Posted on 08/27/2007 4:57:42 PM PDT by greyfoxx39
Yesterday's Arizona Republic reported on an interesting phenomenon taking place as a new workplace identification law approaches implementation. Those workers with no documentation -- in other words, illegal aliens -- have begun to sell off their property and leave the state:
Undocumented immigrants are starting to leave Arizona because of the new employer-sanctions law. The state's strong economy has been a magnet for illegal immigrants for years. But a growing number are pulling up stakes out of fear they will be jobless come Jan. 1, when the law takes effect. The departures are drawing cheers from immigration hard-liners and alarm from business owners already seeing a drop in sales.
It's impossible to count how many undocumented immigrants have fled because of the new law. But based on interviews with undocumented immigrants, immigrant advocates, community leaders and real-estate agents, at least several hundred have left since Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano signed the bill on July 2. There are an estimated 500,000 illegal immigrants in Arizona.
Some are moving to other states, where they think they will have an easier time getting jobs. Others are returning to Mexico, selling their effects and putting their houses on the market.
The number departing is expected to mushroom as the Jan. 1 deadline draws closer. After that, the law will require employers to verify the employment eligibility of their workers through a federal database.
The immigration hard-liners appear to have proven one of their main arguments. Illegal immigrants who face a loss of employment due to strict employer sanctions will move elsewhere, and rather quickly. One talk-radio host that caters to what the Republic calls "undocumented immigrants" estimates that the departure rate has already hit 100 per day. It will likely increase until most of them depart before the end of the year, when their jobs will disappear.
Arizona passed employer sanctions with a particular bite. Rather than set up an escalating series of fines, which has been the federal approach, the state opted to put employers out of business. A first offense gets a ten-day suspension of the firm's business license, which would close the doors during that period. A subsequent offense revokes the business license permanently. Needless to say, that has provided an incentive to business owners to start checking identities through the federal database and terminating anyone who doesn't clear the system.
The Arizona Chamber of Commerce heads a coalition that wants the law repealed based on a Constitutional challenge, but it's hard to see how they can succeed. The state can impose sanctions on business licenses it issues, and it can insist that employers check for worker eligibility. The real issue for the ACC is labor shortages. The state currently has an unemployment rate of 3.7%, statistically full employment. Arizona employers will have to raise wages to compete for workers, which will cost consumers more but allow for more money in the market as well. It also might prompt business to push for automation where possible, using technology to fill the gaps.
However, the state does have around 9% of its workforce comprised by illegals. They rent houses and apartments, shop for food, and consume just like anyone else does in Arizona. When they disappear, the state will undoubtedly suffer a hit to the economy, especially in housing, which could depress real-estate values in some areas. Some of the immigrants own houses, and they have to sell them fast, which has glutted the resale market in the state. Secondary markets like furniture and home improvement have slowed considerably in Arizona, too.
Proponents of federalism often refer to states as laboratories for political experiments. Arizona's efforts on employer sanctions will prove an interesting test case for employer-based immigration sanctions.
:)
No, just 10 extra in the house......in one room.....gotta have SOME privacy : )
“Sheriff Joe Arpaio for President”
B U M P
You are a kind soul...! ;)
I try :-)
I guess we will have to vote for a Democrat next election. My head is gonna explode!
OOOOOoooo, EXCELLENT analogy! :-)
I’m stealing it. You can’t do anything about it, because clearly, they can’t catch all the analogy-lifters!!! ;-)
So you’re saying that the mortgage melt-down is due to anti-immigration activities. It has nothing to do with rising interest rates, but instead is because illegal aliens are being “forced” out of their homes.
Who'da thought it: attack the problem on the demand side, and the "supply side" issue takes care of itself. Amazing.
But really, I think it's pretty damned rude of them. Couldn't they even wait for the @#$!#$ border wall that was supposed to be the only way to solve the problem?
I can’t for the life of me understand how this is a surprise to anyone.
Pols on the left and right damn well knew this would happen, but were willing to sell their souls for votes and/or cheap labor.
The steam engine was invented in the first century AD by a Greek engineer named Heron. Cheap slave labor prevented the invention from being harnessed until 1698.
A California grape grower has pulled up all his grapes and replanted them with grapes that can be picked by machine.
He will employ 1/10th the labor.
Use with caution. All my analogies are subject to the “fair use” doctrine. Consult your copyright attorney for details.
ping
At least they’ll be easier to identify and arrest.
>>Wanna bet the gangbangers and drug runners will still be in AZ when all the others have left?<<
You are absolutely right. And unless the state cuts off all social services (’freebies’) to illegal immigrants, the day laborers will not leave. After all, no home-owner will be fined for hiring a ‘day laborer’ to mow their lawn or clean their house. They will remain to use our emergency rooms, schools, food stamps, etc., and do a little yard/house work on the side for beer money.
The gangs and drug runners will have to be dealt with very harshly, after the others are gone.
The fence must be built!
re: When they disappear, the state will undoubtedly suffer a hit to the economy, especially in housing, which could depress real-estate values in some areas. Some of the immigrants own houses, and they have to sell them fast, which has glutted the resale market in the state.)))
Bah. What about all the money that goes straight out of AZ's economy via remittances to Mexico? That money will stay in the state. And it's crazy to blame the housing market on departing illegals, who typically rent run-down homes and pack them full.
Housing may well become more expensive because the black market labor pool in housing construction will dry up--
“BAnks are going to end up with a lot of mortgages on over valued property, but then the anti immmigrant crowd doesn’t care what happens to the economy. The reduced demand for goods and services will put a lot of citizens out of work or out of business. Here’s some more from the original article.”
Question: Why did the banks loan money to illegal aliens in the first place?
Question: If ‘buy low, sell high’ is the essence of free enterprise, you think that there’ll be a market for the distressed properties in question, and for the secondhand furniture too?
Question: Those ‘undocumented workers’ put a strain on tax-funded institutions like schools, hospitals, fire departments, police departments, jails, parole boards, DSHS, HHS, Centers for Disease Control, and other county and city services. What will be the expected economic impact of the reduction in demand for these services? Will it cost more or less to provide them to ‘legal, documented people’?
Question: What effect will the reduction in illegal immigration have on the status and conduct of legally documented aliens?
Question: What are the likely environmental effects on the relocation of the illegal immigrant community? Will they drive less? What’s the impact on local auto traffic? Mass transit? Waste management?
The false economies of illegal labor forces are pretty sobering once they are examined. You can mitigate the impact of the economic BURDEN of having all of these undocumented, illegal immigrants here if you institute a system that allows foreign nationals to come to the US with full documentation and certain legal rights, work, and then return to Mexico.
You CAN’T do that until they go back home. Good for Arizona. This makes eminent economic sense, and it fixes the problem, for Arizona, without putting any major impact on local law enforcement.
It's only the wrong time to refi if you actually intend to pay the money back. =]
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