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Is Thompson Too Late?
Real Clear Politics ^ | September 04, 2007 | Jay Cost

Posted on 09/04/2007 2:35:09 PM PDT by gpapa

Fred Thompson will announce his candidacy this week - but many pundits think that it is over before it started. Thompson missed his "moment" by holding out through the summer.

I could not disagree with this more. Without commenting on the likelihood of Thompson being the GOP nominee, I think it is wrong to argue that his chances to acquire the nomination have decreased because he has waited.

Thompson's problem is not the late announcement. It is, rather, the fact that his campaign has been poorly run. But this poor management may not be what you think. Changing staffers early, giving speeches that fall flat, fundraising that is a little weak - all of these are normal for a candidate who is just starting out, who up until recently never contemplated being president. Holding this against Thompson fails to take into account the learning curve that comes with these sorts of affairs. Instead, Thompson's problem has been that he has allowed the media to interpret all of these events as problems of his campaign, rather than as its natural and expected birth pangs. Thompson has failed to manage the expectations of the media. This is something that a candidate at any stage needs to do - and Thompson has not done it as well as he could have.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; fred; fredthompson; fredwho; thompson
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To: gpapa

too late?

It’s TWO THOUSAND AND SEVEN FOR PETE’S SAKES!!!

heck, is anyone but FReepers and the clowns running actually paying attention or at even care...ask me 9/4/2008 who I’m voting for...

and for the record, the only way Fred Thompson is not the next POTUS is if they find him in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.

now back to what reeeeeeeeely matters in September 2007;
MLB, college football and the NFL! LOL


81 posted on 09/04/2007 4:16:23 PM PDT by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots! Semper Fi!)
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To: crazyshrink
6 months ago all primaries were a go based on ‘04 timetables. Neither Fred I believe, nor myself I am sure, had any knowledge of this fiasco of musical primaries.

6 months ago, maybe not. But he surely knew what was happening two months ago. Fred made his call around the 4th of July not to announce. That has brought him some benefits and some penalties. He got free publicity. He lost the time for formal fundraising, advertising, and ground organization that was not allowed under "exploratory" status.

Now, he gets to see if he guessed right.

The way I see it, Romney is playing an "early state" strategy, trying to win big in the first few and build momentum. Rudy is looking at the big states of Super Tuesday, with liberal wing powerhouses of NY and CA. Thompson's best shot for early wins seems to be the South. The question is, will it be a two candidate or a three candidate race after Feb. 5?

One wild card is FL, where Romney and Thompson are within the margin of error of each other, and Guiliani in the lead (15, 17, and 30%, IIRC). If FL is penalized half its delegates for moving up its primary, from 114 to 57, that throws a wrench into the whole calculus.

As it is, a candidate needs 1259 delegates. By Feb. 5, at least 1299 will be assigned.

82 posted on 09/04/2007 4:18:49 PM PDT by LexBaird (Behold, thou hast drinken of the Aide of Kool, and are lost unto Men.)
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To: ejonesie22
Frail hell he died 6 months ago.

Enjoy reality, you're going to get it good and hard.

83 posted on 09/04/2007 4:22:18 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The fourth estate is the fifth column.)
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To: Carry_Okie

I have it now and love each and every minute of it!

FRED THOMPSON 2008!


84 posted on 09/04/2007 4:28:27 PM PDT by ejonesie22 (I don't use a sarcasm tag, it kills the effect...)
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To: kellynla
ask me 9/4/2008 who I’m voting for

If you are waiting 'til next year to decide who you will vote for in the primary, you'll be about 8 months too late. If the "la" in your handle is for Louisiana, your primary is Feb. 9. If is for Los Angeles, it's on Feb 5. If it's for something different, you're on your own.

85 posted on 09/04/2007 4:28:54 PM PDT by LexBaird (Behold, thou hast drinken of the Aide of Kool, and are lost unto Men.)
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To: crazyshrink

Dumb Dims! Bush isn’t running. Someone should tell them.


86 posted on 09/04/2007 4:39:21 PM PDT by Palladin (Satan to Fidel: "Let me light your cigar.")
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To: LexBaird
ya gotta read the ENTIRE post before you respond...I didn’t say I was waiting til next year to “decide” in fact what I said was “Thompson would be the next POTUS”...ya gotta read and comprehend the entire posts if you want to get the entire picture...
87 posted on 09/04/2007 4:46:03 PM PDT by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots! Semper Fi!)
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To: LexBaird

Nice analysis.

Do you think the “mass” of candidates will stay in the race thus each earning some delegates and becoming “power brokers” and “leveragers” in the conventions?


88 posted on 09/04/2007 5:09:20 PM PDT by crazyshrink
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To: Fred

Sorry, could not see the picture until I got home.

But that is about it...


89 posted on 09/04/2007 5:09:23 PM PDT by ejonesie22 (I don't use a sarcasm tag, it kills the effect...)
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To: gpapa
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
90 posted on 09/04/2007 5:25:51 PM PDT by Sue Perkick (And I hope that what I’ve done here today doesn’t force you to have a negative opinion of me….)
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To: crazyshrink
I don’t think the money will be there for the “mass”. They may choose to stay in on a shoestring without any real campaign, but I doubt it will win them many delegates. Certainly not enough to be a factor if the convention becomes a brokered one. The power broker will be whomever is third in the plurality.

Probable a couple will drop after the first primary, another few after super Tuesday, and one or two stick it out to the bitter end. If I had a guess, McCain and Huckabee out on Feb 6th. Paul in it to the end. Brownback out earlier, rather than later. Hunter...I dunno; probably depends on Thompson’s traction. Tancredo throws behind whomever is pushing the border issues hardest.

91 posted on 09/04/2007 5:31:31 PM PDT by LexBaird (Behold, thou hast drinken of the Aide of Kool, and are lost unto Men.)
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To: kellynla
I didn’t say I was waiting til next year to “decide” in fact what I said was “Thompson would be the next POTUS”

He's gotta win the primaries first. That's the election we are talking about.

92 posted on 09/04/2007 5:33:20 PM PDT by LexBaird (Behold, thou hast drinken of the Aide of Kool, and are lost unto Men.)
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To: gpapa
This “too late” meme is just the media and pundits sour grapes because Thompson did it his way, on his schedule. They kept trying to force his hand with the “date” he was going to announce, never verifying it with him or his committee.

Typical voters aren’t paying attention yet. It’s just us who eat, sleep and breathe this stuff who perceive it as late in the game. Within a couple weeks everyone will ignore the timing of his entry and it will be either neutral or a plus for his candidacy because he went against the grain.

Remember what it was like before the Iowa Caucus in 2004? Dean, Dean, Dean! He was anointed as the second coming and the man who had cracked the code of Internet grassroots. As Savage predicted, John Kerry - The guy with the biggest hair - won the Caucus. Up to that point he had only been mentioned in passing as an “also ran” by the media. Dean imploded and the rest is history.

93 posted on 09/04/2007 5:37:37 PM PDT by HundredDollars (All Great Civilizations Collapse. Why Fight It? Heil Hitlary!)
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To: LexBaird

From a Repub point of view, you may be right.

I am deliciously smacking my lips at the thought of the Dim side however. Dims are so emotionally single issued they may have lost sight5 of the forest due to the trees. They are so fixated on GWB, they have become the proverbial “boiling frogs”.


94 posted on 09/04/2007 5:38:21 PM PDT by crazyshrink
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To: gpapa
"Is Thompson Too Late?"

Yes, he's too late. Vote for Duncan Hunter.


95 posted on 09/04/2007 5:47:13 PM PDT by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt.)--has-been, will write Duncan Hunter in)
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To: familyop

Ok, will do...

I want to try and get Hunter ahead of Ron Paul at least, so I may give him a hand...

Sheesh...


96 posted on 09/04/2007 6:02:17 PM PDT by ejonesie22 (I don't use a sarcasm tag, it kills the effect...)
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To: gpapa
Thompson has failed to manage the expectations of the media.

Translation... Thompson has failed to yield to the demands of the media.

They can't abide anyone who plays against the rules they set up or who manages to stand and succeed despite their attacks and onslaught. Needless to say, Fred has managed to do just that.

97 posted on 09/04/2007 6:14:49 PM PDT by Route66 (America's Main Street - - - President Fred Dalton Thompson / POTUS 44)
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To: ejonesie22; familyop
It’s real sad that Paul is generally polling higher than Hunter, but that is more of a representation that the straw polls are open to all party affiliations, which the primaries generally aren’t. Paul is drawing people out from under every moon rock and comic book store.
98 posted on 09/04/2007 6:24:31 PM PDT by mnehring (If there's one thing that makes me sick it's when someone tries to hide behind politics- Joey Ramone)
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To: ejonesie22; mnehrling
Duncan Hunter Wins Townhall.com Texas Republican Straw Poll; Fred Thompson Second (Sorry Paulites)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1889946/posts


99 posted on 09/04/2007 6:32:51 PM PDT by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt.)--has-been, will write Duncan Hunter in)
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To: gpapa

Yes, Fred Thompson waited too long to announce and we all are the better for it in the long run...
Duncan Hunter 2008!!!


100 posted on 09/04/2007 6:34:36 PM PDT by yield 2 the right
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