Posted on 08/15/2007 6:24:50 PM PDT by Plutarch
On the Republican side Fred Thompson is leading the race with 22%, followed by Rudy Giuliani (18%), Mitt Romney (17%), John McCain (11%) and Mike Huckabee (7%). Thompson’s lead has shrunk in the last two months. In June he led the next closest candidate by eleven percent, and overall his percentage has fallen five percent. In those two months Giuliani has seen his support increase by four percent, McCain’s has dropped four percent, and Huckabee’s rose four percent...
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Big SC Bump For Romney [Rich Lowry]
This just came across my desk.
Poll Watch: PPP SC GOP Primary
Public Policy Polling Republican South Carolina Primary
Thompson - 22%
Giuliani - 18%
Romney - 17%
McCain - 11%
Huckabee - 7%
Brownback - 3%
Paul - 2%
Survey was done August 13 of 749 likely primary voters, and has an MoE of 3.6%.
I can’t vouch for the methods and accuracy of the poll, but it seems South Carlolinians didn’t realize they weren’t supposed to pay any attention to Iowa Straw Poll headlines. Also, Romney was ticking up a bit nationally prior to the straw poll.
I thought the Gamecocks wouldn’t support a (gasp) Mormon?
58% of the Gamecocks think a Mormon is fair game for the Presidency.
And the plot thickens...
Actually, it could be even higher. A lot of people answer that kind of question thinking "well, I might by my neighbor won't...."
yeah, but they won’t go for a Liberal flip-flopper..
Thompson will drop out before he even gets in. What a nothing.
Thompson is doomed....
Ping!
Mitt is gaining in South Carolina....
I hear this place has September specials. Could be good timing, you may want to make an order for those restless nights that will come...
I hear this place has September specials. Could be good timing, you may want to make an order for those restless nights that will come...
Well, is he getting in this race or not ?
He said July and now he says September and people are losing interest in him, even in his native South. He’s as phony as a two dollar bill, open your eyes.
See you in September...
Also, the oldest subgroup was the least prejudiced and biased against a Mormon candidate. I guess with age comes wisdom. A little bit less of "Jesus loves me and hates thee" and a little bit more judging a person by the life he leads and virtues he embodies.
Thanks, that saves me a lot of effort...
Now can you tell me whom to hang my hat with?
Oh, I forgot, you don’t like anybody...
Ooooo, his team is amassing, sounds downright formidable. But wait, that's not all. FDT is getting his act together. Do you think that America is seeking a President in 2008, who in August 2007, is getting his act together?
“I'm taking the time that I've got allotted to me to get my team together, to get my act together.’
Uh, Fred, the Constitution has had the 2008 election scheduled for over 200 years. It isn't like it is a surprise or anything. Why do you need spend August 2007 getting your act together? Were you taken unawares?
Rudy Giuliani receives support from 18% of women and 19% of men. Mitt Romney receives support from 19% of women and 15% of men. Fred Thompson receives support from only 14% of women and 29% of men. Twenty-four percent of women are undecided while only 11% of men are undecided. If the undecided vote breaks similarly to the decided vote by sex, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani will pick up more votes from undecided voters than Fred Thompson will. Personally, I don't believe that this vote will break as the decided vote has broken. I think that the Giuliani vote has mostly peaked. Mitt Romney should get some support from the undecided voters, and his good standing with the women voters will help him. Fred Thompson will get support, but some of it will go to the less popular candidates.
In party affiliation, Rudy Giuliani gets 18% Democrat, 19% Republican, and 15% other. Mitt Romney gets 11% Democrat, 19% Republican, and 3% other. Fred Thompson gets 15% Democrat, 20% Republican, and 29% other. The undecided voters are 32% Democrat, 17% Republican, and 25% other. This crosstab says good and bad for Fred Thompson. First, the poll suggests that he's going to be strong at getting independent votes in South Carolina, but South Carolina is a very conservative state. The negative thing for Fred Thompson is that when we eliminate the Democrats and "Other" who may not vote in a Republican primary, he leads only 20% to 19% for both Giuliani and Romney. In Mr. Thompson's favor is the fact that John McCain is getting 12% of Republican vote, and many of them will jump to Fred Thompson.
Looking at age, Mitt Romney is doing the best (of the big 3) among voters older than 65 (22% versus 20% RG and 19% FT) but is doing the worst among voters 46 to 65 (15% versus 19% RG and 23% FT). Mitt Romney is doing best among young voters (under 30), but these voters don't vote as consistently as the older folks.
A problem for Mitt Romney is that he doesn't win in any area code. If I remember correctly, South Carolina apportions delegates based on the winner of each Congressional district. If Mr. Romney doesn't win any district, he won't get any delegates.
This poll is interesting. Thanks for posting it.
Bill
Go Mitt! I can just see those red foam Mitt ‘08 “mitts” waving in the convention hall!
One, do I want a President who uses some old idiom or displays a bit of humor in informal discussions...
Second, in all honesty, I am beginning to think the only people who should even consider running for President are those who decided to do so within the first hour of their conception in the womb and declare their candidacy no later than the 3rd trimester...
I see the light now, I need to rethink this whole thing...
Thanks...
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