I thought she was British..didn't know she could be President....
Posted on 09/10/2007 7:56:47 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Former Senator Fred Thompson first announced that he might be available for the Republican Presidential nomination nearly six months ago. Since then, he has done well in the polls, missed a few possible dates to formally enter the campaign, skipped several Republican Presidential “debates”, and inevitably faced questions as to whether he waited too long to enter the race. Last week, he finally made it official and had the stage to himself while other candidates scrambled for attention in yet another candidate “debate.”
The early returns are encouraging for Thompson and his team. Despite the fact that his intentions have been far from secret for a very long time, the actor and politician is enjoying a nice bounce in the polls since making his announcement. He now leads in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for the first time since July.
Thompson’s gains since announcing have come primarily among conservatives likely to vote in a Republican Primary. In polling completed since his announcement, Thompson leads Giuliani by 12-points among conservative primary voters. That’s up from a five-point edge before the announcement. Conservatives account for more than 60% of GOP primary voters. Two-thirds of Republican voters view Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal.
In addition to Thompson’s announcement, Giuliani may have lost some ground by proclaiming on CNN that illegal immigration is not a crime. That view is especially difficult in a Republican primary environment, but voters nationwide continue to have strong feelings on the need to improve border security and reduce illegal immigration.
At one level, Thompson’s bounce highlights the fact that much of what passed for a campaign during the summer was fairly meaningless to most Americans (most voters say the Presidential debates are “boring” and “useless.” It was entertaining for reporters and political junkies, but most voters weren’t paying attention.
However, any time a politician enjoys a nice bounce in the polls, some caution is required. When numbers move up quickly, they often reverse course just as quickly. This caution is especially appropriate true for Thompson. To date, he has managed to avoid the withering grind of campaign events, questions, and debates that have challenged the other candidates. Now, he will have to compete on equal terms with the others he hopes to defeat.
Getting your message out on the Tonight Show is much different that getting a message out as one of many candidates clamoring for attention in a network debate format. In addition to learning how to compete in that environment, Thompson will have the added disadvantage of learning to do so while starting at the top.
The bottom line is that the race for the Republican Presidential nomination remains essentially where it has been for months. The only substantive difference is that we are finally getting close to learning the answer of the defining question—is Fred Thompson for real? We are likely to learn that answer in the next month or two. If his performance and organization can live up to the image he has created, Thompson could shock the political pundits who have their doubts about him. If not, the campaign may come down to a competition between Giuliani and Romney, with Giuliani having the edge.
Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day, Monday through Friday. Those results are based upon a four-day rolling average and provide a quick update on the race.
In addition to the daily tracking poll, Rasmussen Reports provides weekly results to provide a longer-term overview of the race. These updates are based upon nightly telephone surveys. Results are reported based upon interviews conducted on the seven days up to and including the night before posting.
For the seven days ending September 9, 2007 show that Fred Thompson earns 24% of the vote while Rudy Giuliani attracts 23%. They are followed by Mitt Romney at 13%, John McCain at 12%, Mike Huckabee at 6%, and four other candidates who split 4% of the vote while 17% are undecided. Those other four candidates, mentioned by name in the polling question, are Sam Brownback, Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, and Tom Tancredo (review history of weekly results).
The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters. This includes both Republicans and those independents likely to vote in a Republicans Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other key stats for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.
Can anyone be taken seriously now that said he waited too long or should have gone to the round robin Q&A “debates”?
If he doesn’t debate, will they let him take the oath of office on the capitol steps?
I thought she was British..didn't know she could be President....
The early debates would have tarnished him just by participating.
If I were Fred, I would not stand on the same stage as Ron Paul.
I figgered as much. I’ve been waiting for the first completely post-announcement polling period data to come out.
I take him seriously because he didn’t jump into the race when everyone else did. The sign of a serious independent thinker.
Waited too long? It’s still 2007.
Waited too long for whom? Just because the MSM says so, doesn't mean it is true. Fred is earlier than most successful candidates. It is only because Obama announced early that everyone jumped on the early bandwagon. There is plenty of time for Fred to be in 20 debates.
This was a foregone conclusion. I knew Fred would surge in the polls as soon as he made it official. I regret that I will be retired from the Army on the 30th of this month because I would love have had the opportunity to call him my Commander in Chief.
As usual, Rasmussen takes a measured and sensible view.
Maybe the key sentence was this: “Thompson’s gains since announcing have come primarily among conservatives likely to vote in a Republican Primary.”
So, he appeals to conservatives, and he appeals to likely voters, who are committed enough to vote in the primaries as well as the general election.
If Giuliani still appeals to some conservatives, this must be either because of his reputation after 9/11 or his reputation for having turned New York City around. These are certainly his two strong points.
But “conservatives” are a coalition, including some who are only fiscal conservatives, some who are libertarians, and some who are social conservatives, as well as some who favor all these positions in some measure. Giuliani is pro-abort and anti-gun, as well as pro-gay and pro-illegal-immigration, and it’s hard to see how he can win the Republican primaries with those albatrosses hanging around his neck.
Interesting that Romney is hardly mentioned, although he has had all spring and summer to make his case as a leader. Clearly he has failed to do that, and he currently stands at 13%, vs. 12% for McCain. Romney and McCain have name recognition, but McCain is widely granted to be a loser, and it looks as if Romney is competing more with him than with the current leaders.
“To date, he has managed to avoid the withering grind of campaign events, questions, and debates that have challenged the other candidates.”
I don’t see why that is good. I would like to see what he can do when faced with those things. You can bet that Hillary is not going to let the GOP nominee sidestep all of that.
How can you be retiring? The left has been telling us for the last couple of years that there’s a “back-door draft” and no one has been allowed to leave the military since about 2004!! LOL
I will be very surprised if Thompson plays the game according to MSM rules. He’s where he’s at now because he played by his rules. Why would he want to change the formula?
Rudi a moderate. Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ahahahahahahaha, oh please, stop it, please, hahahahhahahah, help me......end the pain, Rudi a moderate....hahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahhaa
Rasmussen weekly (ending 9/9): Thompson 24, Guiliani 23, Undecided 17, Romney 13, McCain 12, Huckabee 6, Brownback/Hunter/Paul/Tancredo (combined) 4
Rasmussen daily (9/10): Thompson 26, Guiliani 22, Romney 13, McCain 12, Huckabee 6
Good analysis. I just can't imagine conservatives (abandoning their values and principles) nominating and uniting behind someone as liberal as Giuliani. It's just not going to happen. We do NOT need a liberal to lead our Party.
The only way that Hillary (with her high negatives) can win--is to divide the Party and demoralize the base. That is PRECISELY what a liberal like Giuliani would do.
We need a conservative to UNITE the Party,,,,and ENERGIZE the base. Fred is the right man for that job.
When McCain drops out Fred will pick up another 10 points.
Ok America the shows over lets go home, the Washington establishment wins again, business as usual
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