The nomination will not come down to Thompson and Romney. By trying to position himself as the conservative alternative, the whole raison d’etre of Romney’s candidacy began to unravel when Thompson emerged and finally collapsed (along with his poll numbers)when Fred entered the race. An energizer bunny does not win political campaigns. Otherwise, George H.W. Bush would surely have defeated Reagan for the 1980 nomination, being a much younger and (by all printed and reported accounts) a more energetic candidate. And Jimmy Carter, who was more familiar with the minutiae of government than Reagan and far more capable of detailed policy discussions, would have crushed the Gipper in the general. Neither happened. And the result will be the same for many of the same reasons. The race will boil down to Thompson (the conservative) and Guiliani (the liberal). It doesn’t take a Phi Beta Kappa key to discern who wins that contest in a Republican primary.
I think you set up a standard that no one could meet. You say that Thompson has not shown “the spark with which he can free us of the crushing burden of Iraq.” You also set an high mark that if Thompson does not demonstrate, in advance of taking office, a “persona” akin to Lincoln, Reagan, and FDR, the Republican party is destined to lose the 2008 election. My goodness, neither Lincoln, Reagan nor FDR could have cleared such a hurdle BEFORE taking office.
And, are Republican prospects really as dim as you suggest? I think not, and you have cited no historical evidence to suggest they are. Lincoln was reelected in the middle of a Civil War. Iraq is a brushfire in comparison. Roosevelt was re-elected by a huge landlslide in 1936, even though the Depression was no better than in 1932. Do you deny that, had Johnson run in 1968, he would have defeated Nixon, even though we were in the midst of a very unpopular, and much larger war?
And, contrary to your hypothesis, Iraq is not the only issue, perhaps less important than ever, all the major candidates having agreed that troops will be there until 2013 at least. The other issues of high taxation, government spending and secure borders are very important, as are judicial nominations, right to life and the 2nd Amendment. The Republican coalition has not disappeared; it is merely leaderless at this point. There is no great cry for 12 point plans or energizer bunnies to hold umpteen events per day, but for a return to the principles that won 44 states in 1980 and 49 in 1984. That coalition has been tattered by 20 years of Bush-Dole rule of the Republican party, but it can be reassembled. As I look about the horizon, the only candidate who can credibly reassemble it is Fred Thompson. After 20 years in the wilderness, the message has once again found a messenger.