[crazyshrink]

Nice analysis.

Do you think the “mass” of candidates will stay in the race thus each earning some delegates and becoming “power brokers” and “leveragers” in the conventions?

[LexBaird]

I don’t think the money will be there for the “mass”. They may choose to stay in on a shoestring without any real campaign, but I doubt it will win them many delegates. Certainly not enough to be a factor if the convention becomes a brokered one. The power broker will be whomever is third in the plurality.

Probable a couple will drop after the first primary, another few after super Tuesday, and one or two stick it out to the bitter end. If I had a guess, McCain and Huckabee out on Feb 6th. Paul in it to the end. Brownback out earlier, rather than later. Hunter...I dunno; probably depends on Thompson’s traction. Tancredo throws behind whomever is pushing the border issues hardest.