Posted on 08/17/2007 8:18:37 PM PDT by FightThePower!
Let me cover the big picture. I do think we're approaching the end of the world as we know it…I think there is such thing as the business cycle. It exists. And we've had the longest expansion - and the strongest expansion - in the world history. But we're at the end of a 25-year boom. It's gone on more than a full generation now. And I'll tell you how it's going to end: It's going to end with a depression, and not just a depression; not just another Great Depression; it's going to be the Greater Depression.
What's a depression, incidentally? It's a period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated; that's called a depression. Over the last 25 years, distortions and misallocations of capital have produced an artificial boom. But when these distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated, we'll get a depression.
Another general definition of a depression is this: a period of time when most people's standard of living goes down significantly. Now, for the long run, there's no question in my mind the standard of living of everybody on earth is going to go up immensely over the next hundred years. Immensely. But that doesn't mean that we're not going to have setbacks, and I think we're looking at one: A severe standard of living drop. So the economic picture is not going to be good…
So what should you be doing about all this? I suggest you really internationalize yourself. I think what you ought to have is your citizenship in one country, your bank account in another country, your investments in a third, and live in a fourth. You've got to internationalize yourself. Most people out there are like medieval serfs, psychologically and physically: they're born some place, they don't go very far from it and that's where they die, and they're going to get exactly what they deserve. Well, you can't be that way. I think you ought to treat the world as your oyster.
What am I doing about this? I've been all over the world. I guess I've lived in 12 countries now. And out of 175, I've been to most of them, numerous times actually. What am I doing, where do I want to go, where am I living?
Well, in New Zealand. I went there a few years ago for the polo, actually, and the reason was that playing polo there was about 10% what it cost me in Palm Beach, and I liked it better. So we bought a lot of real estate. But since then, the currency has doubled and the real estate within that currency has doubled at least. So I'm getting out of New Zealand. Where am I going now? I'm going to Argentina.
And let me give you a tip, okay? Forget about Europe, it's going to become a petting zoo. It's like Disneyland with real stones instead of paper Mache stones. I mean, Europe is on the slippery slope. I wouldn't touch Europe with a ten-foot pole. If this war with Islam gets out of control, Europe is going to be an epicenter. It's going to be a disaster. I'll tell you where you ought to look. Argentina is the place to be. It's the cheapest country in the world. It has low population, incredibly beautiful, the climate is great. One hundred years ago, it was in competition with the US for being the best place in the world and the richest place. But it went downhill radically, radically.
But let me tell you something. It's turning around I think. And what's going to happen is driven by the fact that everything in Argentina costs between 10% to 30% of what it costs in North America. That's correct. It's that cheap. It's free. It's free. It's free for us as North Americans. But the Europeans really think it's free with that strong Euro. So you're getting a massive immigration from rich Europeans that can see the handwriting on the wall and like it down there. And I really like it down there. It's just a great society, great society, great place to hang out, prices are right. I mean this can solve most of your investment problems right there, just by transplanting yourself, if you've got some capital. Furthermore, Argentina is going to be insolated from WWIII to a good extent.
Hope to see you down there!
We’d all be in trouble — the entire world. If you want to read a good book on the Depression then try The Crash of 29 by Galbraith (yes, I know he’s a liberal writer) but his analysis is excellent.
Oh no? 50 some percent of the population is now beholden to the government for some or all of their income. Something like 7% of the population pays 90% of the taxes.
Katrina was a politicians wet dream. Just practice for after the dems win both houses, the presidency, and control the SCOTUS 5 years later.
Socialism can turn a nation of hard working intelligent people into paupers very quickly.”
Sort of makes you wish there was a test before being allowed to vote or HOLD OFFICE.
Too stupid about basic economic principles and U.S. history and civics? Sorry no vote this year... go to the back of the voting test line.
Then again, turn $2000 into $100,000 in a year in some shadowy deal-— have some aide who dies mysteriously in a park in a major city-— work for a law firm who scams hundreds out of their savings in a land scam in Arkansas?
You get to run for president as the democratic party candidate!
I, too, an busy earning a living and putting my three sons through college. However, four years ago, even though extremely challenged financially, I expanded my own operation internationally (into Argentina, coincidentally), and it has only increased my ability to provide for my family.
I believe Argentina is economically 180 degrees out of phase with the US, and that this makes it an ideal location to hedge one's bets.
The economy in Argentina *is* turning around. The young professionals I know there stopped talking to me about wanting to migrate to the US after they saw the aftermath of Katrina.
The murder rate was around 9.7 per 100,000 in 1933. Now it is around 6 per 100,000.
“Still, the vast majority of people were unaffected by the Great Depression.”
Really?
Wasn’t unemployment greater than 10%? Yes, that is a minority but a big one.
Didn’t the dust bowl occuring at the same time, force thousands from their farms?
Didn’t the psycological effect of the Depression change the way those who experienced it lived the rest of their lives?
I know it changed my Grandparents. It effected my parents who were small children and still remember what it was like.
“I keep asking my baby boomer friends: who’s going to buy their over-priced stocks when they ask their mutual fund managers for a distribution? Not me, thank you. They have no clue.”
I’ve seen a only few people mention this looming problem.
When the Boomers retire and start selling their assets will there be enough buyers to keep the prices up?
I see long term downward pressure on asset values.
Keep your wealth in anything but fiat and you will be OK.
BUMP
Gee, Laz,
Aren’t we just the beacon of hope today? ;>
Actually, thinking about it, a Depression might wring a lot of crap out of society that has been building up since 1960.
Hell!! here where I live we are still in the depression era.
I had no idea America had came out of the depression??
Yeah, but how's he going to sell anything by saying that?
No it wasn't. The annual average unemployment rate for 1933 was 24.9%. In 1940 it was 14.6%.
If the government turns to socialism after an economic crash I don’t see anything wrong with leaving. The real value of America is the ideas our founding fathers left us with and the freedom that we have here. I would rather the people who believe in that freedom go somewhere else and start anew, than cling to a physical location that no longer supports the values that made this country great.
You must be joking. My parents went thru the Great Depression. Unemployment was over 25%. In 1933, at the worst point in the depression, more than 15 million Americans—one-quarter of the nation’s workforce—were unemployed. And we had double digit unemployment for over a decade. It was the worst and longest economic collapse in the history of the modern industrial world, lasting from the end of 1929 until the early 1940s.
“Lower interest rates, reduce the size of government by 85 percent, secure the borders, deport 30 million illegal aliens, and end all government wasteful spending.
The solutions are so easy.”
But so hard to implement.
Not so. In 1933 the unemployment rate was over 25%. In 1939 it was 15%, which then started to decline as the US government began expanding the national defense system, spending large amounts of money to produce ships, aircraft, weapons, and other war material. This stimulated industrial growth, and unemployment declined rapidly.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.