Why Each Leading GOP Candidate Will Not Win the Party Nomination

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 08/06/07 | Rasmussen Reports

[Fred]

2008 Republican Presidential Primary Why Each Leading GOP Candidate Will Not Win the Party Nomination

Entering the month of August, it is quite easy to come up with an explanation for why each of the leading Republican Presidential candidates will not win their Party’s nomination.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is personally popular and has a solid core of support. But, it is easy to argue that America’s Mayor can’t win the nomination because his views on social and cultural issues step with a more conservative political party (just 27% of Republican voters see Giuliani as politically conservative while 68% say moderate or liberal). In this view, there is a ceiling to Giuliani’s potential support and he will not be embraced by a majority of Republican Primary Voters.

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson is looking good as a non-candidate and has soared in early polling. But it is easy to envision Thompson tanking once he formally enters the race and is forced to endure the grind of debates and other routine challenges. Some Washington insiders expect Fred to fizzle and whisper questions about a lack of substance or fire in his belly. As with all such whispering campaigns, it is hard to separate legitimate expectations from the hopes of some insiders.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney looks good on camera, on his resume, and in his bank account. But, he has failed to gain traction with GOP voters nationally. Even his advantage in New Hampshire polling is disconcertingly small for those who dream of Mitt in the White House. After all, he has a home field advantage in that state and is the only candidate so far to spend money advertising on television in that state. If he can’t dominate the field under those circumstances, how will he gain enough support to win the nomination? Besides that, 31% of Republican Voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Finally, there’s Arizona Senator John McCain. Of the four candidates in double digits, it’s the easiest to show why he won’t win the nomination. Within his own party, McCain is viewed favorably 54% and unfavorably by 40%. It is difficult to comprehend how anyone could win their party nomination with such high unfavorables among the party faithful. His long history of provoking conservatives was highlighted by his politically disastrous performance during the Senate debate over immigration. If you consider the financial crunch being faced by his campaign, the massive staff defections of the past month, and the negative impact of spectacularly missed expectations, it’s easy to count McCain out.

But, while it is easy to explain why each of those men will not win the GOP nomination, one of them will. McCain is certainly the least likely. His only hope at this point lies in the fact that the other three may all lose ground in the coming months.

It’s also tough for Romney to win without some help. However, if Thompson falters, Romney might be in the right place to pick up the pieces for Republicans who want somebody other than Giuliani.

It’s easier to see a path to victory for Thompson or Giuliani. Thompson has to show he’s for real after entering the race while Giuliani has to demonstrate he can reach out to some GOP voters who don’t share his position on cultural issues. But, those are significant challenges for the frontrunners.

It’s worth noting that in polling for the week ending August 5, 38% of GOP Likely Primary Voters support the top two candidates thought most appealing for conservative (Thompson and Romney). At the same time, 36% support the candidates thought most appealing to moderates in the party (Giuliani and McCain). Eighteen percent (18%) remain undecided.

Those latest weekly numbers show Giuliani with 25%, Thompson 24%, Romney 14% and McCain at 11%. Mike Huckabee earns support from 3%, Sam Brownback from 2% and four other candidates split 2% of the vote. Those candidates, mentioned by name in the polling question, are Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, and Tommy Thompson (review history of weekly results).

[knyteflyte3]

Hopefully, we'll never have to get to this point.........

[monkapotamus]

"Some Washington insiders expect Fred to fizzle and whisper questions about a lack of substance or fire in his belly. As with all such whispering campaigns, it is hard to separate legitimate expectations from the hopes of some insiders."

[Mamzelle]

re: I think your cynicism has some validity, but you appear to have gone a bit over the top on Bush deliberately engineering 06 losses.)))

Some of them--Rep Hayworth, successfully.

Coburn, unsuccessfully.

Rove warned all amnesty opponents not to run on the issue or criticize the "Surrender to Mexico" GWB policy, or they'd lose support of the RNCC and RNSC.

Strategy--run an amnesty-sympathetic Rovian National Committee candidate in the primaries, and try to dry up the anti-amnesty candidate's money. Then, if the anti-amnesty candidate did actually win the primary, allow no money for him in the general election as punishment. After the RNC hands the seat to the Democrats, put out lots of media spin that opposition to amnesty is a losing issue. Well, it sure was, wasn't it?

We'd have probably still lost seats. But I wonder if we would have lost so many, if the RNC was actually loyal to Republicans?

Remember Tony Snow the morning after the election...? Remember his chirpy jubilation...."At least now we can move forward on immigration reform."

WE WAS FRAGGED.

[Major_Risktaker]

All of the candidates from the Democrats and Republicans fields are disconnected from mainstream issues and voters because America is Balkanized.

I can't connect with any candidate so far because it's like their all running on issues from special interest that have wacky agendas.

I guess I'm alone one this one...

[Politicalmom]

VERY nice!!Heeheehee

[SevenofNine]

Hey Monk I was on other site actually Poltico org today they saying Freddy going announced after Labour Day holiday stay tuned

[cynwoody]

You should add a fourth consideration: Electability in the general.

[jellybean]

Thanks for that video! It was great! It's one I hadn't seen before.

"Jim, it's Thursday...what's your position on term limits today?"

Bwahahahahaha...priceless!

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

You can’t frighten me with the Hillary Boogeyman. She’s less effective at pushing socialism than the aforementioned RINOS.

[Paulus Invictus]

That’s unbelieveable! She’s far worse than any of the RINOs.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

Any of the current crop of Bozos will give us the same thing as Hillary, only the idiots allegedly on our side will go along with them, where they would resist Hillary’s push to hell.

[altair]

Giulani’s personal life [that] will keep him from winning the general election.

I agree.

The fact that he's considered a front-runner now bewilders me. He had a much better chance of keeping Hillary! out of the Senate in 2000 than any other potential candidate (IMO), but dropped out.

What incentive is there to support him now? He has personal problems and what guarantee is there that he won't drop out again when a bombshell is dropped late in the game (a la Eagleton in '72)?

[altair]

Too many Senators/Congressmen without any real executive experience.

If you go by that criteria, then Hillary! is clearly the most qualified candidate in the nation. She's already been co-president for 8 years and has the "experience" of her "husband" to draw upon as well.

Is that what you want?

Personally, I'd prefer someone with the capability to grow into the job. Running as an outsider worked quite well for President Reagan and it's the best bet (IMO) this time too.

[altair]

I still like Fred Thompson. I just wish he would declare before he loses momentum. I expect he won't let that happen. If he does, it'll be his own fault.

You must be young. I can remember Ted Kennedy always placing at the top of Democratic party polls for president right up until the time he decided to actually run, then sank like a rock.

I don't mean to disparage Fred Thompson or your support of him. The more choice the better, in my opinion. Give the voters more choices and let us sort the candidates out.

[TomGuy]

outsider worked quite well for President Reagan

Reagan had 8 years of experience as Chief Executive (governor) of California.

There is significant difference between legislative senatorial experience and executive experience. Legislators tend to be bloviators -- adept at writing laws and giving speeches. That is not a demonstration of their executive capabilities, however.

Of the field (both parties), the ones with actual executive experience are Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee. Most of the rest of the field come from the ranks of legislators [and some of them are pretty rank -- lol.]