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Dollar hits new euro low after tame inflation data
Marketwatch ^ | 9/28/2007 | Lisa Twaronite

Posted on 09/28/2007 2:32:19 PM PDT by oblomov

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar dropped across the board Friday, marking the seventh straight trading session in which it's sunk to a record low against the euro, after tame core inflation data suggested that the Federal Reserve has room to further cut interest rates. The euro was at $1.4270, after rising as high as $1.4277 earlier, well above $1.4147 in late U.S. trading Thursday. The dollar was buying 114.73 yen, down from 115.65 yen Thursday.

The dollar's drop accelerated after William Poole, the president of the St. Louis Fed, said in a speech that the central bank stands ready to cut rates again to keep the economy on a moderate growth track in the face of the financial market turmoil.

"My guess is that the inherent resilience of the U.S. economy along with future policy actions, should they be desirable, will keep the economy on a track of moderate average growth and gradually declining inflation over the next few years," Poole said in New York City.

Data released by the Commerce Department early Friday showed core consumer price inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, fell 0.1% in August, bringing core inflation over the past year down to 1.8%, the lowest since early 2004. See Economic Report.

"The greenback is under pressure across the board on Friday, as tamer core inflation data combine with U.S. slowdown concerns to weigh the unit down," wrote analysts at Action Economics.

The dollar has been in a tailspin against most of its major rivals since the Fed's surprisingly large, 50-basis point interest rate cut on Sept. 18, in a move aimed at preventing the subprime mortgage market meltdown from dragging down the broader economy.

(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dollar; euro
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Let me get this straight. The dollar is going down because tame inflation data, and the Euro is going up because inflation there is accelerating? The idea that the dollar is going down because of the possibility of another rate cut is silly- a rate cut is feared only because of its inflationary effect. There is something more to the story- namely, sentiment. Sentiment against the USD is so strong that it is producing a mispricing of the EUR-USD.
1 posted on 09/28/2007 2:32:21 PM PDT by oblomov
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To: oblomov

It has little to do with inflation, and more to do with trade flows. I’ve gotta believe that the EU ministers are sweating now, though. They may have a harder time selling things in the US.


2 posted on 09/28/2007 2:34:25 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Brilliant
"They may have a harder time selling things in the US."

We gotta get it from somebody since all we got to export is jobs and dollars.

3 posted on 09/28/2007 2:38:35 PM PDT by ex-snook ("But above all things, truth beareth away the victory.")
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To: oblomov

It’s not sentiment...it’s that the U.S. Dollar has been **VASTLY** overpriced since the end of WW2 in order to prop up the foreign economies collapsed by that war.

...at our expense.

Now the Dollar is gradually coming back down to reality. Still a ways to go, though (China, are you listening?!).


4 posted on 09/28/2007 2:41:48 PM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: oblomov

The sentiment is that the U.S. is going down the tubes. Its people do not save, over-consume, many are mired in risky loans in a crashing real estate market, and it has a government which spends like drunken sailors while throwing endless amounts at Iraq.


5 posted on 09/28/2007 2:45:47 PM PDT by montag813
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To: oblomov

Actually tame inflation here and increasing inflation in Europe would correlate precisely with a lower dollar and a higher Euro. The relationship is direct and not inverse between values of denomination and inflation.


6 posted on 09/28/2007 2:47:41 PM PDT by Camel Joe (liberal=socialist=royalist/imperialist pawn=enemy of Freedom)
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To: Camel Joe
Actually tame inflation here and increasing inflation in Europe would correlate precisely with a lower dollar and a higher Euro. The relationship is direct and not inverse between values of denomination and inflation.

That is incorrect. If $1 buys a big mac here today. It buys 1 Euro buys a big mac in europe. In 5 years if $1 still buys a big mac and and takes 2 euros to buy a big mac, the Euros value is now worth half of what the dollar is.

7 posted on 09/28/2007 2:56:19 PM PDT by rb22982
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To: Brilliant

Exactly. And with China pegging their currency to the Dollar - they have precious little choice considering the amount of Dollars they hold - the EU is facing incredible sales pressure from the US and China.

Figure that in the last 18 months, 60% of what the EU uses - which is the totals that come from the US and China - have increased by 30%. That is HUGE inflation in imports.

It’s only by their governments accelerating inflation and tossing billions into the kitty that they are still alive.

I think the devaluation of the Dollar - and, as a result, the Yuan - is completely purposeful and is aimed at breaking the Euro. Give it another 3-5 years at this exchange rate and it will break. Simply cannot keep up, given that EU exports are going to be way too pricey, and American and Chinese imports will finish off the last of their manufacturing AND service industries.

So countries will shed the Euro in hopes that their own currencies will stabilize a bit lower, to keep the last legs of their businesses still live so their own governments survive. It’s going to be an exodus from the Euro.


8 posted on 09/28/2007 3:00:16 PM PDT by PugetSoundSoldier (Tagline: Kinda like a chorus line but without the legs)
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To: PugetSoundSoldier

Buy low, sell high

Oh wait...


9 posted on 09/28/2007 3:02:56 PM PDT by - Smokestack Lightning (Antonio Gramsci and the Frankfurt School, may you burn in hell for all eternity..)
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To: oblomov

“after tame core inflation data suggested that the Federal Reserve has room to further cut interest rates.

“My guess is that the inherent resilience of the U.S. economy along with future policy actions, should they be desirable, will keep the economy on a track of moderate average growth and gradually declining inflation over the next few years,”

Well that is very good news. I hope he’s right. I’d like to see the US expand it’s manufacturing sector. And a cheap dollar sure helps.


10 posted on 09/28/2007 3:22:50 PM PDT by live+let_live
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To: Camel Joe; rb22982

No, that can’t be the case, at least if the purchasing power parity model of currency valuation holds.

Regardless of whether this is the case, either lower interest rates are bad for the dollar, or lower inflation is bad for the dollar, but both can’t be true as the article suggests.


11 posted on 09/28/2007 3:40:51 PM PDT by oblomov
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To: oblomov

I personally think someone with a lot of money is manipulating the $. There simply is no reason for the US Dollar to be worth 40% less than it was 4-5 years ago. Our debt as a % of GDP has gone down, our growth is stronger than Europes, our unemployment rate is lower, and our inflation is tamer. It simply doesn’t make sense. If it stays this low though, it should be a huge boon to our manufacturing sector and exports in general.


12 posted on 09/28/2007 3:57:13 PM PDT by rb22982
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To: montag813

It sounds lie pre-revolutionary France.


13 posted on 09/28/2007 4:00:36 PM PDT by Niuhuru (businesslinkshere.com)
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To: oblomov

If lower inflation is bad for a currency then Zimbabwean & Venezuealn curencies should be strong.

Seriously, the job of most financial reporting is to project optimism.


14 posted on 09/28/2007 4:00:46 PM PDT by preacher (A government which robs from Peter to pay Paul will always have the support of Paul.)
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To: ex-snook
We gotta get it from somebody since all we got to export is jobs and dollars.

[U.S. Census Bureau - Click for Census Home Page]

FOREIGN TRADE STATISTICS: Your Key to Trade [Skip all navigation and go directly to page content]
[Go to the FTD MAIN page.]
[FTD Main Navigation] MAIN: A.E.S. | Reference | Regulations | Statistics | Feedback | Search
[FTD Subject Navigation] STATISTICS: Press Releases | Trade Highlights | Country/Product Data | State Export Data | Historical Series | Special Request
[ADVERT: USATrade Online - Trade data online]

U.S. Exports to World (Total)
from 2002 to 2006
By 5-digit End-Use Code

(In thousands of dollars)

Additional information

End-Use Code Value 2002 Value 2003 Value 2004 Value 2005 Value 2006
(00000) Wheat 3,771,920 4,002,455 5,191,779 4,416,027 4,277,103
(00010) Rice 832,936 1,077,760 1,223,738 1,337,714 1,355,253
(00100) Soybeans 5,806,179 8,047,048 6,894,715 6,626,555 7,275,892
(00110) Oilseeds, food oils 1,317,380 1,419,363 1,273,706 1,190,935 1,317,680
(00200) Corn 5,784,028 5,750,589 6,926,461 5,824,420 8,269,286
(00210) Sorghum, barley, oats 674,758 677,489 611,091 628,355 685,877
(00220) Animal feeds, n.e.c. 3,298,763 3,297,751 3,115,922 3,387,722 3,804,049
(00300) Meat, poultry, etc. 7,002,732 7,873,236 5,671,895 7,206,280 7,862,701
(00310) Dairy products and eggs 714,816 744,458 1,167,111 1,299,418 1,491,898
(00320) Fruits, frozen juices 4,038,150 4,295,114 4,533,462 4,996,914 5,561,085
(00330) Vegetables 2,900,539 2,965,801 3,189,490 3,509,842 3,846,197
(00340) Nuts 1,657,332 1,891,211 2,365,554 3,043,642 3,227,156
(00350) Bakery products 2,020,889 2,255,755 2,467,241 2,696,155 3,003,394
(00360) Other foods 4,482,548 4,906,768 5,340,365 5,872,533 6,584,793
(00370) Wine and related products 726,766 817,565 984,623 912,592 1,093,913
(01000) Fish and shellfish 3,197,235 3,363,283 3,823,237 4,207,720 4,350,247
(01010) Alcoholic beverages, excluding wine 627,135 681,029 777,286 821,174 958,040
(01020) Nonagricultural foods, etc. 761,472 959,336 1,011,988 977,358 1,044,079
(10000) Cotton, raw 2,066,878 3,388,982 4,279,556 3,933,122 4,514,984
(10100) Tobacco, unmanufactured 1,058,963 1,025,809 1,041,246 983,722 1,133,905
(10120) Hides and skins 1,751,470 1,793,603 1,757,782 1,787,883 2,054,917
(10130) Agric. industry-unmanufactured 1,173,376 1,255,510 1,468,907 1,401,808 1,575,829
(10140) Agric. farming-unmanufactured 1,544,415 1,731,381 1,610,260 1,833,043 1,849,933
(10150) Agriculture-manufactured, other 1,617,726 1,377,403 1,510,523 1,651,371 1,734,142
(11010) Metallurgical grade coal 1,024,080 1,014,289 1,760,238 2,385,524 2,559,063
(11020) Coal and fuels, other 898,318 788,371 1,206,042 1,329,221 1,331,295
(11100) Crude oil 87,556 128,282 308,194 551,652 567,008
(11110) Fuel oil 2,583,998 3,117,433 4,353,770 6,932,607 12,070,290
(11120) Petroleum products, other 6,978,589 8,633,021 11,583,088 14,104,621 17,347,478
(11130) Natural gas liquids 687,884 814,265 836,838 1,075,494 1,625,140
(11200) Gas-natural 995,442 1,399,765 2,125,663 3,109,833 2,243,303
(11300) Nuclear fuel materials 1,510,512 1,570,651 1,631,283 1,619,190 1,827,438
(11400) Electric energy 303,047 755,696 828,855 1,046,509 1,051,985
(12000) Steelmaking materials 1,863,503 2,607,012 4,014,104 5,991,623 6,838,801
(12100) Iron and steel mill products 3,219,083 4,176,506 5,208,393 6,917,987 7,283,742
(12110) Iron and steel products, other 2,768,597 2,905,047 3,636,622 4,351,229 5,155,405
(12200) Aluminum and alumina 2,947,824 3,032,119 3,992,337 5,191,121 7,292,147
(12210) Copper 1,112,520 1,510,815 2,002,919 2,356,484 4,699,934
(12260) Nonmonetary gold 3,356,634 4,790,354 4,449,217 5,548,806 8,755,920
(12270) Precious metals, other 2,560,780 2,144,607 2,758,099 3,175,711 7,041,621
(12290) Nonferrous metals, other 2,148,428 2,464,242 3,053,412 4,523,315 6,609,065
(12300) Finished metal shapes 8,728,448 8,948,222 9,964,894 11,405,809 13,932,951
(12420) Pulpwood and woodpulp 4,051,462 4,259,100 4,696,567 5,272,294 5,903,241
(12430) Newsprint 8,160,275 8,554,129 9,274,785 9,862,581 10,556,635
(12500) Plastic materials 14,104,243 15,407,108 21,656,550 24,793,298 27,873,376
(12510) Chemicals-fertilizers 3,924,528 4,105,064 4,744,018 5,197,329 5,280,861
(12530) Chemicals-inorganic 3,929,179 3,930,315 4,423,922 5,880,332 6,663,746
(12540) Chemicals-organic 14,631,857 17,633,336 22,187,353 23,377,062 26,971,487
(12550) Chemicals-other 13,238,295 14,443,025 15,609,108 16,721,139 18,521,381
(12600) Cotton fiber cloth 2,728,651 2,788,335 3,264,766 3,232,897 3,132,042
(12620) Manmade cloth 4,894,813 5,048,515 5,550,833 5,686,350 5,765,167
(12630) Hair, waste materials 429,684 447,027 493,439 483,543 552,150
(12640) Finished textile supplies 2,248,350 2,196,564 2,321,442 2,377,417 2,541,374
(12650) Leather and furs 840,316 866,753 1,193,579 1,095,540 1,051,998
(12700) Synthetic rubber-primary 1,675,484 1,852,549 2,218,021 2,694,877 3,185,546
(12720) Nonmetallic minerals 416,415 427,349 488,635 488,854 605,994
(12750) Industrial rubber products 2,190,650 2,199,254 2,452,514 2,585,845 2,923,854
(12760) Mineral supplies-manufactured 3,093,482 3,307,186 3,670,944 3,751,497 4,502,639
(12765) Tapes, audio and visual 1,203,833 1,346,509 1,620,300 2,014,146 1,795,704
(12770) Other industrial supplies 14,477,266 15,049,554 13,757,853 14,793,038 16,363,223
(13100) Logs and lumber 3,568,646 3,675,962 4,213,673 4,332,968 4,593,107
(13110) Wood supplies, manufactured 875,807 911,252 1,028,197 1,074,196 1,220,776
(13200) Glass-plate, sheet, etc. 977,598 979,685 1,088,950 1,141,029 1,278,636
(13210) Shingles, molding, wallboard 1,891,071 1,961,770 2,284,145 2,637,272 3,016,416
(13220) Nontextile floor tiles 297,270 300,613 337,797 377,329 414,304
(20000) Generators, accessories 6,171,391 6,286,538 7,028,809 7,613,908 9,464,756
(20005) Electric apparatus 21,373,353 21,158,082 24,231,365 25,674,197 29,748,335
(21000) Drilling & oilfield equipment 6,562,205 6,066,973 6,869,681 8,153,668 10,778,601
(21010) Specialized mining 384,423 419,075 544,473 634,938 838,010
(21030) Excavating machinery 4,986,166 5,284,702 6,657,603 8,812,827 9,866,450
(21040) Nonfarm tractors and parts 960,239 1,063,017 1,439,904 1,382,445 1,858,428
(21100) Industrial engines 11,601,418 11,690,670 13,511,204 14,934,258 15,953,605
(21110) Food, tobacco machinery 1,732,148 1,688,991 1,860,182 2,064,865 2,192,826
(21120) Metalworking machine tools 5,174,725 5,252,726 7,075,695 7,663,288 9,490,359
(21130) Textile, sewing machines 1,059,214 1,020,197 1,134,193 1,247,851 1,274,629
(21140) Wood, glass, plastic 2,597,190 2,503,246 3,367,352 3,645,557 3,628,566
(21150) Pulp and paper machinery 2,278,780 2,372,552 2,566,827 2,718,324 2,850,457
(21160) Measuring, testing, control instruments 13,218,013 13,936,101 16,927,323 16,720,633 19,119,448
(21170) Materials handling equipment 4,488,470 4,655,814 5,984,009 8,162,312 9,903,852
(21180) Industrial machines, other 21,727,003 21,718,029 26,971,265 28,295,944 32,709,273
(21190) Photo, service industry machinery 5,422,145 5,714,167 6,553,936 7,492,107 8,178,549
(21200) Agricultural machinery, equipment 3,526,203 3,793,910 4,422,448 5,144,124 5,308,940
(21300) Computers 9,190,115 8,664,470 9,198,120 10,206,187 11,444,607
(21301) Computer accessories 29,362,295 31,260,248 33,607,204 35,330,167 36,087,221
(21320) Semiconductors 42,234,579 46,137,440 48,050,388 47,221,556 52,383,482
(21400) Telecommunications equipment 22,207,691 20,743,162 24,543,091 25,666,771 28,911,061
(21500) Business machines and equipment 2,023,646 1,927,170 2,110,291 2,335,954 2,704,205
(21600) Laboratory testing instruments 4,824,079 5,118,842 6,093,197 6,665,275 7,279,594
(21610) Medicinal equipment 14,481,033 15,742,536 17,852,664 20,364,358 22,664,867
(22000) Civilian aircraft 26,676,656 23,305,357 22,917,114 29,332,618 40,714,914
(22010) Parts-civilian aircraft 12,222,736 12,134,464 13,217,079 15,305,904 17,373,828
(22020) Engines-civilian aircraft 11,584,658 11,338,959 13,840,691 16,145,914 16,947,535
(22100) Railway transportation equipment 1,245,275 1,641,902 1,856,082 2,345,207 2,938,227
(22200) Vessels, excluding scrap 204,471 67,122 40,953 64,957 51,701
(22210) Commercial vessels, other 179,292 138,968 207,814 230,358 222,269
(22220) Marine engines, parts 758,992 793,606 740,348 976,964 1,127,802
(22300) Spacecraft, excluding military 36,932 37,138 53,632 37,955 26,894
(30000) Passenger cars, new and used 20,552,414 22,102,841 24,609,325 30,492,691 34,530,937
(30100) Trucks, buses and special purpose vehicles 8,363,362 10,244,379 11,928,396 13,477,345 15,090,202
(30200) Engines and engine parts (carburetors, pistons, ri 10,112,579 10,112,654 10,754,788 11,324,368 11,924,358
(30210) Bodies and chassis for passenger cars 138,831 185,673 148,197 58,449 58,962
(30220) Automotive tires and tubes 1,909,086 1,819,338 2,124,051 2,403,281 2,479,500
(30230) Other parts and accessories of vehicles 37,866,139 36,220,655 39,727,480 40,916,620 43,088,027
(40000) Apparel, household goods - textile 6,305,462 5,935,708 5,389,846 5,311,955 5,183,748
(40030) Apparel,household goods-nontextile 1,307,645 1,349,863 1,433,964 1,672,191 1,835,403
(40050) Sports apparel and gear 445,492 421,225 436,046 485,324 588,006
(40100) Pharmaceutical preparations 17,347,840 20,529,484 25,431,506 27,618,757 30,789,492
(40110) Books, printed matter 3,969,325 4,175,252 4,397,917 4,820,801 5,192,672
(40120) Toiletries and cosmetics 4,139,641 4,580,874 5,260,323 5,975,099 6,754,315
(40130) Tobacco, manufactured 1,962,035 1,881,706 1,599,295 1,340,630 1,362,642
(40140) Writing and art supplies 4,609,284 4,695,044 5,062,591 5,623,401 5,827,807
(41000) Furniture, household goods, etc. 2,122,958 2,415,749 2,723,936 2,885,663 3,204,067
(41010) Glassware, chinaware 450,822 348,977 393,530 405,241 432,492
(41020) Cookware, cutlery, tools 695,857 687,921 733,034 771,945 869,659
(41030) Household appliances 4,536,883 4,830,195 5,224,404 6,050,859 6,650,584
(41040) Rugs 693,290 693,005 789,475 906,070 1,003,387
(41050) Other household goods 8,444,489 9,389,945 10,754,075 12,428,236 14,073,095
(41110) Pleasure boats and motors 1,086,943 1,368,396 1,911,421 2,480,770 2,778,543
(41120) Toys/games/sporting goods 5,459,446 5,692,490 6,316,574 7,564,206 9,027,618
(41140) Musical instruments 1,032,717 862,781 1,056,377 1,058,999 1,067,154
(41200) TV's, VCR's, etc. 3,955,119 3,382,301 3,602,070 3,639,449 3,872,073
(41210) Stereo equipment, etc. 1,541,870 1,560,706 1,712,822 2,213,713 2,461,393
(41220) Records, tapes, and disks 3,221,800 3,191,920 3,386,401 3,640,005 3,642,747
(41300) Numismatic coins 56,008 63,051 54,118 67,805 154,448
(41310) Jewelry, etc 2,968,325 3,049,472 3,867,696 4,727,493 6,143,415
(41320) Artwork, antiques, stamps, etc. 2,901,776 3,036,051 3,877,752 4,778,136 5,953,003
(42000) Nursery stock, etc. 269,747 289,308 313,536 341,782 387,790
(42100) Gem diamonds 4,834,043 5,476,603 7,346,005 8,906,873 9,987,222
(50000) Military aircraft, complete 1,672,201 2,159,009 2,360,999 2,417,217 4,464,598
(50010) Aircraft launching gear, parachutes, etc. 89,950 116,027 214,592 305,808 344,791
(50020) Engines and turbines for military aircraft 1,836,533 1,320,834 1,260,987 1,566,406 1,643,565
(50030) Military trucks, armored vehicles, etc. 722,039 635,004 745,331 920,345 844,889
(50040) Military ships and boats 2,060 1,000 0 0 5,170
(50050) Tanks, artillery, missiles, rockets, guns and ammu 1,929,437 1,615,936 2,067,159 2,037,040 2,714,343
(50060) Military apparel and footwear 812,385 844,928 506,395 668,594 693,123
(50070) Parts for military-type goods 4,639,359 4,816,374 4,728,834 4,919,362 5,918,013
(60000) Minimum value shipments 14,635,601 15,043,576 16,781,625 18,800,866 19,745,847
(60010) Miscellaneous domestic exports and special transac 6,514,038 5,858,199 5,737,754 5,328,568 5,241,316
(60040) Undocumented exports to Canada 0 0 0 0 3,250,666
TOTAL 693,103,192 724,770,983 818,774,859 905,977,633 1,037,142,973

LOL!


15 posted on 09/28/2007 4:15:35 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Ignorance of the laws of economics is no excuse.)
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To: Toddsterpatriot

Quick the sky is falling! LOL. Nice #s


16 posted on 09/28/2007 4:22:43 PM PDT by rb22982
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To: rb22982

Over $1 trillion in exports last year. Not bad considering we don’t make anything here anymore.


17 posted on 09/28/2007 4:57:22 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Ignorance of the laws of economics is no excuse.)
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To: Toddsterpatriot

That’s a 49% increase in 4 years. That’s pretty darn impressive for exports. I expect this year should be solid as well. If oil wasn’t so high, we might even be close to running a trade surplus.


18 posted on 09/28/2007 5:09:40 PM PDT by rb22982
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To: Toddsterpatriot

None of the links work.


19 posted on 09/28/2007 10:16:49 PM PDT by texastoo ((((((USA)))))((((((, USA))))))((((((. USA))))))))
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To: Toddsterpatriot; ex-snook
We gotta get it from somebody since all we got to export is jobs and dollars.

Over $1 trillion in exports last year. Not bad considering we don’t make anything here anymore.

I agree that we obviously do still make things for export and that exports have had increased significantly in nominal terms over the past four years. However, it's worth looking at exports and imports as a percent of GDP as shown in the following graph:

The actual numbers and sources are at http://home.att.net/~rdavis2/tradeall.html. As can be seen, as a percent of GDP, exports are still below their 1997 high. Imports, on the other hand, have increased significantly over that period. As a result, so has the trade deficit.

20 posted on 09/30/2007 12:51:59 AM PDT by remember
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