Posted on 08/27/2007 7:53:49 AM PDT by Turret Gunner A20
This is what The Wall Street Journal had to say about the FairTax.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110010523
And boy did they get it very, very wrong.
Evidently the FairTax is making some people nervous. The attacks are increasing, and there's a striking similarity in the fabrications being offered by columnists and pundits from coast to coast.
The heaviest, and possibly the strangest, attack over the weekend came from Wall Street Journal columnist Bruce Bartlett. Bartlett's column was titled "Fair Tax, Flawed Tax," and by Sunday morning it had generated hundreds of emails. When I finally read Bartlett's column I was completely stunned. I've referred to his commentary dozens of times in the last few years on the show, so for him to be so far off – so bizarrely wrong – about the FairTax was stunning.
OK ... by now you've probably read the column, so let's deal first with what I feel to be Bartlett's libelous assertion that the FairTax was " ...originally devised by the Church of Scientology in the early 1990s as a way to get rid of the Internal Revenue Service,"
Where in the hell did that come from?
This assertion – that the FairTax was developed by the Church of Scientology – is flat-out false. I suspect that Bartlett allowed someone else to do his research for him on this issue; someone with an agenda. Perhaps he blindly accepted some information from a Washington insider, perhaps a K Street denizen who fears the loss of power and income should the FairTax become law.
What Bartlett did was very simple, and astonishingly careless. He mistook a group called Citizens for an Alternative Tax System (CATS) for the people who developed the FairTax.
Now CATS did have a plan for a national retail sales tax, but it was in no way connected with Americans for Fair Taxation (AFFT) and the FairTax.
http://www.fairtax.org/site/PageServer
I was familiar with the CATS program. I had them on my radio repeatedly. As I've told you, I've been interested in this idea of replacing the income tax with the sales tax for some time.
The CATS idea was simply to do away with income taxes and replace them with a 17% sales tax. Payroll taxes would stay with you, as would many other federal tax levies. As you can see, this is substantially different from the program offered by the FairTax.
I'm going to lead you to several articles here. The first link will take you a document detailing the history of CATS.
http://www.fairtax.org/site/PageServer
If you read this carefully you will see absolutely no reference to the FairTax. There is no reference to Congressman John Linder or H.R. 25, the FairTax Act. All of the references are to CATS and their own idea of a national retail sales tax.
Moving right along here, next you have a list of articles detailing the connection between CATS and Scientology.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22Citizens+for+an+Alternative+Tax+System%22%2BScientology&btnG=Google+Search
That's right. It was CATS, not Americans for Fair Taxation with the strong connection to Scientology. In fact, here's another link setting for Scientology front groups.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22Citizens+for+an+Alternative+Tax+System%22%2BScientology&btnG=Google+Search
Scroll down the list a bit and you'll see CATS! You will not see AFFT or the FairTax mentioned.
The people responsible for creating AFFT and the Fair Tax are Houston Businessmen Leo Linbek and Robert McNair. Neither one of these people are Scientologists.
These men and their associates raised over $20 million for a study on finding an alternative to the federal income tax. That research was conducted by a coalition of market and academic experts from places such as MIT and Harvard, none of whom were associated in any way with Scientology. From that research came the FairTax.
Just an interesting historical note: When the research for a new tax system was commissioned with the $20 million raised by Linbeck, McNair and their associates, they made a commitment to accept whatever findings the research developed, strongly suspecting that their efforts were going to lead to the endorsement of some sort of a flat tax. The market and academic researchers came forth with an idea for a national retail sales tax instead, and the FairTax was born.
Bruce Bartlett owes Leo Linbeck, Robert McNair and the hundreds of thousands of FairTax volunteers across an America an apology. I suspect that apology will be forthcoming before too many days pass.
There were many other inaccuracies in Bartlett's column. As you know Congressman Linder and I, with the help of a brilliant analyst named Rob Woodall, are busy writing another FairTax book that will address virtually every meaningful criticism you may have heard or read. In Reader's Digest form, here are some quick response to other charges by Bartlett:
Bartlett jumps right into the middle of this nonsense over what the real tax rate is; 23 percent or 30 percent. He correctly points out that we don't quote the FairTax rate the way conventional sales taxes are quoted. The reason is simple; the FairTax will replace the embedded taxes and already exist in every item or service we purchase; and secondly, the FairTax will replace the income tax. Both the embedded taxes in the prices of what we buy now and the income taxes we pay now are inclusive taxes. We're replacing inclusive taxes with inclusive taxes.
It's so very simple: When you see a lamp on the shelf marked $100, you will pay $100 for that lamp when you get to the checkout. You will receive a receipt which shows that $23 of the $100 you have paid represents the FairTax. You do the math for yourself, but every time I work it out it comes to 23%
Bartlett also joins other critics in another blatant falsehood about the FairTax. Here's a sentence from his column: "If a product costs $1 at retail, the FairTax adds 30%, for a total of $1.30. Since the 30-cent tax is 23% of $1.30, FairTax supporters say the rate is 23% rather than 30%." In another paragraph Bartlett also says "Imagine paying 30 percent to the federal government on top of the purchase price of your next house."
Wrong, wrong, wrong. If a product costs $1 at retail .... It costs $1, with the FairTax already included. This is so easy to understand, you almost get the idea that people are intentionally trying to confuse the facts here. That $1 item Bartlett is referring to costs $1 at retail today! But instead of including the FairTax in that price, all of the embedded taxes from every business and individual involved in bringing that item to the marketplace are included. You remove one, you add the other. And that bit about 30 percent to the federal government on top of the purchase price of your new home?
Another lie. The embedded taxes are so high on the price of a new home today that when they are removed and the FairTax added, that home could be a percent or two cheaper! Come on, Bruce. This really isn't that hard. Let's try to spell this out plainly for everyone:
In another astonishing falsehood Bartlett says that the cost of providing the prebate to every household in America is not factored into the FairTax rate. He says it would cost at least $600 billion the first year. Again, Bartlett is just flat wrong. The cost of the rebate most certainly was included in the 23 percent rate. Congressman Linder tells me that if the rebate had not been included the FairTax rate could have been lowered to 18 percent.
The fact is that the rebate is projected to cost 5 percent, and that 5 percent is most certainly included in the rate.
Bartlett makes another huge mistake(?) regarding the prebate. He says that the FairTax sends monthly checks to every household based on income. Then he speaks of the "complexity and intrusiveness of tracking every American's monthly income .." Wrong ... completely and absolutely wrong. As anyone who has read the book knows, the prebate is not based on income, it's based on family size. There is no need to track anyone's monthly income. The only thing the government needs is a valid Social Security number and the number of people in the household.
Then, of course, Bartlett gets into the question of whether or not you can fund the federal government at present levels with a 23 percent inclusive sales tax rate. He cites numerous sources that say the tax rate would have to be much higher than 23 percent.
Know this ... in every case where some individual or organization has come forward to say that the tax rate would have to be higher than 23 percent, they have first changed the terms of the FairTax. That is, they have created exemptions. For instance, they assume that congress would never agree to tax food and medicines, therefore the tax would have to be XX percent, or that congress wouldn't tax transportation and housing, therefore the tax would have to be XX percent. Again .. the fact that the taxes are already there in the form of embedded taxes – embedded taxes to be replaced by the fair tax – is ignored.
Instead of me arguing about the sufficiency of the 23 percent rate, perhaps you would like to read it for yourself. Here's a link to a study by several economists titled "Taxing Sales under the FairTax: What Rate Works?"
http://people.bu.edu/kotlikof/Taxing%20Sales%20under%20the%20FairTax,%20What%20Rate%20Works,%20October%206,%202006.pdf
Don't take my word for it. I'm just a second-tier talk show host. See what several renowned economists have to say in a 34-page report.
Let's face it. The FairTax is a ripe target. It is easy to demagogue.
"Candidate Smith wants to add 30 percent to the price of everything you buy."
"Candidate Jones wants to add 23 percent to the price of your new home"
Can you imagine some uninformed voter (remember, most voters are government educated) hearing something like that? You just know how they're going to vote, don't you?
Is it possible that some of these irresponsible attacks are being mounted right now to prevent a new candidate, Fred Thompson, for instance, from running on this issue? Is a shot being fired across some political bows?
http://boortz.com/nuze/200708/08272007.html - fairtax
Your claim that over time prices go up.
The reason an inclusive number is used for the fair tax is that it is replacing the income tax, which is an inclusive tax. So to compare apples to apples, both must be quoted at an inclusive rate.
Then how does the actual Wal-Mart stores get income, pay their bills, and produce a profit?
Why not? Companies are not longer going to be paying business taxes. The $60,000 you see pretax does not also represent the real cost to employers of an employee because it doesn't include the social security taxes the company pays on the employee's behalf that are in addition to what the employee sees deducted on their paycheck. The employer's "contribution" is currently hidden from the employees because the government didn't want to scare people with what social security is really costing them.
That person that is thinks they are paid $60,000 is really being paid more than that.
The employer no longer has to pay out those social security taxes. They don't have to pay business taxes. Their accounting costs drop dramatically.
What evidence do you have that the savings to businesses don't cover the price reductions?
As you have been told numerous times before, prices will drop because corporate and other taxes will be eliminated up and down the supply chain.
Payroll taxes may or may not be fully credited in an employee’s paycheck. If FICA withholding is credited but employer’s FICA withholding is retained, the employer has a means to lower prices and the employee sees a full paycheck.
The amount of the price decrease depends on the depth of the supply chain in manufacturing and services. Price lowering estimates presently run in a two sigma band of 11% t0 36%.
But this is the umpteenth time you have been lectured on this. You did not listen before, you will not listen now. So what’s the point of responding to you?
You have no data, you’ve done no research, you have only hot air. Who needs that?
See post 93. If you own WM stock, how’s that working out the last ten years or so?
I don’t see much of a rise in value or dividends.
Your claim that over time prices go up.J.H.C.! I'm not claiming it -- they do go up!!!! That's what inflation is - PRICES GOING UP!!!! If every business was caught in a price war/death spiral/race to the bottom like y'all seem to think they would never go up.
WM last split in 1999, its price hasn’t kept up since, and dividend is maybe 2% per year. I don’t think they produce that much profit.
Contrast with Microsoft, which puts itself in position to compete in another way.
Glad to see someone is ‘still thinking’. Yes, market forces work.
WRONG!!!!
I have 4 gas stations within a half mile of where I work.
Whenever one drops the price, the others soon follow, at least to some extent. Two of the stations tend to be lower in price than the others. One of them always has long lines during busy times, so the others are happy with slightly higher prices and picking up those who are unwilling to wait.
The other with lower prices is a tiny local chain of a few stores that obviously scrapes by on low margins. They often have one pump that isn't working or a credit card machine on a pump that doesn't work. Their signs are cheap. Their store where they sell soft drinks, munchies, beer, and such is what used to be the garage area when it used to be a shell gas station.
There is definitely competition at the retail level in the area.
The first CD player I purchased somewhere around 1989 cost me around $200. You could buy one with far more features for $20 now. It is 10 times cheaper now and that doesn't even take into account that $200 would in general buy you much more than it will now.
As for questioning if some retailer will be the first to lower their price on things, have you ever heard of a sale?
What world are you in?
I'm in the real one. I work in the electronics industry, and I've seen the amount we can charge for things go down year after year.
WRONG!!!!
WAGES: It has been made clear by many proponents of the FairTax that they are expecting 100% of their current gross pay, and that many employer/employee wage relationships, including those for government workers are controlled by contract. So, we'll assume every wage earner gets to keep 100% of their current gross pay. Everyone can figure out for him or herself what that gives them in terms of a take-home pay increase.
BUSINESS COSTS: If we assume that businesses get to keep their half of the payroll taxes (7.65% of all payroll costs up to first $95k per employee), plus taxes on corporate profits (average <2% of Cost of Goods sold) and some tax compliance savings (being generous we'll call this 1% savings), this gives the business about 8% of cost savings with which to potentially reduce prices.
PRICES: For domestic goods, if we assume that the entire 8% is passed along to the consumer, this means that pre-tax prices will be 92% of present day prices. That $10 twelve pack will now be $9.20. Of course, the twelve pack of imported beer is still $10 pre-tax. Once the 30% FairTax is added, the price of the domestic beer will be $11.96 and the price of the imported beer will be $13.00 even. So, domestic prices will go up about 20% and imported item prices will go up about 30%.
GOVERNMENT EXPENSES: Since the government expects this plan to enable them to purchase the same things they purchase now, they will need to raise sufficient revenue in order to achieve purchasing power parity. Since they will be paying the 30% FairTax on every item, we can assume that for stuff they buy, they will see the same 20% price increase on domestic items and 30% increase on imported items as other end consumers. So they will need to increase their dollar intake by this 20%+ to enable them to buy the same amount of stuff. And, of course all government salaries will have the 30% FairTax paid on the salary, less the employer half of the payroll taxes, so this is a net 22.35% increase in the cost of the entire payroll of the US government (and states too, but that is another can of worms).
ENTITLEMENT COSTS: Since the social security payments are linked to CPI, when this 20%+ price rise slams through the economy all the social security checks will have to be raised to cover this massive FairTax caused inflation. They will rise by at least 20%, and a litle more because the basket of goods will include some imported items like oil. Medicare/medical expenses will have the FairTax added, for a 20%+ increase.
GOVERNMENT PURCHASING POWER PARITY: with the cost of Payroll, plus everything they buy, plus the entitlements, all going up 20% plus we can assume that the governement will need to collect approximately 20%+ more of the new inflated dollars in order to buy what they are today with today's more stable dollars.
FAIR TAX RATE: Assuming nothing else changes regarding purchasing behavior, size of the government, etc. this means that the 30% FairTax would need to immediately raised 20% (to 36%) just to bring in all the inflated dollars that are required to fund the govt at present level. The price of domestic beer is now $12.50 and the import is $13.60. This assumes no evasion and no reduction in spending by consumers on new goods and services when the large sales tax is imposed. (an unrealistic assumption by the FairTaxers)
SAVED MONEY: All dollars that are post-tax savings would be devalued by the FairTax inflation by 20% in terms of what they can buy with their hard-earned and saved after-tax money.
Does this sound like a utopia to anyone? Isn't it very likely that a 36% sales tax (or much higher like 50%) will cause consumption to suffer and/or transactions driven into a barter system or the black market where they cannot be taxed. And every dollar that is taken from the legitimate economy is another increase that is needed in the FairTax rate in order to feed the government the amount of money it needs.
Isn't is likely that we will end up with an income tax again on top of the FairTax when this all plays out?
And once people either stop buying, or buy used, or barter for services, or buy on the black market, or funnel purchases through their businesses for a tax exemption, it is very likely that the FairTax inclusive rate would be 33%-- which is an exclusive rate of 50%, making the problem worse.
The FairTax plan makes the false ASSUMPTION that 23% inclusive will be enough to fully find the government at today's level.
FairTaxers generally agree that the FairTax will cause higher prices and FairTaxers think that these will be ok because the purchasing power is what matters. Wage earners will receive a pay increase with their 100% paychecks to compensate for the higher prices.
Domestic prices will rise about 18-25% after a small (max 8%) price cut and then the 30% FairTax is added-- and rise the full 30% for foreign items.
Stick with me here for just one more minute. The government will also need a "raise" to pay the higher prices (because the government pays the FairTax on everything too), and it will take the form of additional revenue that needs to be raised. That additional revenue can ONLY be raised by increasing the FairTax rate, there is no other source to generate revenue. So, the 23% rate when multiplied by 1.18 is now 27.1% inclusive, which is 37.2% exclusive.
And that assumes no reduction in the base. If we assume just the very minimum that the base reduces 8% due to reduction in shelf prices-- ie. no reduction in unit volume of sales, just an 8% lower price for everything, then we need to divide the 27.1% by 0.92 to get a new inclusive rate of 29.5%, which is 41.8% exclusive. And this assumes ZERO evasion, and the same exact level of unit sales as now.
Most recently the FairTax commission found that the FairTax Rate was grossly understated by the FairTax people and that the actual rate would have to be MUCH HIGHER than 29.87% exclusive due to 1)government paying itself tax and 2) erosion of the taxable base due to all factors. Just a 15% erosion in base, coupled with a Federal government costing 20% more than presently (the cost with the FairTax added) makes the rate 33% inclusive which is 50% exclusive.
The FairTax people need to go back to the drawing board and plug in the new reality where prices go up 18-25% and stick that in their models and see what somes out the other side. It won't be pretty is my expectation.
I want to see elimination of corporate taxes, elimination of death taxes, additional reductions in the marginal income tax rates until we find that we are the Laffer optimal point.
In addition I want to see Social Security privatized, and I am willing to pay extra money to pay for those who were promised this benefit, and never receive a penny of it myself. I also want to see Medicare reformed from top-to-bottom. I also want to see Tort Reform to reduce the exorbitant costs of insurance on our medical costs. And we need to reduce the scope of the Federal Government to its constitutionally mandated responsibilities and get rid of the rest. The Golden Goose that is America is way too fat and needs to be put on a severe diet.
These are what we need to do, incremental improvements in what we already have. This is already working and we should keep at it...even Boortz seems to think so. Boortz (9/20): "...the economy continues to go like gangbusters. We are right in the middle of an historic economic boom. Don't let the mainstream media or the Democrats tell you otherwise...we've never had it so good...
This is a ridiculous statement, I would like to see the link and workup on this. It sounds like a hoot.
Wow, you are good! When you are not articulating deep intelligent arguments such as this, you are calling people stupid.
I have done more research and understand the issue better than the paid for whores who do the research for the fairtax.
"While Wal-Mart, which has been struggling with slowing U.S. sales growth, posted a 1.9 percent rise in July same-store sales, Target reported a 6.1 percent rise, topping analysts' expectations." sourceIf everyone knows Wal-Mart is cheaper, why are Target's same-store sales increases so much higher than Wal-Mart's? And why isn't Target lowering their prices to match Wal-Mart's?
Can you work out equations to tell you the optimum price point? No, except in economics class. However, you should be able to negotiate a volume pricing structure with your suppliers, so that the cost/sales function is known. The sales/price function can probably only be found empirically, by moving the price and measuring the impact on sales. And no, even once you find it, it won't be static; you have to constantly be figuring it out. But if you don't make the effort to find out, you might as well be "giving away money".
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