[South Carolina] Republican race narrows

Public Policy Polling ^ | August 15, 2007 | PPP

[iopscusa]

IMO, this Prez Race is far, far from being settled, the polls are far from accurate....and DRIFTING indicates that the Front Runners are flawed and the electorate is keeping it’s powder dry. I would not be surprised if Fred, Newt, Al and/or Bloomber all jump in eventually and rekindle the whole race
...if that happens the Hill and Gulianni will have to engage on every level and that is a good thing!

[Lovebloggers]

He has not campaigned and we have no idea what his official platform is, or how he can handle himself in a national debate.

Any support for him to date is then akin to standing in wet cement, too easy to change at this point.

[normy]

I wonder if Al Gore is included in the Dem polls as much as Thompson is in the Republican polls? He may be a serious contender but until he declares he's not a candidate and shouldn't be included. I wonder who would be getting his 22% if they didn't include him.

I guess what I am getting at is a non candidate is included in polls where another candidate might get traction or distance himself from the pack if those % points were divided among the declared candidates. It smells to me like someone picking our candidate for us.

Its quite simple, keep him out of polls until he declares. Hell they had Gingrich and Thompson in some polls taking 25% of the votes away from declared candidates.

[normy]

Another possibility is that Mr. McCain may endorse Fred Thompson if he quits before the South Carolina primary.

i don't see McCain dropping out unless Fred offers the Sec Def job to him. Maybe Fred will drop out and throw support behind McCain. LOL. What would everyone do then?

[ejonesie22]

Well since he is not officially in and not officially a candidate, he won’t have an official platform. However there is more than ample information out there for one to assess his general and sometimes specific positions.

We have more than enough time even if he were to start at Christmas to assess the rest. The biggest out standings would be his debate skills and exact positions on a few more key issues.

Supporting anyone is is easy to change at this point, ask Thommy Thompson's folks, which leads back to the additional point of, what’s the rush...

He’s getting in, the delays were for legitimate legal and organizational reasons. Many of us have done the research on the man and like what we see. I think that is a fair deal right there.

[yellowhammer]

It's a surge for Mitt

[Betty Jane]

You seem very informed on this. I have a question about the other side. What are the chances of the Dems having a brokered convention? I believe they apportion their delegates by percentage of votes.

I would love to see floor fights, and all the wheeling and dealing. That's why I'll be voting for B. Hussein Obama in the Tennessee primary, if Fred Thompson gets in.

[Lovebloggers]

I am not putting him down, just pointing out that until he is in the spotlight of presenting his platform, debating his positions, etc. then we really can’t count on that support being solid at this time.

It is early yet, but I think he is letting Romney work out his kinks early on, and build a very strong and steady support base. Romney is being beat on (as is every other declared candidate) and is weathering the storm. Tough to take that away, no matter if Thompson comes on the scene in a shock and awe fashion.

[ejonesie22]

That could be true. I’ll never say that FDT is not a gambler at heart. Of course the reverse could be true, he maybe paying out Romney enough rope...

[Califreak]

If Thompson drops out, and his supporters drift over to Hunter along with the undecideds.... Landslide!

[tantiboh]

I just don’t see how these results jibe with the chart shown here:

http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Rep-Pres-Primary.php

[tantiboh]

~”...and unless we find out he’s gay or something...”~

Well, there was that cigar thing...

I do think Thompson has over-hyped himself. He may be able to win the nomination, but unless he comes out the rock star that he’s gotten people to expect, his support is going to decline. I just don’t think he can pull it off. Unfortunately.

[tantiboh]

~”John McCain is the only candidate who can make a strong “it’s my turn” argument this time.”~

I’ve been in other discussions where it was said that Giuliani is the real “it’s my turn” candidate. I don’t quite understand the rationale for this, other than his performance as “America’s Mayor.”

[WFTR]

You seem very informed on this. I have a question about the other side. What are the chances of the Dems having a brokered convention? I believe they apportion their delegates by percentage of votes.

I'm flattered by your comments. Thank you.

I'd be surprised if the Democrats have a brokered convention. I don't see anything to suggest that they will give enough votes to anyone except Hillary for the nomination to be decided at the convention, but I don't have any inside information from either side.

Each state runs their primary differently, but the Republicans generally have some delegates that are awarded by district and other delegates that are awarded statewide. Generally, there are three delegates per Congressional district that are awarded on a winner take all basis. There are also at large delegates that are awarded in other ways. Some states have a winner-take-all system for the other delegates. In other states, the extra delegates are awarded proportionally to all candidates with a specified minimum vote percentage. I think the Democrats are somewhat similar, but I haven't been reading as much about their system.

Bill

[WFTR]

I’ve been in other discussions where it was said that Giuliani is the real “it’s my turn” candidate. I don’t quite understand the rationale for this, other than his performance as “America’s Mayor.”

I suspect that the people in those discussions are just Giuliani supporters who are trying to make any case they can for their guy. I agree with you that he doesn't seem to have any legitimate claim to that dubious honor.

Bill