Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
I like the way you put this.
TitansAFC, maybe that should be the "Dump Rudy" ping list. ;-)
But to your dramatic post, I think that since we are at war in two theaters, most Republicans and Conservatives would for sure vote for a candidate that has the temperament, tone, attitude, a certain ruthlessness, and foreign policy ideas to fight our enemies abroad, being that we have boots on the ground right now, at this moment.
And that in no way comes close the Hillary and Bill Clinton, and does reflect whomever of our viable candidates is nominated.
A serious, mature, and rational voter, (which most Conservatives are), will not just ask who they are voting for, but also ask who they will ELECT.
So, obviously I’m sticking with the good guys, lol, and not participating in the election of a antiamerican party member, ie, Dimocrats like Hill and Bill.
Bullhockey.
I will vote for the republican nominee no matter who it is. And the tactics that the anti Rudy people are using sicken me. If the alternative weren’t Hillary Clinton I would quit the republican party, quit voting and say to hell with all of you.
I will put no pressure on the republican leadership in the name of you loonies!
Track back to the original question at #133—it was a hypothetical to try to prove a point (one that the intended respondent wouldn’t answer)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1906547/posts?page=133#133
Is it just me or have IQ's on FR dropped precipitously?
Not true, Reagan got over 50% of the vote.....even with Anderson not being in the race Reagan wins.
I remember this and I was just in Jr. high. You might want to go and find a site that has the old numbers.
Bottom line is we have to ALL vote for the one who will beat Klinton or else we can kiss this country good by.That’s the whole story for me . As horrible as abortion is even worse will be Klinton in the White House . t will indirectly cause more deaths than one can imagine ( Islamic attacks , Iraq killing fields ect.)PLUS all the abortions will continue.Th esupreme court will decide abortion not the president wo is elected.
Loonies?
People that want a pro-freedom, pro-gun, pro-life, pro-traditional marriage President who doesn’t have a record of abusing the Constitution and appointing liberals to the courts and corrupt cronies to their administration are “Loonies”?
Thank you!
O.K., just let them pressure you instead.
Who did Bill Clinton nominate to the SC and who did Bush nominate? Are you saying you'd rather have Clinton than Bush if you were able to choose between the two???
Oh, I see now. Thanks.
“It’s proof that a Pro-Life third party would be idiotic, not proof that Rudy can’t win.”
What an assinine statement. There are a great many of us “moral” conservatives that absolutely will not vote for Rudy the Rumpranger in a general election...even against Senator Clinton....We just don’t see the significant difference.
Bottom line....AND GET IT THROUGH YOUR HEAD....a vote for Guiliani is a vote for the destruction of the Republican party. The “moral voters” (the party’s base) will not vote for Rudolph...EVER. With the base of the party ready to stay home or vote third party if Rudy is the republican candidate.....he has NO chance of winning in a general election. If one wants to maintain the coalition that is the Republican Party, then Guiliani must go.
See, now there's another thing. I get so tired of seeing this bogus statement.
FYI: Congress has the power to limit the Court's jurisdiction in this matter as well as any other specific area of the law.
Congress could, if it would, simply remove that hot-button issue from the federal courts. Then of course, it would remain for the state courts to rule on each state's own laws.
Now that we all know were the real responsibility lies, we can all go convince our Congressman and Senators to do the right thing.
No President needed.
No "test case" needed.
No majority on the Supreme court needed.
Just some backbone, guts, and huevos in Congress.
“PROOF that 27% of Republicans are IDIOTS”
No, it’s proof that 27% of Republicans have taken a principled stand. Those of you that keep backing Guiliani are just plain ole prideful fools.
The fact that Guiliani could have progressed this far indicates that maybe it really is time to start a more trully conservative new party. Personnally, I’m sick to my soul of “Goldwater Republicans.”
NOW is the time to change that which we can.
“Can you say hello President Clinton. thanks to the 27% of Christians who would rather have a communist dictator, than Rudy.”
How utterly dense can someone be. Rudy is a homophile, a gungrabber, and worse a baby killer. He ran NYC like a dictatorship. So, what is the significant difference between him and Mrs. Clinton? They are both bad news. No lesser evil here at all. Keep hurling insults at principled Christian voters and you just further the rift in the party. IF the party is SO important, then ditch Rudy. Without the base, he cannot win.
Sorry if this has been asked, but who might this third-party candidate be? Any ideas. Otherwise, it’s kind of silly to speculate on all this. It’s unlikely a conservative Republican is going to leave the party just to make a point in the election, assuring a Hillary victory. Of course, Rudy will probably choose a pro-life running mate.
“Rudy will have this nomination locked up by Feb...”
Then Mrs. Clinton will be sure to be elected in November 2008. The Republican party will lose 1/3 of the real stalwarts and it will cease to be viable.
“Think Rudy will be bad? Consider the alternative. I rest my case.”
No dice, I won’t vote for that vile person. His presidency will be no better than a Clinton one.
IF you really cared about the country, you would TELL RUDY NOT TO RUN. Plus, you wouldn’t vote for him either.
The battle lines are drawn and they a getting more set. A vote for Rudy is a vote for Hillary to be president....plain fact.
You rabidly anti-Rudy types keep spouting this nonsense yet it has no basis with reality. You are so overcome with Rudy Derangement Syndrome that you're showing no better rationality than the far left.
In case you are unable to grasp the difference, just look at Rudy's foreign policy views vs. Hillary's and think about the difference in judicial picks.
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