor to Bush. Huckabee should withdraw. Too liberal. Romney should face the financial realities. His campaign is held up by his checkbook alone. His credibility is seriously questioned. He should stop the bleeding, and withdraw and throw his support to the guy whose views he has tried to echo. We know who that is. We also know who else needs to go. Tancredo. He also needs to stop splitting the border enforcement consensus, and throw his support to Hunter, and then we have a four-way contest still, between him, Giuliani, McCain (who will NEVER withdraw), and Ron Paul...who will also obviously be there to the end.
We may well be looking at a brokered Convention here in St. Paul, but I frankly feel that Hunter would do quite well based on his history and solid positions, he will appeal to enough delegates to break the slates.
so, you in effect put the beast in office. not just a socialist, worse. Rudy might be considered by many on this forum as a socialist, but he will not destroy this country as fast as the Hildabeast will. At least with Rudy after four or eight years we may be able to save the U.S. with the Hildabeast it would in my view be questionable.
Your perspecitve is mistaken.
Do you want national health care - socialized medicine? That's Hillary's prime goal once in the W.H. With democrat majorities in the House and Senate vitually a given, and Hillary in the house, we may get to wait 3 months or more for critical surgery.
No, it's like saying I'd rather be alone than with either one.
A vote for a third party candidate is like throwing it away.
I don't care who the Republican nominee is...he will get my vote.
“I don’t necessarily like Rudy, but he has to be better than the hildabeast.”
He isn’t, and voting for him, even against Hillary, is unacceptable to 27% of the base. On the things that matter, to moral conservatives, there is NO difference between the two. Actually, Rudy scares me more that Hillary.
This sucks, as I admire Rudy’s accomplishments. But we have to face reality, so supporting him in the primary is unwise.
I’ve concluded that Fred Thompson is the best choice for President. But Giuliani would be a great choice for running mate, as he would bring great strengt in the northeastern states.
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