But all of this is not to say that Mulhern's arguments are dispositive of the nomination, especially when it comes to the stubborn and remarkably coordinated campaign waged by Mitt Romney. Romney is emerging as the Energizer Bunny of the primary season. His campaign reflects his biography. No campaign today, not even Rudy Giuliani's and certainly not Fred Thompson's, can match Romney's applied organizational skills. And it is in this zone that Mulhern tries to slip us an inside curveball. It might be good conservative theoretical doctrine to say that we conservatives do not seek a manipulator in chief. It might even be reassuring to point to Ronald Reagan as the beau ideal of the detached president who sets the larger goals and refrains from micromanaging. But one might also be made somewhat uncomfortable when we reflect that this practice nearly cost Reagan his presidency when his inattention permitted the Iran-Contra debacle. Who can say in the wake of Katrina that the American public should not be very mindful to select a man they believe can actually make government work for a change.
Giuliani's entire campaign to Republicans, apart from name recognition and his heroics on 9/11, has been expressly grounded in the argument that he is a chief executive who has actually been in control of government and that he has made it work by cutting taxes and cutting crime. In fact, Rudy's stump speech and his book couple this with a how-to version of running the government. This strategy got Giuliani to the top. Mulhern can say what he will but Rudy's message got him to number one in the polls.
In reading Mulhern's piece one must be careful because he bobs and weaves between criticisms of Giuliani-which are well-received on this forum-and criticisms of Romney which are inapposite. For example, Mulhern claims without citing a shred of evidence that, "Even his greatest admirers usually concede that he is too slick and too packaged to seem entirely trustworthy." This is utter rubbish. We are picking a candidate here and it is not upon this sort of nonsense that are decisions ought to be made.
Mulhern takes two arguments in favor of Thompson. The first is that he is inevitable by virtue of a process of elimination. He is persuasive that Rudy Giuliani will be eliminated by the social conservatives which dominate the Republican base but he is far from persuasive when he sees the elimination of Romney as being inevitable. The second is that Thompson is the ideal man for the position and here too we must be careful not to accept Mulheren's assertions just because he makes them. As I have already pointed out, there is no evidence that America is looking for a hands-off administrator in the oval office. In fact in the wake of Katrina and the botched post invasion occupation of Iraq, the opposite conclusion seems more likely. Finally, there is nothing in Mulhern's remarks which persuade us that Thompson will be better at setting a conservative agenda than Romney and especially when one recalls that Thompson has had his problems with the vital issues of immigration and abortion.
I have long posted that this nomination process will come down to Thompson and Romney with Thompson the probable victor. I have also long been posting in the teeth of much opposition that neither man can win if he does not find a way to dramatically change the entire course of the election. So far, neither man has shown any real disposition to do so perhaps because neither man has articulated any evidence that he believes that to be the case.
Barring a dramatic incident between now and election Day, this election belongs to the 'rats. On a state-by-state geographical breakdown the Republicans are in serious trouble when all the border states and even (gasp) Virginia were lost in the last election. We just lost Ohio, gone the way of Pennsylvania, likewise Missouri, and we simply cannot win the presidency without Ohio and Missouri and Virginia. By November we will have held office going on eight years and that indicates a problem for the incumbent party. But at the end of the day, the real problem is Iraq. Unless we can fix that mess we will lose the presidency and even more of the House and Senate.
But a year and a half in politics is, as they say, a lifetime and we may yet see some intervening events like 9/11 which stands everything on its head and opens the gate for the Republicans to hold on. I do not think it will be enough merely to put the Democrats fingerprints on the war and blame them for a Vietnam like ending. This is the Republicans' war and how it goes will probably determine the next election. But how it goes will not be determined objectively but by a media determined to stop the war and destroy the Republican Party. Remember, the media has already convinced enough Americans before the last election that 3000 fatalities were too much to bear and that the war was lost.
In the face of this grim prospect, Fred Thompson is the only candidate who is acceptable to all parts of the Republican spectrum and who also has requisite personal gravitas to make incursions into independents and Reagan Democrats needed to hold the states mentioned above as well as the Southwest which is cracking as well, and even Florida.
This previous post is not quoted merely to show that I have long supported Thompson, but to emphasize that the Republican Party is desperately vulnerable and so far Fred Thompson has not shown the spark which can carry us free of the crushing burden of Iraq. Mulhern's prediction to the effect that Democrats will be nailed to the cross of Iraq is wildly optimistic and hardly the stuff upon which to risk the future of the party. Without going into long detail, the surge has so far shown only military fruit, the political situation if anything has deteriorated. Moreover, our ultimate vulnerability in Iraq-that our destiny is not in our own hands by in the hands of the Iraqis themselves-remains, unfortunately, true. Only a fool would that an American presidential election on the behavior of the Iraqis.
The issue with Fred Thompson is not so much whether he has the fire in his belly but whether he is the man, like Lincoln in 1860, Roosevelt in 1932, Reagan in 1980, who can by the force of his persona bring the American people to see a new way because the Times are no less dramatic than these other turning points in our history. Although I do not think Roosevelt was the right man in 1932, no one can dispute that he captured the imagination of the people. Can Fred Thompson do the same in the cause of conservatism and in the salvation of his country?
One thing is clear, if the Republican candidate does not capture the popular imagination on a once in a century scale, he will not get the opportunity to demonstrate what he can do for party and country.
