Posted on 08/10/2007 12:46:26 AM PDT by jsh3180
Natural weather variations have offset the effects of global warming for the past couple of years and will continue to keep temperatures flat through 2008, a study released Thursday said.
But global warming will begin in earnest in 2009, and a couple of the years between 2009 and 2014 will eclipse 1998, the warmest year on record to date, in the heat stakes, British meteorologists said.
Existing global climate computer models tend to underestimate the effects of natural forces on climate change, so for this analysis, Met Office experts tweaked their model to better reflect the impact of weather systems such as La Nina, or fluctuations in ocean heat and circulation.
Instead of using approximations, they used real data on the state of the ocean and the atmosphere to generate forecasts of climate change for the decade beginning in 2005 and running through 2014.
The projections suggested that while man-made greenhouse gases would raise temperatures over the long run, cooler water in the tropical Pacific and a resistance to warming in the Southern Ocean would counteract the effect of global warming in the early years of the decade.
The findings fit with the weather patterns seen so far, said Doug Smith, a research scientist at the UK's national weather service, the Met Office, in Exeter, Devon.
To test the accuracy of their new and improved computer model, Smith and his colleagues decided to run a series of "hindcasts," or forecasts for the years 1982-2001.
The new model yielded far more accurate "projections" for global surface temperatures than the previous model, Smith said.
The paper appears in the journal Science.
Another backhanded admission that Global Warming Is A Hoax.
The computer models are wrong because we cant build a proper computer model but the computer model says there’s gonna be global warming so the computer model is right, even though its wrong because we cant build a proper computer model.
Did I get close?
But global warming will begin in earnest in 2009, and a couple of the years between 2009 and 2014 will eclipse 1998, the warmest year on record to date, in the heat stakes, British meteorologists said.
Hmmmm...... where to start with these sentences.
Do these people really believe what they write? My goodness logic has completely gone out the window.
Lawrence Solomon's "The Deniers" (a series of articles on the view of scientists who have been labelled "Global Warming Deniers"):
Other References:
Interestingly, this forecast is similar to that of the solar scientists—until 2020 or so. According to the global-warming-is-caused-by-the-sun theory, the big chill starts in the 2020s.
you’re closer than the computer models will ever be.
Existing global climate computer models tend to underestimate the effects of natural forces on climate change
This is after they recommend we spend a few trillion dollars based on those very models.
What is actually required for a proper computer model?
Is it enough to put the computer on a pedestal with fancy dress colors? Or are spotlights and a runway required?
I’d like to model my computer. There seems to be a fair bit of cash to be made by one.
Btw do you happen to have saved a link on the 2020’s big chill thinking by the solar scientists?
bttt
... or 2009 or 2010 or whenever it starts to go up.
The chicken little crowd is dead wrong about the warmest year. The warmest year on record is 1934. They lie about most things to support their fantasy.
The chicken little crowd is dead wrong about the warmest year. The warmest year on record is 1934. They lie about most things to support their fantasy.
You can say that again!!!
(well, maybe twice is enough.)
:)
It wont be time to start worrying about warmer than sustainable/survivable temperatures until some time after the name of Greenland is actually appropriate and Britain starts producing quality wines from locally grown harvests.
you see there really is global warming except now it is not but it will. or maybe not
“Natural forces offset global warming last two years”
Seems redundant.
pinging for later
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.