Check out the GFDL track....
Posted on 08/16/2007 11:07:40 AM PDT by Smogger
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hurricane Dean, which could strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane over the next few days, will likely cross the islands of the eastern Caribbean on Friday and could threaten the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Erin produced heavy rains over portions of Texas as it weakened after moving inland over the south Texas coast this morning.
The energy market is watching the weather models to see if Dean will enter the Gulf of Mexico and where it could disrupt the region's oil and natural gas facilities, which account for roughly a third of U.S. oil production.
The NHC issued hurricane warnings for the Lesser Antilles islands of Dominica and St Lucia. A hurricane warning means the NHC expects a hurricane to strike the warning area within 24 hours.
At 11 a.m. EDT, the center of Dean was located about 350 miles east of Barbados and about 455 miles east of Martinique.
Dean was moving quickly toward the west at near 23 miles per hour. This would put the center of the hurricane near the Lesser Antilles, which extend south from the Virgin Islands to Trinidad and Tobago, on Friday morning.
Dean is packing maximum sustained winds near 90 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
The NHC forecast Dean will strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane (winds 96-110 mph) within 12 hours, a Category 3 hurricane (winds 111-130 mph) in about 24 hours and a Category 4 hurricane (winds of 131-155 mph) in three to four days.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
this will be a screamer
Current tracking has it staying between the islands and the S. America coast, eventually hitting the Yucatan. It’ll surely sink some of those Spanish Gold Ships from the Incan & Aztek mines. :>)
You crack me up!.................
Check out the GFDL track....
A vigorous tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on August 11[1] producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.[2] It encountered conditions favorable for gradual development,[3] and on August 12 it gained organization and became a low.[4] Strong upper-level easterly winds stalled development by preventing much more organization.[5][6] On August 13 the tropical wave organized and, based on visible and infrared satellite imagery, the National Hurricane Center concluded that it had formed into Tropical Depression Four at 1500 UTC about 520 miles (835 km) west-southwest of Cape Verde.[7]
The depression was already exhibiting persistent deep convection, albeit confined to the western portion of its circulation due to easterly wind shear.[8] The depression was expected to strengthen significantly over the coming days[8] due to abating wind shear and warming sea surface temperatures which created conditions favorable for tropical intensification.[9] The depression moved briskly westward, south of a deep layered ridge,[10] quickly escaping the easterly shear and moving over warmer waters.[11]
Based on microwave satellite images and QuikSCAT data, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Dean at 1500 UTC on August 14.[12] That afternoon its convection waned slightly as part of a diurnal fluctuation, but an AMSU pass suggested growing intensity.[13] Intensity continued to build as convection flared in the center on the night of August 14. This was most likely due to continuing decreases in the easterly wind shear.[14] Dry air and cooler air inflow from the north were slowing structural development, but nevertheless ragged bands began to form on August 15.[15] By mid-morning hints of a banding eye had been spotted on satellite imagery[16] and the storm continued to strengthen.[17] Visible satellite images showed a tightly curved band wrapping around the center later that day and microwave images suggested the formation of a partial eyewall.[18] Intensification continued through the night[19] and the storm was upgraded to Hurricane Dean at 5 am EDT (9 am UTC) August 16.[20] A strong deep-layered ridge continued to steer the systemed west, towards the Caribbean Sea.[21]
New one,...
I say it winds up in Vermont
I like the blue track. It doesn’t cross any land on its way to the gulf. And when it lands in Louisiana,(maybe) it should track north. It would increase the chances of rain in Memphis greatly. We are a foot and a half below normal and any rain would be most welcome. Just hope this thing doesn’t cause too much damage.
Carolyn
I suppose we could let ya’ll have some of what we don’t need. ;-)
It’s predicted to strengthen to a Category 4 (131-155 mph) by the time it passes Cuba. This is a very strong and dangerous storm. If it slams into the part of Texas that has been drenched by Erin the damage could be horrific.
Nothing like starting off the season with a bang.
Hurricane to be (john) Dean sounds like it might arrive with a mighty blow (eeaarrgh).
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