Posted on 09/15/2007 11:08:43 AM PDT by Fred
CONCORD – Former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen's decision to run for the U.S. Senate makes Republican incumbent John E. Sununu an underdog rather than the favorite for re-election in 2008, political analysts said Friday.
Sununu's support for an unpopular war in Iraq, Shaheen's likeability and windfall victories for Democrats in the 2006 election install him as perhaps the most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the nation, they said.
In 2002, then-Congressman Sununu beat Shaheen by 5 percentage points. Shaheen led Sununu in the most recent polls by more than 20 points.
"I always felt Shaheen back then did the best she could under the circumstances, but the political wind was in her face,'' said Dante Scala, associate professor of politics at the University of New Hampshire.
"A lot can change in the next year, but right now with this rematch, with Sununu looming, the wind clearly is at her back.''
Shaheen, 60, said the "urgent need'' for change prompted her to say she would run, a move coming a few weeks before a decision was expected.
"I've stepped down from my position at the Kennedy School of Government because we have major problems facing this country, and there is an urgent need for real change in Washington," Shaheen said in a statement.
"We've proven in New Hampshire that we can work together to get things done. I want to take that common-sense approach to Washington and help get this country moving in the right direction."
Shaheen was director of the Kennedy School's Institute of Politics for the past two years.
She scheduled a news conference at her Madbury home Sunday afternoon to discuss why she's running and declined to return telephone calls from reporters seeking comment.
Sununu, 43, said he was looking forward to next year's campaign as much as he was before Shaheen confirmed she would seek the Democratic nomination.
"All my stands are consistent with the people of New Hampshire," Sununu told reporters before giving an award at a Southern New Hampshire Services lunch at The Radisson Nashua.
"I've stepped up and used my voice to make a difference."
Sununu refused to mention Shaheen by name as he listed his accomplishments on the environment, health care and other issues during his first term.
And Sununu insisted he's been a frequent critic of how the Bush administration carried out the Iraq war and embraced the recommendations of a bipartisan study group that called for more aggressive diplomacy with Arab nations.
"I've said that (Iraq) can't be an open-ended commitment," Sununu said. "I've been with the Iraq Study Group. I've had disagreements with the (Bush) administration."
Unlike a few moderate Senate Republicans, Sununu has voted repeatedly against setting a withdrawal date for all combat troops from Iraq.
Former Democratic Party Chairman Kathy Sullivan said by next year, voters will see that Sununu failed to hold Bush accountable on Iraq and other issues.
"You dance with the one who brought you. If he turns on Bush now, it will be pretty obvious it is not reasons of ideology or policy, but that he's doing it because he's afraid he's going to lose," Sullivan said.
"People in New Hampshire are smart. They can and will spot those things."
Shaheen will face a primary challenge from Dartmouth medical professor and ex-astronaut Jay Buckey of Hanover, who said he still intends to run.
"We didn't get into this, considering who else was going to be in the race," said Buckey who's never run for elective office.
"It's good for people to have a choice. Let's let them have a choice. Let's do it."
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center said a primary could be trouble for Shaheen.
Any Democratic opponent could tap into the frustration liberals in the party that their own leaders in Congress have failed to stop the war in Iraq or make progress on domestic issues like education and health care.
"She can't run as a real, liberal Democrat if she wants to win this seat, but at the same time, if it looks like she is running away from that wing, it could prompt those voters to look at a Jay Buckey or whoever is in the race as their outlet," Smith said.
Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand said he'll make an announcement today on whether he's staying in the race. Most political observers expect he will withdraw as he said back in January he would if Shaheen decided to go ahead.
"I've played telephone tag with a lot of people and it's only fair I have those discussions before I make a formal statement of my intentions and my reasons behind them,'' Marchand said.
Katrina Swett issued a statement praising Shaheen, but did not declare whether she'll drop out.
Swett had said she didn't believe Shaheen was going to run, and raised an impressive $1.2 million for her own bid.
During Shaheen's last bid in 2002, President George Bush was popular in the wake of U.S. attacks against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan who had aided the terrorists who turned hijacked planes into killing machines on Sept. 11, 2001.
Meanwhile, Mark Fernald, the Democratic nominee to replace Sheehan as governor, got badly beaten with the platform for an income tax and proved to be a drag on the ticket.
Over the past five years, the Democrats have won back the governor's office, seized control of the entire Legislature for the first time in more than a century and taken the state's two House congressional seats from GOP incumbents.
"A week ago, before Shaheen was in, the seat was seen as a lean Republican given Sununu's strong profile in Washington. This certainly moves it to the lean Democratic side of the ledger," Smith said.
"But it's still so early to say what the dynamic of the campaign will be. We can assume the war in Iraq will be a decisive issue, but who can say with any certainty what that country will look like by then?"
Sullivan started a Draft Shaheen campaign last May that attracted more than 1,200 names on a small $12,000 budget.
Republican State Chairman Fergus Cullen said the GOP would remind voters of their view that Shaheen was a "weak and ineffective" governor who supported a sales tax and failed to resolve education funding.
"As governor, Jeanne Shaheen was long on blue ribbon commissions and short on solutions. These were some of the reasons Shaheen was defeated for U.S. Senate last time, and they continue to be strikes against her," Cullen said.
Sullivan said Shaheen is proud of her achievements as governor, but this election will be much more of a voter referendum on whether Sununu's record deserves another six years.
"If Republicans want to run against her moderate record as governor, it shows how adrift their leaders are," Sullivan said.
"John Sununu has done nothing to hold President Bush accountable, and I believe ultimately voters will decide he just didn't do his job."
Regarding his independence, Sununu noted he was one of the first Senate Republicans to call for the resignation of Attorney General Albert Gonzales and blocked passage of the Patriot Act until it contained more protections for American citizens suspected of aiding terrorists.
"I can tell you what I've done," Sununu added. "I can tell you what I've said and what I think are important priorities."
One of the problems with America is that too many males in this country are looking for a “mommy figure.”
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Where are the men in this country. We are going to get what we deserve
It’s trending that way because the Moonbats from Mass. are moving there and speading their liberal crap !!
Katrina Swett is the daughter of the dishonorable Rep Tom Lantos of California. Dick Swett, husband of Katrina, is a former US Rep NH (D). During Dick's political campaign he received the endorsement of none other than Mitt Romney.
The Nashua Telegraph is an uberliberal pravda type ragg. Expect to see many more stories like this from them and the Concord Monitor. The truth is most people are very unhappy with the tax and spend demonrats controlling the governorship, the legislature and 2 of our house seats. Expect to see Shea-Porter (d) unseated soundly by a resurgent Jeb Bradley (R). Paul Hodes (d) was out pumping gas a couple of months ago, which is not the sign of someone very secure in his seat. Ted Stevens (R) has a great chance to knock him off, if we can keep the illegal voting (student non-residents illegally voting in Keene, Lebanon, Durham/Dover, Plymouth and Concord) to a minimum.
NH is still a very conservative state.
The people from MA are NOT the problem. They typically live in Rockingham and Hillsborough counties which in 2004 were very solidly for Bush. The problem is the illegal student voting, Kerry’s 2004 margin of victory came from 3 towns - Keene, Dover and Lebanon (all places with large student populations). What we really need is more law and order at the polling place.
Losing Sununu isn’t a bad thing.
Sununu was one of the most vocal critics of the surge.
Do you mean an MILF?
Wonder if Mitt will endorse Sheehan this this....
THIS TIME!!!
Sheehan, a democrat, is Mitt's kind of republican.
Sununu in 2007: "................"
If Senator Sununu would follow his own advice from five years ago instead of his ego, this seat wouldn't be "in play" The NH GOP is to blame by deciding to fill all their federal offices with pampered politicians kids who's may qualfication is "my daddy had the job".
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