Posted on 09/04/2007 2:35:09 PM PDT by gpapa
Fred Thompson will announce his candidacy this week - but many pundits think that it is over before it started. Thompson missed his "moment" by holding out through the summer.
I could not disagree with this more. Without commenting on the likelihood of Thompson being the GOP nominee, I think it is wrong to argue that his chances to acquire the nomination have decreased because he has waited.
Thompson's problem is not the late announcement. It is, rather, the fact that his campaign has been poorly run. But this poor management may not be what you think. Changing staffers early, giving speeches that fall flat, fundraising that is a little weak - all of these are normal for a candidate who is just starting out, who up until recently never contemplated being president. Holding this against Thompson fails to take into account the learning curve that comes with these sorts of affairs. Instead, Thompson's problem has been that he has allowed the media to interpret all of these events as problems of his campaign, rather than as its natural and expected birth pangs. Thompson has failed to manage the expectations of the media. This is something that a candidate at any stage needs to do - and Thompson has not done it as well as he could have.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
too late?
It’s TWO THOUSAND AND SEVEN FOR PETE’S SAKES!!!
heck, is anyone but FReepers and the clowns running actually paying attention or at even care...ask me 9/4/2008 who I’m voting for...
and for the record, the only way Fred Thompson is not the next POTUS is if they find him in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.
now back to what reeeeeeeeely matters in September 2007;
MLB, college football and the NFL! LOL
6 months ago, maybe not. But he surely knew what was happening two months ago. Fred made his call around the 4th of July not to announce. That has brought him some benefits and some penalties. He got free publicity. He lost the time for formal fundraising, advertising, and ground organization that was not allowed under "exploratory" status.
Now, he gets to see if he guessed right.
The way I see it, Romney is playing an "early state" strategy, trying to win big in the first few and build momentum. Rudy is looking at the big states of Super Tuesday, with liberal wing powerhouses of NY and CA. Thompson's best shot for early wins seems to be the South. The question is, will it be a two candidate or a three candidate race after Feb. 5?
One wild card is FL, where Romney and Thompson are within the margin of error of each other, and Guiliani in the lead (15, 17, and 30%, IIRC). If FL is penalized half its delegates for moving up its primary, from 114 to 57, that throws a wrench into the whole calculus.
As it is, a candidate needs 1259 delegates. By Feb. 5, at least 1299 will be assigned.
Enjoy reality, you're going to get it good and hard.
I have it now and love each and every minute of it!
FRED THOMPSON 2008!
If you are waiting 'til next year to decide who you will vote for in the primary, you'll be about 8 months too late. If the "la" in your handle is for Louisiana, your primary is Feb. 9. If is for Los Angeles, it's on Feb 5. If it's for something different, you're on your own.
Dumb Dims! Bush isn’t running. Someone should tell them.
Nice analysis.
Do you think the “mass” of candidates will stay in the race thus each earning some delegates and becoming “power brokers” and “leveragers” in the conventions?
Sorry, could not see the picture until I got home.
But that is about it...
Probable a couple will drop after the first primary, another few after super Tuesday, and one or two stick it out to the bitter end. If I had a guess, McCain and Huckabee out on Feb 6th. Paul in it to the end. Brownback out earlier, rather than later. Hunter...I dunno; probably depends on Thompson’s traction. Tancredo throws behind whomever is pushing the border issues hardest.
He's gotta win the primaries first. That's the election we are talking about.
Typical voters aren’t paying attention yet. It’s just us who eat, sleep and breathe this stuff who perceive it as late in the game. Within a couple weeks everyone will ignore the timing of his entry and it will be either neutral or a plus for his candidacy because he went against the grain.
Remember what it was like before the Iowa Caucus in 2004? Dean, Dean, Dean! He was anointed as the second coming and the man who had cracked the code of Internet grassroots. As Savage predicted, John Kerry - The guy with the biggest hair - won the Caucus. Up to that point he had only been mentioned in passing as an “also ran” by the media. Dean imploded and the rest is history.
From a Repub point of view, you may be right.
I am deliciously smacking my lips at the thought of the Dim side however. Dims are so emotionally single issued they may have lost sight5 of the forest due to the trees. They are so fixated on GWB, they have become the proverbial “boiling frogs”.
Ok, will do...
I want to try and get Hunter ahead of Ron Paul at least, so I may give him a hand...
Sheesh...
Translation... Thompson has failed to yield to the demands of the media.
They can't abide anyone who plays against the rules they set up or who manages to stand and succeed despite their attacks and onslaught. Needless to say, Fred has managed to do just that.
Yes, Fred Thompson waited too long to announce and we all are the better for it in the long run...
Duncan Hunter 2008!!!
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