Posted on 09/22/2007 3:23:15 AM PDT by Clive
Following the Liberal party's squalid performance in the Quebec by-elections this past week, presumptive successors must be asking themselves the same question: Is it time to dump the boss yet?
Canadian politics is rich with examples of bitter power struggles, whether it is John Turner cooling his heels on Bay Street until Pierre Trudeau wears out his welcome, or Brian Mulroney signing a disposable non-aggression pact with rival Joe Clark. But even the best et tu, Brute strategy faces an age-old quandary: how to plot without getting caught? If the dauphin organizes too early or too obviously, he may damage, offend would-be supporters or earn a reputation for disloyalty. Plot too late and ... it could be too late. Money and supporters may have moved elsewhere.
"You have to be careful not to be seen destroying the party," said University of Toronto political scientist Stephen Clarkson. "You need a show of unity, but also the leader must be seen as ineffectual."
There are signs that Liberal leader Stephane Dion is already in the crosshairs. A news report last weekend said unnamed Dion supporters blamed deputy leader Michael Ignatieff's team of "sabotaging" Liberal efforts in the Montreal riding of Outremont, where voters rejected Jocelyn Coulon in a colossal way last Monday in favour of the NDP candidate, Thomas Mulcair.
The allegation prompted a counterstrike from Jean Lapierre, who previously held the seat for the Liberals. He told CTV the accusation must have been planted by Dion's team. The accusations must have concerned Mr. Ignatieff, who called Mr. Dion to deny any involvement.
While Mr. Ignatieff is viewed as the most likely usurper, there are others who still qualify. Bob Rae, the former Ontario premier and leadership candidate, has the formidable Chretien apparatus behind him. Every show of inexperience or questionable judgment by Mr. Dion makes Mr. Rae's experience and polish shine brighter.
Or darkhorse candidate Gerard Kennedy, who has failed twice in leadership bids but bears the attributes of youth and plenty of time to make allies and soulmates among the rank and file. He is the one right now with the most to gain.
Mr. Dion brought the whispers on himself with his shaky performance over the past 10 months. In Monday's by-elections, Quebecers resoundingly rejected the party in three ridings. Complaints quickly followed: that Mr. Dion took too long to pick an ineffective candidate, ignored advice from local organizers, and allowed less knowledgeable operatives from his leadership office to meddle too much.
Critics suggest Prime Minister Stephen Harper has outmanoeuvred him on major issues; that Mr. Dion has shown a distinct inability to affect the national conversation and exhibited stunning tone-deafness to his native Quebec -- without which his political fortunes amount to nil.
While many former leaders -- including Jean Chretien and Mr. Harper, who was written off as a lost cause just months before becoming Prime Minister -- struggled in the role of opposition leader, Mr. Dion remains vulnerable.
The former professor lacks a strong personal support base within the party or even the caucus. He won the leadership as a compromise choice when front-runner Mr. Ignatieff failed to close the deal. Mr. Dion was backed by just a handful of MPs and few party officials or big-name Cabinet figures, who overwhelmingly backed Mr. Ignatieff.
Since his defeat, Mr. Ignatieff has often outshone Mr. Dion in Question Period. And Monday's by-election underlined his lack of support in Quebec, which sees Mr. Dion as a doddering Denys Arcand-type character lost in a '70s flashback: an iron-grip federalist who refuses to accept that the province has matured since the early days of separatism.
In a startling mea culpa this week, Mr. Dion conceded as much, confessing he's an unpopular figure in his home province who needs to demonstrate he's not a taciturn, cerebral intellectual who is hostile to its nationalist ambitions.
But his problems go beyond Quebec.
Even some supporters say Mr. Dion's much-celebrated Green platform barely took root and withered on the vine. His call to pull Canadian troops out of the perilous Afghan province of Kandahar in 2009 appeals to opponents of the war but has failed to budge opinion polls. Meanwhile it has been attacked by government supporters as irresponsible to the troops because it turns their mission into a lame-duck misadventure for the next year and a half.
But Mr. Dion has some formidable defences as well. Party leaders are almost always allowed the opportunity to fight a general election before the final verdict on their future is made. But it won't be easy.
"It's a big deal not to have the organization on side," said Prof. Clarkson. "If all the Lapierres are lining up against you, you're in trouble."
Still, it would be technically difficult for the party to depose him this soon after choosing him.
"They'd have to have a ballot on leadership, and right now, there's no constitutional way in the party for him to be expelled," says Prof. Clarkson. "He'd have to lose an election first, the party would have a convention, where the membership would vote on whether or not the leadership should be reviewed."
The other option, Prof. Clarkson says, is that they'd need to make a moral issue of his leadership: something along the lines that he was giving Canada a bad name. The possibility, he says, seems remote.
Unlike his potential rivals, he doesn't owe many political debts because he didn't have a lot of party machine behind him. More important, he doesn't have the same financial debts. His would-be successors remain cash-strapped -- and battle-fatigued -- from a contest that ended just 10 months ago.
"I don't think anyone is up to another nomination, especially if an election is called in the interim," said an influential insider. "It's too much."
While Mr. Dion tries to transform his persona from an aloof thinker to a thinking man of action, his rivals may have no choice but to tip-toe into position for the next contest.
In what might turn out to be a quiet, two-year battle of attrition, the first rule for any shrewd contender is to mute criticism of the leader. Infighting seeps out into the public, harming the party and potentially damaging the image of the rebel faction. This might explain why Mr. Ignatieff was so quick to call his boss last weekend.
Open appearances of rebellion can backfire with searing effect. When a cabal of Paul Martin supporters were caught at a hotel near Toronto's Pearson airport in 2001 after Mr. Martin was ejected from the Cabinet, his boss, Mr. Chrétien, was livid, and wound up serving some delicious revenge. He called an early election, and his government won a third consecutive majority, leaving Mr. Martin gnashing his teeth for that much longer.
Liberal leader Stephane Dion (L) receives a standing ovation from deputy leader Michael Ignatieff while standing to speak in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa Jan. 29, 2007.Avove this picture in the National Post print edition front page is this banner headline:
"ET TU MICHAEL"
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Quaere
Why? He’s doing such a great job.
Buahahahahahahah!
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