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Natural forces offset global warming last two years: study
AFP ^ | Aug 9, 2007

Posted on 08/10/2007 12:46:26 AM PDT by jsh3180

Natural weather variations have offset the effects of global warming for the past couple of years and will continue to keep temperatures flat through 2008, a study released Thursday said.

But global warming will begin in earnest in 2009, and a couple of the years between 2009 and 2014 will eclipse 1998, the warmest year on record to date, in the heat stakes, British meteorologists said.

Existing global climate computer models tend to underestimate the effects of natural forces on climate change, so for this analysis, Met Office experts tweaked their model to better reflect the impact of weather systems such as La Nina, or fluctuations in ocean heat and circulation.

Instead of using approximations, they used real data on the state of the ocean and the atmosphere to generate forecasts of climate change for the decade beginning in 2005 and running through 2014.

The projections suggested that while man-made greenhouse gases would raise temperatures over the long run, cooler water in the tropical Pacific and a resistance to warming in the Southern Ocean would counteract the effect of global warming in the early years of the decade.

The findings fit with the weather patterns seen so far, said Doug Smith, a research scientist at the UK's national weather service, the Met Office, in Exeter, Devon.

To test the accuracy of their new and improved computer model, Smith and his colleagues decided to run a series of "hindcasts," or forecasts for the years 1982-2001.

The new model yielded far more accurate "projections" for global surface temperatures than the previous model, Smith said.

The paper appears in the journal Science.


TOPICS: Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: agw; econuts; globalwarming
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Fresh on the heel of yesterdays announcement that 2006 and 1998 were not the hottest years ever, comes this article basically stating "Ummmmm, it's gonna get warmer in a few years, really."
1 posted on 08/10/2007 12:46:28 AM PDT by jsh3180
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To: jsh3180

Another backhanded admission that Global Warming Is A Hoax.


2 posted on 08/10/2007 12:49:43 AM PDT by kaehurowing
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To: jsh3180

The computer models are wrong because we cant build a proper computer model but the computer model says there’s gonna be global warming so the computer model is right, even though its wrong because we cant build a proper computer model.

Did I get close?


3 posted on 08/10/2007 12:53:36 AM PDT by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: jsh3180
Natural weather variations have offset the effects of global warming for the past couple of years and will continue to keep temperatures flat through 2008, a study released Thursday said.

But global warming will begin in earnest in 2009, and a couple of the years between 2009 and 2014 will eclipse 1998, the warmest year on record to date, in the heat stakes, British meteorologists said.

Hmmmm...... where to start with these sentences.

Do these people really believe what they write? My goodness logic has completely gone out the window.

4 posted on 08/10/2007 12:55:11 AM PDT by Northern Yankee (Freedom Needs A Soldier)
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To: jsh3180
Basic References:

Lawrence Solomon's "The Deniers" (a series of articles on the view of scientists who have been labelled "Global Warming Deniers"):

Other References:


5 posted on 08/10/2007 12:56:25 AM PDT by sourcery (fRed Dawn: Wednesday, 5 November 2008!)
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To: jsh3180

Interestingly, this forecast is similar to that of the solar scientists—until 2020 or so. According to the global-warming-is-caused-by-the-sun theory, the big chill starts in the 2020s.


6 posted on 08/10/2007 12:59:42 AM PDT by sourcery (fRed Dawn: Wednesday, 5 November 2008!)
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To: Grimmy

you’re closer than the computer models will ever be.


7 posted on 08/10/2007 1:01:24 AM PDT by VideoDoctor
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Do they even hear themselves?

Existing global climate computer models tend to underestimate the effects of natural forces on climate change

This is after they recommend we spend a few trillion dollars based on those very models.

8 posted on 08/10/2007 1:01:49 AM PDT by D-fendr
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To: VideoDoctor

What is actually required for a proper computer model?

Is it enough to put the computer on a pedestal with fancy dress colors? Or are spotlights and a runway required?

I’d like to model my computer. There seems to be a fair bit of cash to be made by one.


9 posted on 08/10/2007 1:05:36 AM PDT by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: sourcery
I wonder if variations in the Sun's burning's might affect earth's temperature!


10 posted on 08/10/2007 1:06:46 AM PDT by ran20
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To: sourcery

Btw do you happen to have saved a link on the 2020’s big chill thinking by the solar scientists?


11 posted on 08/10/2007 1:08:19 AM PDT by ran20
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To: ran20

bttt


12 posted on 08/10/2007 1:12:56 AM PDT by SideoutFred (Save us from the Looney Left)
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To: jsh3180
...will continue to keep temperatures flat through 2008..

... or 2009 or 2010 or whenever it starts to go up.

13 posted on 08/10/2007 1:14:50 AM PDT by VanShuyten ("By the simple exercise of our will, we can exert a power for good practically unbounded, etc, etc.")
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To: VanShuyten

The chicken little crowd is dead wrong about the warmest year. The warmest year on record is 1934. They lie about most things to support their fantasy.


14 posted on 08/10/2007 1:18:48 AM PDT by oldenuff2no
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To: VanShuyten

The chicken little crowd is dead wrong about the warmest year. The warmest year on record is 1934. They lie about most things to support their fantasy.


15 posted on 08/10/2007 1:20:37 AM PDT by oldenuff2no
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To: oldenuff2no
“The chicken little crowd is dead wrong ...”

You can say that again!!!

(well, maybe twice is enough.)

:)

16 posted on 08/10/2007 1:25:38 AM PDT by PetroniusMaximus
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To: oldenuff2no

It wont be time to start worrying about warmer than sustainable/survivable temperatures until some time after the name of Greenland is actually appropriate and Britain starts producing quality wines from locally grown harvests.


17 posted on 08/10/2007 1:26:40 AM PDT by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: jsh3180

you see there really is global warming except now it is not but it will. or maybe not


18 posted on 08/10/2007 1:29:42 AM PDT by ari-freedom (I am for a strong national defense, free markets and traditional moral values.)
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To: jsh3180

“Natural forces offset global warming last two years”

Seems redundant.


19 posted on 08/10/2007 1:34:40 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (China: Walmart's answer to that pesky 13th Amendment.)
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To: jsh3180

pinging for later


20 posted on 08/10/2007 1:46:24 AM PDT by sure_fine ( • not one to over kill the thought process)
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