The following summarizes pretty well what happened to AQ in Iraq, found at:
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq/articles/20071003.aspx
Al Qaeda has lost half its leadership over the Summer, and American intelligence collectors have amassed a huge number of desperate messages from al Qaeda leaders and operatives. Terror attacks are down by more than half because al Qaeda keeps getting run out of their refuges, and, in desperation, keeps asking each other for help. There is not much help. Couriers are still getting through with cash, to buy people and bomb making materials. But most of this stuff is now getting captured, as safe houses are quickly abandoned. When the terrorists are unable to escape, they more frequently surrender, rather than fight to the death. This is a sign of falling morale. This is what the psychologists predicted as the number of desperate messages grew. For the troops, this is a mixed blessings. But as more of the hard core are cornered, you also come up against heavily armed men, ready to fight to the death. Sure, you can eventually clear out the civilians, back away and let the smart bombs finish the job. But that initial encounter with desperate terrorists, determined to take an infidel with him, can be unnerving, and dangerous. Increasingly, large groups of terrorists are being cornered. Over the weekend, at least sixty terrorists were killed in several engagements.
The increasing amount of intelligence, from captured materials and interrogations, has also uncovered the identities of many Iraqi army and police personnel who are working for Sunni and Shia terrorist groups. The Shia militias have also been under increasing attack lately, producing much evidence of traitorous cops. As a result, dozens of security force personnel have been arrested in the last week, and accused of working for the enemy. Some worked out of conviction, but most were either bribed or blackmailed (threats of death or kidnapping of kin).
The Afghanistan/Pakistan front
Proportionally, AQ and the Taliban have had it much worse. As with last year, these forces have moved in large numbers which has resulted in their detection, engagement and destruction in large numbers by coalition forces. While still looking for some final figures, the dailies from Afghanistan indicate that the death toll for AQ/Tali in Afghanistan is in the thousands, while few Coalition forces have been killed. AQ/Taliban forces have resorted to intimidation of outlying villages and kidnappings to try to supplement their poorly conducted suicide bombing campaign. This has just galvanized the native Afghani into reporting AQ/Taliban activity, knowing that they will receive support from the Afghan and Coalition forces.
The big question mark for next year is Pakistan's determination to close border provinces and refuse AQ/Taliban sanctuary there. This is a very tough call as Musharrif doesn't have the military or political clout to move into those areas. I think the dam is weakening on the Pakistani reluctance to allow Coalition strikes in these areas, provided they can have plausible deniability and 'rage' against the US. This may also be the reason AQ/Tali camps were abandoned and activity has resumed in the Tora Bora area, anticipating Coalition strikes. Will have to see how this plays out over the next several months.
"Al Qaeda has lost half its leadership over the Summer, and American intelligence collectors have amassed a huge number of desperate messages from al Qaeda leaders and operatives. Terror attacks are down by more than half because al Qaeda keeps getting run out of their refuges, and, in desperation, keeps asking each other for help."
Thanx Zilla