Not really. Under my scenario no one has to be "hiding the lie" except maybe a couple of Osama's closest confidantes and boy-toys. It may simply be that very very few people actually know the truth. I don't guess that anyone in our government knows the truth for sure either way, for example. So just to be clear, my theory doesn't involve them "hiding" anything.
When your CinC, SecDef, CIA and numerous other SOF Commanders "go on record" telling you they believe someone to be alive (not dead).....You should read between the lines....(Just because you don't have "clearance" doesn't mean said Intel doesn't exist). I'll leave it there.
That's a good point. And indeed, I believe that they believe OBL is alive.
It's just that I don't believe OBL is alive (absent some real evidence).
And by the way, the razor "if XYZ are saying it, since they see classified stuff, that makes it more likely to be true, so I should go with what they're saying even if I doubt it" didn't exactly work out well when it came to the Iraq/WMD question.
First off Scheuer is exactly right here - Most American's (most people around the world) have no clue to how brutal the terrain is within the Pak/Stan border regions -
I agree that the terrain in these regions is difficult (from everything I've heard), and it's probably also true that relatively few Americans actually know that. I just wasn't sure what relevance that has however to the question of OBL's fate/whereabouts.
.One can know to a great certainty that someone is alive..and within a given "zone"...while at the same time not knowing exactly where they are at a given moment within said zone. These are two two completely viable but separate realities...
I recall this to be your position, yes. And I don't dispute it. Of course it's possible to know someone is alive and in region X without having more detailed information regarding where in region X that person is.
I see no reason to believe that this is such a case, however. The government (or pundits anyway) have been insisting that OBL is pinned down to the "border region" for six years now. Why? Two possibilities:
1. they get an ongoing, more or less regular stream of intel which is high-probability proof that OBL is in the region. (Which makes it difficult to understand why they haven't caught him)
2. they don't get an ongoing stream. They got maybe good intel in, like, 2003-2004. And they therefore assume he's still alive, and still there, because... well, I don't understand why.
Again, if OBL really is alive, there's no law of physics which prohibits him from altering his location and EVEN from exiting BOTH Pakistan and Afghanistan. I'm always amazed and how many people (people who profess to believe OBL is a living human being) seem to never even contemplate the metaphysical possibility that OBL could be somewhere other than Afghanistan and/or Pakistan. Human beings are not landmarks. They can move! Best,
We had Intel up our as$es regarding Zarqawi in Iraq - We had over 140,000+! U.S. boots on the ground and support over the majority of the citizens.....Yet, it took us over 3+ years to put Zarqawi in the ground -
In Stan we have less than 15,000 true combat soldiers at any given time (and even a much lower number that can work effectively within these border regions for any extended time) - We also have support of less than 10% of the population (and that is being generous to our side).
Sure one can move - But it would be foolish for one to move from there area in which he is most likely to remain alive - (UBL has never put himself in position to be used as a pawn by some Cent Gov't - Those who think Iran or Yemen are simply off).
Again, there are a great number of HVT we have been after since 01 - (we've killed apprx half dozen of these Taliban HVTs in the past 8 months alone...after chasing them for 5 years....Did they not exist?). Reality is, in the short term all the intangibles favored AQ/Taliban HVTs to remain with our OODA loop (especially when one understands risk adverse HQs and JAGs into the equation).