Nice analysis.
Do you think the “mass” of candidates will stay in the race thus each earning some delegates and becoming “power brokers” and “leveragers” in the conventions?
Probable a couple will drop after the first primary, another few after super Tuesday, and one or two stick it out to the bitter end. If I had a guess, McCain and Huckabee out on Feb 6th. Paul in it to the end. Brownback out earlier, rather than later. Hunter...I dunno; probably depends on Thompson’s traction. Tancredo throws behind whomever is pushing the border issues hardest.