We had Intel up our as$es regarding Zarqawi in Iraq - We had over 140,000+! U.S. boots on the ground and support over the majority of the citizens.....Yet, it took us over 3+ years to put Zarqawi in the ground -
In Stan we have less than 15,000 true combat soldiers at any given time (and even a much lower number that can work effectively within these border regions for any extended time) - We also have support of less than 10% of the population (and that is being generous to our side).
So, I guess what you're saying is that you think we do, indeed, get a steady stream of intel putting OBL in the "border region", and there's no contradiction. That could be true. I don't know, because if it is, it's obviously not spread in the media. But I see little reason to believe that it is true. The case that it is true - and this is basically the case Scheuer makes - is to say that the government wouldn't be acting so sure that OBL is there, if it weren't true.
But I'm less than overwhelmed by that argument. Government is a huge bureaucracy, it does many things on inertia and with no regard for rationality. The fact that OBL is hiding in the "border region" seems to have become a Permanent Institutional Truth. It's something everyone just knows. (Like the fact that Iraq had WMD stockpiles.)
But most of the people who know this thing, seem to have no good reasons for doing so. best